The inspiration for this diary is the possibility that the Wisconsin state legislative map might be thrown out. The rationale is that the new map moves about 300,000 people from even numbered districts to odd numbered districts, thus they could not vote for their State Senator for 6 years. This rationale got maps thrown out in the early 80s: http://www.jsonline.com/.... Thus, I drew a map that would shift less than 173,976 people and with population growth that seems like it would hold muster. While the court could just order the legislature to draw the maps again or could draw the maps themselves.
Thus, I draw a hypothetical court drawn map. The incumbents largely live in their prior districts, with one exception.
Here is statewide:
Starting from the North:
District 25: 58.4-40.1 Obama, 51.2-48.8 2010 Dem Average. The Dem strength of the counties bordering Lake Superior make this a Safe Dem seat.
District 10: 49.1-48.9 Obama, 40-60 2010 Dem Average. With population growth in the Twin Cities exurbs, this district had to lose Menominee, making this a Safe R district.
District 12: 53-45.4 Obama, 41.9-58.1 2010 Dem Average. This district should be fine for Holperin but it would be Tossup otherwise.
District 29: 53.1-40 Obama, 42.5-57.5 2010 Dem Average. Just like 12, this district would be a Tossup. State Rep. Donna Seidel would be an excellent candidate for this seat.
District 23: 57-41.2 Obama, 45.9-54.1 2010 Dem Average. Menominee had to go somewhere and thus this district becomes Likely Dem. Former Rep. Kristin Dexter could be good here if Kreitlow sticks to his Congressional run.
District 31: 57.2-41.2 Obama, 46.8-53.2 2010 Dem Average. This district should be Safe Dem for Vinehout, but Likely Dem otherwise.
District 24: 58.9-39.1 Obama, 48.1-51.9 2010 Dem Average. This district would be Safe Dem for Lassa or Likely Dem otherwise.
District 14: 51.1-47.4 Obama, 41-59 2010 Dem Average. Fred Clark lives here, but I find it unlikely he could win against Luther Olsen if he did not win this past summer. So I would say Likely R.
District 32: 60.7-37.7 Obama, 49.9-50.1. I do not believe I changed the district at all, so it remains Safe D for Schilling or any other Dem.
District 17: 60.5-38 Obama, 48.3-51.7 2010 Dem Average. This is tick more Republican than the neighboring 32nd, so Dale Schultz should be fine, but without him it would be Safe Dem.
Lets go to the Fox Valley:
District 1: 54.7-43.8 Obama, 43.6-56.4 2010 Dem Average. This would be a prime pickup opportunity, buy it would remain a Tossup throughout the decade. Outagamie County exec Tom Nelson lives here and if he were to run, it would be a Likely pickup. However, he likely has Congress or Statewide runs in his future.
District 2: 50.3-48.3 Obama, 37.8-62.2 2010 Dem Average. I changed the configurations of the 2nd and 30th. The 30th oddly starts at Green Bay and goes up the Bay to Marinette. To clean it up, I compacted the 30th to be a GB and GB suburbs district. Since Cowles lives in Allouez, he lives in the 30th. Nevertheless, even without Cowles this district is Likely R.
District 9: 52.4-46 Obama, 39.4-60.6 2010 Dem Average. With Leibham, this district is Safe R, but without him it would be Tossup.
District 18: 51.3-47.2 Obama, 41.4-58.6 2010 Dem Average. This would be a pretty difficult for King to hold, so I would rate it a Tossup.
District 19: 55.3-42.8 Obama, 45.5-54.5 2010 Dem Average. Ellis would be fine in this district, but when he retires this would be a Tossup.
District 30: 56.7-41.9 Obama, 46.5-53.5 2010 Dem Average. Unless Cowles challenges Hansen in a battle royale, this district should be Likely Dem.
Lets head to the Southeast.
District 11: 39.3-59.5 Obama, 28.7-71.3 2010 Dem Average: Safe R
District 13: 52.8-45.8 Obama, 42.8-57.2 2010 Dem Average. I find this the most intriguing district in the map in that the current Senate Majority leader Fitz finds himself in a very marginal seat. Due to growth in Dane county, those districts had to contract and with the area around Dane county growing and becoming more Dem, this is a district trending toward the Dems. If State Rep Andy Jorgensen would run, this would be a heck of an election. Due to trends around Dane county, this would be Tossup.
District 15: 63.2-35.2 Obama, 53.3-46.7 2010 Dem Average: Safe Dem
District 16: 67.4-31.4 Obama, 62.4-37.6 2010 Dem Average: Safe Dem
District 20: 35.4-63.3 Obama, 25.5-74.5 2010 Dem Average: Safe GOP
District 21: 55.6-43.1 Obama, 46.2-53.8 2010 Dem Average: This district has to grow to take in Burlington, but this district still depends on how turnout in the city of Racine in. Thus it is Tossup. This would be great for State Rep Cory Mason.
District 22: 57.9-40.5 Obama, 47.6-52.4 2010 Dem Average: The Kenosha suburbs seems to have more a Chicago than Milwaukee flavor to them and thus should be Safe Dem.
District 26: 81.7-16.5 Obama, 81.6-18.4 2010 Dem Average: Isn't Mad-town wonderful? Safe Dem.
District 27: 66.5-32.3 Obama, 60.8-39.2 2010 Dem Average: Safe Dem
District 28: 38.2-60.7 Obama, 30.6-69.4 2010 Dem Average: Safe GOP
District 33: 37.9-61.0 Obama, 28.2-71.9 2010 Dem Average: Safe GOP
Now to Milwaukee:
District 3: 62.9-35.6 Obama, 55.1-44.9 2010 Dem Average: This district should be majority Hispanic by the end of the decade, Safe Dem
District 4: 81-18.1 Obama, 77.8-22.2 2010 Dem Average, 52.2 AA VAP. Safe Dem
District 5: 57.8-40.7 Obama, 51.8-48.2 2010 Dem Average. The conventional wisdom is that a court-drawn map would extend the 8th and 5th further out to the exurbs and thus put them out of reach. However, my approach from a Communities of Interest perspective is to have one district be largely inner-suburban and one outer-suburban. The result is the 5th being entirely within MKE county and Likely Dem. Jim Sullivan would be great for a comeback or State Rep. Cullen would be great for a run.
District 6: 85.7-13.4 Obama, 83.7-18.3 2010 Dem Average, 58.7 AA VAP: Safe Dem
District 7: 59.8-38.5 Obama, 54.5-45.5 2010 Dem Average: Safe Dem
District 8: 39.9-59 Obama, 33.4-66.6 2010 Dem Average: Safe GOP
So the end result is 17 likely Dem Seats, 8 tossups, and 8 likely GOP Seats.