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Please begin with an informative title:

For any who may be reading this series for the first time: this is a thought experiment where I try to see what would happen if the size of the House of Representatives were doubled to 870 members from 435. This series is both highly theoretical and very unlikely to ever occur.

Two major things happened in California politics in the last couple years:

  • First, in 2010 voters approved a constitutional amendment mandating that the California Citizens Redistricting Commission, which was already drawing the lines for the Legislature, would also draw districts for the state's Congressional districts, instead of the Legislature. This is significant because without this amendment, we would probably have ended up with a bipartisan incumbent protection map that we got in 2001, locking in a 33-20 map, with only one seat changing parties in 10 years. Because of the demographic revolution that California is going through, the CCRC would have no choice but to draw districts that are more favorable to Democrats, while also ignoring incumbents' homes, throwing more than a couple into districts with each other. So through redistricting alone, we will probably have netted 4-5 seats.
  • Second, California moved away from the traditional primary system, opting instead for a system much like Washington's, the "Top-Two" Primary. All candidates of all parties run in one primary, and the top two move on to the general election, regardless of party. So two Republicans and two Democrats could end up running against each other in the general election, and we're all but guaranteed to see a couple of those this November.

Suffice to say, traditional California politics have been completely upended. Not being a nonpartisan commission, I decided to try my hand at a Dem-friendly map, Doubled.

Enacted Congressional map for 2012: North, South

Previous Doubling Diaries: PA, TX, WA, MT, NY, AZ, CO, KS, AL, GA, TN, IL, MD, WV, DC, New England, NE, MO, NC, MI, FL, SC, WI, LA, MS, UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID

Intro

You must enter an Intro for your Diary Entry between 300 and 1150 characters long (that's approximately 50-175 words without any html or formatting markup).

California


The Golden State gets a "holy fuck"-esque 105 districts.

Dave's Redistricting App has political data for two races: President 2008 (61-37 Obama) and Governor 2010, but only the two party vote (56.8-43.2 Brown).

1
VAP: 79.9 White, 11.9 Hispanic
36.7 Obama, 35.3 Brown

Open. Northeastern California, based in Redding. This is basically the successor to the current 2nd district, occupied by the now-retiring Wally Herger. It's a Republican vote sink, if you couldn't tell. State Senator Doug LaMalfa, who is currently running to replace Herger, was narrowly drawn out of this district into the 3rd, but he'd run here. Safe R

2
VAP: 80.8 W, 11.4 H
56.5 Obama, 51.5 Brown

Open; Wally Herger (R-Chico) is retiring. This is one of my favorite districts in this whole series. Based in the Dem-leaning Chico, it crawl east and south to take in the ski areas around Lake Tahoe, and goes all the way down to Death Valley. It's an outstate district that Jerry Brown won, so I'm going to call it Likely D.

Sacramento


3
VAP: 57 W, 25.4 H, 11.9 Asian
56.8 Obama, 55.3 Brown

Open. The Butte County portion of the district is cut off, but the main population is in Yuba City and Yolo County, which includes the college town of Davis. Because a college town is present, I'm going to bump this up to Safe D rather than Likely.

4
VAP: 79.9 W, 11.4 H
41.4 Obama, 39 Brown

Open. Sacramento exurbs, in Yuba, Sutter, Placer and El Dorado Counties. Tom McClintock may run here. Safe R

5
VAP: 76.2 W, 10.8 H, 7.1 A
43.8 Obama, 40.1 Brown

Open. Sacramento suburbs and exurbs, mostly based in Roseville and Rocklin in Placer County. Tom McClintock may run here. Safe R

6
VAP: 28 W, 15.2 Black, 21.8 H, 30.5 A
68.7 Obama, 70 Brown

Doris Mastui (D-Sacramento) lives here; racial clusterfuck, Asian plurality. Sacremento, with a couple enclaves of Parkway and Florin. Matsui didn't need an Asian plurality to keep getting re-elected, but I wanted to create district that could elect another Asian after she retires. Safe D, Asian hold

7
VAP: 56.1 W, 8.4 B, 18.9 H, 12.6 A
62.5 Obama, 62.4 Brown

Dan Lungren (R-Gold River), Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove) and John Garamendi (D-Walnut Grove) all live here. Sacramento, a couple other enclaves and Sacramento County. Lungren, who was already having problems in a 49% Obama district, would bail on this one for the much friendlier 9th, and McClintock, who was already a carpetbagger in his current district, would run in either the 4th or 5th, as noted above. So Garamendi would be able to represent two of his Republican colleagues, which I find delicious. Safe D

