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Olympia Snowe (R-inc): 64 Matthew Dunlap (D): 22 Undecided: 15
Olympia Snowe (R-inc): 65 Jon Hinck (D): 18 Undecided: 17
Scott D'Amboise (R): 23 Matthew Dunlap (D): 31 Undecided: 47
Scott D'Amboise (R): 26 Jon Hinck (D): 25 Undecided: 49
Andrew Ian Dodge (R): 25 Matthew Dunlap (D): 30 Undecided: 44
Andrew Ian Dodge (R): 25 Jon Hinck (D):27 Undecided: 48
There ain't nothin' good about these numbers that I can see. An incumbent in the 50s is very pleased. An incumbent in the 60s is doing a happy dance—every few hours. Yeah, the race would be wide open if Olympia Snowe got teabagged to death, but PPP's Republican primary numbers are just as sweet for Snowe as their general election results are.
For kicks, Tom Jensen tested a couple of better-known Democrats to see how they'd fare. However, neither of Maine's two Democratic members of the House have expressed any interest in running. And here's why:
Olympia Snowe (R-inc): 54 Mike Michaud (D): 37 Undecided: 9
Olympia Snowe (R-inc): 55 Chellie Pingree (D): 36 Undecided: 9
Better, yes, but Snowe is still extremely strong even against established pols. I never want to say that anything is set in stone, but it's very hard to see how the contours of this race might change. It's starting to remind me a bit of then-Rep. Tom Allen's race against Snowe's Republican colleague Susan Collins in 2008. That contest started out with more promise, but Allen was never able to gain traction despite strong Democratic tailwinds and the benefit of running in a blue state. I'm just not sure how former Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap or state Rep. Jon Hinck can hope to do better.