Public Policy Polling has new poll out for North Carolina's Amendment One. The proposed constitutional amendment, which goes before voters on May 8, would amend the state consitution to include:
“Marriage between a man and a woman is the only domestic legal union that shall be valid or recognized in this state.”The news is encouraging for Amendment One opponents. PPP's Tom Jensen says, "The amendment is still favored for passage, but it's looking like less and less of a sure thing."
"There is some reason to think a huge upset in two weeks is within the realm of possibility."The polls show support dropping 4 points since the last time PPP polled it, and opposition rising 2 points.
The current breakdown is 54 percent for, 40 percent against. This is a big movement from 61 percent support, 34 percent opposition from PPP's first poll six months ago.
(Continue reading below the fold)
Full cross-tabs can be found here (pdf). Unsurprising is the finding that only 31 percent of voters under 30 now say they support the amendment. Early voting started on Thursday (more info here) and will continue through May 8. Reports are that university campus sites have been very busy. A third of the registered voters on the Duke University campus have already voted.
Meteor Blades explained on March 30, "North Carolina voters approve anti-marriage equality amendment, until they learn what it does." This continues to be true. Jensen explains:
When voters are informed that the proposed amendment would preclude both marriage and civil unions for gay couples only 38% continue to support it with 46% in opposition.NC Policy Watch sees shades of Missippi's personhood amendment:
Given that numerous polls have also shown that support for the substance of the amendment collapses once people actually understand what it would do, it’s enough to make an observer think that the amendment could be headed for a defeat reminiscent of the one that befell the so-called “personhood amendment” rejected by Mississippi voters last fall. That amendment was way ahead in the polls just a few weeks before the November election and then lost decisively once people figured out how radical it really was.The sinking polling is remarkable given that these numbers pre-date all paid media, and are almost entirely to the credit of grassroots activism. This includes the official opposition campaign, Protect ALL NC Families, and multiple other pop-up groups such as Race to the Ballot, Raise Your Voice Against Amendment One and the Vote Against Project, to just single out a few.
With two weeks to go, Protect ALL NC Families hit the air with pair of ads on Monday explaining some of the collateral damage that may occur if the amendment is passed. One, Melissa, highlights a mother whose same-sex partner provides health insurance for the daughter they share through a benefits package provided by the city of Durham, North Carolina. If the amendment passes, Durham will no long be able to provide health insurance benefits to Melissa's daughter.
The second ad, above, Consequences, explores the very real possibility that it will invalidate domestic violence protection orders between unmarried men and women.
The assistant district attorney of Wake County, North Carolina put a very stark point regarding this:
Amily McCool, Asst DA of Wake Co: #Amendment1 would mean victims of domestic violence would have to marry their attacker for protection— Protect ALL Families (@protectNC) April 23, 2012
Both ads feature real life North Carolinians, not actors.
Protect ALL NC Families has forged unprecedented relationships with the state NAACP, Planned Parenthood, leaders of the faith community, and the Democratic Party of North Carolina to coordinate GOTV operations. Opportunities to work with the coalition can be found here.
What you can do to help defeat Amendment One:
- Sign up for a Courageous Conversation about Amendment One with someone you know in NC.
- Follow the campaign on Facebook and Twitter.
- Download social media tools and yard signs to show your opposition to Amendment 1.
- Volunteer to Call for Equality – a national, virtual GOTV phone banking effort against Amendment 1.