8
VAP: 55.9 W, 10 B, 19.1 H, 10.7 A
63.3 Obama, 62.3 Brown

Open. Sacramento. Safe D

9
VAP: 57.3 W, 5.7 B, 20 H, 13.4 A
51.2 Obama, 50.2 Brown

Open. Outer Sacramento County, including Citrus Heights, Rancho Murieta and Galt, plus parts of Lodi in San Joaquin County. Like I said, Dan Lungren would probably move here from the hopeless 7th, but he wouldn't be much better off. Lungren is a member of the überconservative Republican Study Committee, and he's barely survived in his 49% Obama district for two cycles now. Any decent Democrat could at least keep him below 50% in a presidential year. The only challenge is passing him. Dr. Ami Bera, who kept Lungren to 50.1% in the best Republican year in a generation, may follow Lungren to this district and try again. Swing

10
VAP: 41.4 W, 7.3 B, 36 H, 12.3 A
55.1 Obama, 52.2 Brown

Open; plurality white. San Joaquin and Sacramento Counties, based in Stockton. I'm guessing the Democratic side of the top-two primary would be dominated by Hispanics. And if they can capitalize of the lean of this district, they can win. Lean D, Hispanic opportunity

14
VAP: 66.2 W, 23.3 H, 5.5 A
66.4 Obama, 61 Brown

Mike Thompson (D-St. Helena) lives here. Wine County, based in Napa and Sonoma Counties. Lynn Woolsey (D-Petaluma) also lives here, but she's retiring at the end of this term. Safe D

16
VAP: 41.7 W, 15.7 B, 20.1 H, 18.1 A
68.9 Obama, 66.1 Brown

Open. Solano County, based in Vallejo and Fairfield, plus a small part of Concord in Contra Costa County. There'd be an opening for a minority in the top-two primary, but I couldn't say which one. Safe D, minority opportunity

12
VAP: 77.8 W, 12.1 H
63.8 Obama, 60.4 Brown

Open. Basically, the current CA-01 minus Napa County. The largest city is Eureka. Safe D

13
VAP: 70.2 W, 21.1 H
75.6 Obama, 68.2 Brown

Open. Most of Sonoma County, based in Santa Rosa. Safe D

Bay Area


11
VAP: 53.6 W, 27.5 H, 10.6 A
57.3 Obama, 51.8 Brown

Open. Parts of Alameda, San Joaquin and Contra Costa Counties. Likely D

15
VAP: 65.4 W, 5.6 B, 15.2 H, 10.8 A
78.5 Obama, 72.5 Brown

George Miller (D-Martinez), Ranking Member of the Education and the Workforce, lives here. Marin County, plus Hercules and Martinez in Contra Costa County. Moving Miller's home in with Marin County would suck a lot of the oxygen out of the candidates running to replace Lynn Woolsey, as most of them are from Marin. In fact, Miller may run in the 16th or 23rd instead, they each contain more of his territory than this district. Safe D

17
VAP: 29.8 W, 13.1 H, 50.6 A
81.2 Obama, 77.4 Brown

Open; Asian majority. The western, heavily Asian half of San Francisco County, though it uses water contiguity to pick up Chinatown on the eastern side. Safe D, Asian pickup

18
VAP: 57.4 W, 5.6 B, 11.9 H, 21.6 A
87.8 Obama, 82.5 Brown

Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco), Minority Leader of the House, lives here. San Francisco County. Safe D

19
VAP: 32.3 W, 5.1 B, 24 H, 35.5 A
81.8 Obama, 79.8 Brown

Open; plurality Asian. San Francisco and San Mateo Counties. The San Francisco portion of the district includes the Castro, so perhaps this district could elect an LGBT member of Congress. Otherwise, I imagine an Asian would have an upper hand in the primary. Or better yet, a gay Asian! Safe D, Asian opportunity

20
VAP: 21.1 W, 32.7 B, 23.2 H, 19.4 A
94 Obama, 93.1 Brown

Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) lives here; plurality black. A gerrymandered district in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, including parts of Oakland, Berkeley and Richmond, where I tried to keep the district as black as possible, to try to ensure it elects a black representative in the event Barbara Lee retires or passes, God forbid. Safe D, black hold

21
VAP: 55.2 W, 8.4 B, 14.6 H, 18.2 A
86.6 Obama, 83.7 Brown

Open. Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, based in Berkeley and Richmond. Good ol' Berserkeley gets no less liberal. Safe D

