OK

This is only a Preview!

You must Publish this diary to make this visible to the public,
or click 'Edit Diary' to make further changes first.

Posting a Diary Entry

Daily Kos welcomes blog articles from readers, known as diaries. The Intro section to a diary should be about three paragraphs long, and is required. The body section is optional, as is the poll, which can have 1 to 15 choices. Descriptive tags are also required to help others find your diary by subject; please don't use "cute" tags.

When you're ready, scroll down below the tags and click Save & Preview. You can edit your diary after it's published by clicking Edit Diary. Polls cannot be edited once they are published.

If this is your first time creating a Diary since the Ajax upgrade, before you enter any text below, please press Ctrl-F5 and then hold down the Shift Key and press your browser's Reload button to refresh its cache with the new script files.

ATTENTION: READ THE RULES.

  1. One diary daily maximum.
  2. Substantive diaries only. If you don't have at least three solid, original paragraphs, you should probably post a comment in an Open Thread.
  3. No repetitive diaries. Take a moment to ensure your topic hasn't been blogged (you can search for Stories and Diaries that already cover this topic), though fresh original analysis is always welcome.
  4. Use the "Body" textbox if your diary entry is longer than three paragraphs.
  5. Any images in your posts must be hosted by an approved image hosting service (one of: imageshack.us, photobucket.com, flickr.com, smugmug.com, allyoucanupload.com, picturetrail.com, mac.com, webshots.com, editgrid.com).
  6. Copying and pasting entire copyrighted works is prohibited. If you do quote something, keep it brief, always provide a link to the original source, and use the <blockquote> tags to clearly identify the quoted material. Violating this rule is grounds for immediate banning.
  7. Be civil. Do not "call out" other users by name in diary titles. Do not use profanity in diary titles. Don't write diaries whose main purpose is to deliberately inflame.
For the complete list of DailyKos diary guidelines, please click here.

Please begin with an informative title:

This is just a quick diary on the new (well, "tentative final") map for the Arizona Legislature as drawn by the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission (AIRC).  Note: When i was reading CF of Aus' fine diary, I tried re-running some of the below Index 2 calculations and I'm not quite getting the same numbers.  For example, I get 43.5, not 43.7, for the current District 12's score.  My apologies, although I doubt that changes too much.  I'd re-run all the numbers, but I think that's a task best left for another diary.

Intro

You must enter an Intro for your Diary Entry between 300 and 1150 characters long (that's approximately 50-175 words without any html or formatting markup).

Both houses of the Arizona legislature use the same 30 districts, with each district electing two Representatives and one Senator.  The AIRC helpfully provided several different "competitiveness indexes" for each district.

To compare new and old districts, I'll use the commission's Index 2 ("Average of 2008 and 2010, each year weighted equally")--since Dave's Redistricting App has that easily-available for the old districts.  Actually, not that easy--Dave's Redistricting App has an average of all 2010 and 2008 statewide races, which is not the same thing as weighting each year equally, but since the only 2008 race was the Presidential election, and since Dave's Redistricting App has that for each of the old districts, it's not that hard to figure it out if you also know the number of statewide races in 2010.  Which I got from the Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/...).  I'm assuming it's one in 2008 and 7 in 2010.  I don't know if DRA counts Corporation Commission races but that shouldn't matter too much.

Here are the new districts by this "index 2":

Rank                    R%            D%
1    District    27    27.4%    72.6%
2    District    3    31.0%    69.0%
3    District    7    36.3%    63.7%
4    District    19    37.0%    63.0%
5    District    24    38.5%    61.5%
6    District    29    39.5%    60.5%
7    District    26    42.0%    58.0%
8    District    30    42.6%    57.4%
9    District    2    42.8%    57.2%
10    District    4    45.6%    54.4%
11    District    9    46.7%    53.3%
12    District    10    48.0%    52.0%
13    District    8    51.3%    48.7%
14    District    18    51.5%    48.5%
15    District    6    54.7%    45.3%
16    District    28    54.8%    45.2%
17    District    20    56.7%    43.3%
18    District    21    57.8%    42.2%
19    District    17    57.9%    42.1%
20    District    11    58.6%    41.4%
21    District    1    60.6%    39.4%
22    District    16    61.2%    38.8%
23    District    15    61.5%    38.5%
24    District    23    62.0%    38.0%
25    District    22    63.9%    36.1%
26    District    25    64.6%    35.4%
27    District    13    64.7%    35.3%
28    District    5    65.6%    34.4%
29    District    12    66.1%    33.9%
30    District    14    66.4%    33.6%
And here are the old districts, with my calculation of the above index.  In each column I've put the party that controlled the seat after the 2010, 2008, 2006, and 2004 elections (relying on Ballotpedia and its archives, e.g., http://www.ballotpedia.org/...), from left to right respectively.  I've tried to note when control was split; unless I screwed up the largest letter should always be the State Senator:
           
