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Please begin with an informative title:

As we wrote over the weekend (Five things to know about the Michigan primary):

Who is ahead?

Mitt Romney's ahead. No, Rick Santorum. No, Romney. Too close to call. No, it's Romney.

Glad we were able to clear that up for you. But the voters will decide, and that's this Tuesday.

The latest polls don't clarify that much, though a Romney lead is suggested. Here are the polls from Feb 23 or later:
Public Policy Polling: Romney 39, Santorum 37, Feb 26, MoE plus/minus 4.8

Mitchell Research/Rosetta Stone: Santorum 37, Romney 35, Feb 23, MoE 3

We Ask America: Romney 37, Santorum 33, Feb 26, MoE 3.1

Baydoun Consulting / Foster McCollum White & Associates: Romney 39, Santorum 31, Feb 23, MoE 2.1

Rasmussen: Romney 40, Santorum 34, Feb 23, MoE 4

It will be interesting to see who shows and who votes, but note that Romney's superior organization has allowed him to bank votes with early voters. In Santorum's favor is the observation (Nate Silver) that he tends to over-perform relative to his polling. Still, the aggregate is a slight lead for Romney in a state he can't afford to lose.

We'll be covering all of this and more tomorrow night, so don't forget to join us!

Added: ARG is out with Santorum 36, Romney 35, Feb 25-6, MoE 4. That represents some Romney mittmentum as they had Santorum up by 4 four days ago.

Added: New Rasmussen poll has Romney 38, Santorum 36, Feb 26, MoE 4.


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