01    District    02    26.6    73.4    D    D    D    D
02    District    16    28.9    71.1    D    D    D    D
03    District    14    34.3    65.7    D    D    D    D
04    District    13    35.3    64.7    D    D    D    D
05    District    27    36.3    63.7    D    D    D    D
06    District    15    36.7    63.3    D    D    D    D
07    District    28    37.9    62.1    D    D    D    D
08    District    29    39.6    60.4    D    D    D    D
09    District    17    44.0    56.0    D    D    D    D(1 Rep)
10    District    20    53.0    47.0    R    R (1 Dem)    R    R
11    District    25    53.3    46.7    R    D (1 Rep)    D (1 Rep)    D (1 Rep)
12    District    11    54.2    45.8    R (1 Dem)    R (1 Dem)    R (1 Dem)    R
13    District    10    55.3    44.7    R    R    R (1 Dem)    R
14    District    26    55.7    44.3    R    R (1 Dem)    D (1 Rep)    R
15    District    23    56.2    43.8    R    D (1 Rep)    D    D (1 Rep)
16    District    12    56.3    43.7    R    R    R    R
17    District    24    57.8    42.2    R (1 Dem)    D (1 Rep)    D    D(1 Rep)
18    District    30    58.5    41.5    R    R    R    R
19    District    18    58.8    41.2    R    R    R    R
20    District    21    59.6    40.4    R    R    R    R
21    District    09    60.8    39.2    R    R    R    R
22    District    08    61.4    38.6    R    R    R    R
23    District    07    61.9    38.1    R    R    R    R
24    District    01    62.1    37.9    R    R    R    R
25    District    06    62.2    37.8    R    R    R    R
26    District    22    64.5    35.5    R    R    R    R
27    District    19    65.8    34.2    R    R    R    R
28    District    04    65.9    34.1    R    R    R    R
29    District    05    66.8    33.2    R    R (1 Dem)    R (1 Dem)    R (1 Dem)
30    District    03    69.1    30.9    R    R    R    R
Sorry that looks so weird; here's a Senate-only version:
           
01    District    02    26.6    73.4    D    D    D    D
02    District    16    28.9    71.1    D    D    D    D
03    District    14    34.3    65.7    D    D    D    D
04    District    13    35.3    64.7    D    D    D    D
05    District    27    36.3    63.7    D    D    D    D
06    District    15    36.7    63.3    D    D    D    D
07    District    28    37.9    62.1    D    D    D    D
08    District    29    39.6    60.4    D    D    D    D
09    District    17    44.0    56.0    D    D    D    D
10    District    20    53.0    47.0    R    R     R    R
11    District    25    53.3    46.7    R    D      D     D
12    District    11    54.2    45.8    R     R     R     R
13    District    10    55.3    44.7    R    R    R     R
14    District    26    55.7    44.3    R    R     D     R
15    District    23    56.2    43.8    R    D     D    D
16    District    12    56.3    43.7    R    R    R    R
17    District    24    57.8    42.2    R      D     D    D
18    District    30    58.5    41.5    R    R    R    R
19    District    18    58.8    41.2    R    R    R    R
20    District    21    59.6    40.4    R    R    R    R
21    District    09    60.8    39.2    R    R    R    R
22    District    08    61.4    38.6    R    R    R    R
23    District    07    61.9    38.1    R    R    R    R
24    District    01    62.1    37.9    R    R    R    R
25    District    06    62.2    37.8    R    R    R    R
26    District    22    64.5    35.5    R    R    R    R
27    District    19    65.8    34.2    R    R    R    R
28    District    04    65.9    34.1    R    R    R    R
29    District    05    66.8    33.2    R    R      R     R
30    District    03    69.1    30.9    R    R    R    R
Some notes:
1) The new legislative map indeed has more swing districts than the old legislative map does now--although given how much Arizona's population has changed from 2004 to now, it's hard to know what these districts were like at the time of these races.  

2) As you can see, with the old districts, everything above 56% Democratic is safe Dem, of course.  Unfortunately, we don't have too much data on races in between, but you can see that Democrats could compete pretty reliably all the way down to 42.2% Democratic, even in a non-blue-wave year like 2004--at least, districts that have a 42.2% Democratic index now (see point 1).

3) Using that as a guide, it's possible that Democrats might be able to compete in about 18 or 19 of the new districts, since 18 or 19 of the new districts have a Democratic index of at least 42.2% or so.

(Let me know if I screwed any of those up--it's pretty late and it's easy to transpose things.)

Basically, there were few or no swing seats before redistricting, even if you look at just Obama's percentage (I know, McCain's home state effect, but Obama's percentage jumps from 48.3% in the old District 20 to 56.8% in the old District 17).  But Democrats were able to win some of these non-swing-seats in elections like 2004, 2006, and 2008.  2010 more-or-less reduced them to their 9 safe districts (plus the two Assembly survivors), but redistricting has added about 5 swingier districts than exist now while keeping 9 safe Democratic seats.  Since there are only 30 districts in play, control of the Arizona legislature could well be competitive in at least a few of the next decade's elections.

I would guess that control lies in Districts 8, 18, 6, 28, 20, 21, and 17.  

-District 8 consists largely of the eastern half of Pinal County.  

-Districts 18 has a fourth of Chandler and some of southern Tempe, Phoenix, Mesa.

-District 6 is the "Flagstaff district" and doesn't have other large cities.

-Districts 28, 20, and 21 form a contiguous band across north Phoenix, Glendale, Peoria, Sun City.  

-District 17 is mostly, and most of, Chandler.

If Democrats can hold onto their safe districts and win, say, four of those seven districts, then they'll control one or both houses of the Arizona legislature.

Maps and data from: http://www.azredistricting.org/....  In particular, the competitive data tables and the component reports.

Here are the ballotpedia pages I used:

http://www.ballotpedia.org/... has post-2006 and post-2004 for the Senate (with a few holes that I had to track down, hopefully correctly).

http://www.ballotpedia.org/... has post-2008 for the Senate.

http://www.ballotpedia.org/... has post-2010 for the Senate.

http://www.ballotpedia.org/... has post-2006 for the Assembly.

http://www.ballotpedia.org/... has post-2008 for the Assembly.

http://www.ballotpedia.org/... has the current Assembly.

Then this for the post-2004 assembly: http://en.wikipedia.org/...

Extended (Optional)

Originally posted to Xenocrypt on Thu Dec 22, 2011 at 08:43 AM PST.

Also republished by Baja Arizona Kossacks.

Poll

Will the Democrats control either house of the AZ Legislature before 2022?

68%46 votes
31%21 votes

| 67 votes | Vote | Results

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.