22
VAP: 31.4 W, 11.1 B, 28.6 H, 25.5 A
79.2 Obama, 77.4 Brown

Pete Stark (D-Fremont) lives here.; plurality white Alameda County, including the city of Alameda, as well as parts of Berkeley and Oakland. Stark no longer faces a primary challenge from Eric Swalwell, but Swalwell's balls to primary the Dean of the California delegation will probably attract other primary challengers in this district. Safe D, minority opportunity if open

23
VAP: 46.8 W, 9.5 B, 27.6 H, 12.7 A
67 Obama, 61.6 Brown

Open. Contra Costa County, including Pittsburg, Antioch and parts of Concord. Safe D

24
VAP: 66.7 W, 8.7 B, 19.1 A
63.6 Obama, 54.5 Brown

Jerry McNerney (D-Pleasanton) lives here. Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, along I-680, including the cities of Walnut Creek, Danville, San Ramon and Pleasanton. Safe D

25
VAP: 25.1 W, 17.3 H, 50.2 A
72.2 Obama, 66.4 Brown

Open; majority Asian. Fremont in Alameda County and Milpitas in Santa Clara. Mike Honda would likely run here, it contains some of his current territory and most of the territory in the district for which he is running now. Safe D, Asian pickup/hold

26
VAP: 34 W, 5.4 B, 28.7 H, 28.9 A
71.1 Obama, 64.5 Brown

Open. Alameda and Santa Clara Counties. Eric Swalwell, who is running against Pete Stark right now, lives here and would probably run here. There is also an opening for a minority in the top-two primary. Safe D, minority opportunity

27
VAP: 17.1 W, 26.4 H, 51.6 A
70.1 Obama, 66.3 Brown

Open; majority Asian. Santa Clara County, almost entirely located in the city of San Jose. Safe D, Asian pickup

28
VAP: 40 W, 34.2 H, 19.6 A
74.3 Obama, 68.2 Brown

Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose) and Mike Honda (D-San Jose) both live here; plurality white. Parts of San Jose, Santa Clara and Campbell. Honda would run in the 25th, as mentioned above. Safe D

29
VAP: 41.5 W, 12.9 H, 41.6 A
72.1 Obama, 63.3 Brown

Open; plurality Asian. Santa Clara County, including the cities of Sunnyvale, Cupertino and Saratoga. Safe D, Asian opportunity

30
VAP: 60.1 W, 17 H, 18.6 A
72 Obama, 64.8 H

Jackie Speier (D-Hillsborough) lives here. San Mateo County. Safe D

31
VAP: 57.5 W, 19.3 H, 17.2 H
73.7 Obama, 64.8 Brown

Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) lives here. San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties, including Stanford University and Silicon Valley. Safe D

33
VAP: 51.3 W, 36.1 H, 6.5 A
53.6 Obama, 49.6 Brown (Whitman by 550 votes)

Open. Modesto, Ceres and Turlock, all in Stanislaus County. I'm not positive where ex-astronaut José Hernandez is from, but the district he's currently running in contains Modesto, and it's also a little better for Obama and Brown than that district, so I hope he'd run here in that map. Lean D

Note: upon a little research, I found that Hernandez lives in Lodi, so he might want to run in the 10th.

32
VAP: 70.6 W, 20.9 H
38.6 Obama, 36.1 Brown

Open. Republican vote sink in the areas outside Modesto and Fresno. Incumbent Jeff Denham (R-Atwater) would likely want to run here, since the two other options he has are less than attractive. Safe R

Central


34
VAP: 36 W, 50.5 H, 7.7 A
52.9 Obama, 46.9 Brown

Jeff Denham (R-Atwater) lives here, but as I said, he may prefer to run in the open 32nd instead; majority Hispanic. Dennis Cardoza (D-Atwater), also lives here, but is retiring at the end of the term. Atwater, Merced and Madera. The awesomely named Blong Xiong, a Fresno city councilman, is currently running in a district south of Fresno, but may want to run in this district under Doubled, since there are no good options south of Fresno under this map. Sorry, Blongy. Swing

35
VAP: 20.9 W, 6.2 B, 60.5 H, 10.5 A
66.3 Obama, 61.7 Brown

Jim Costa (D-Fresno) lives here; supermajority Hispanic. Fresno. Costa, a Blue Dog (though just on this side of BDINO), may be too conservative for this district. Safe D, Hispanic hold

36
VAP: 53.5 W, 28.4 H, 10.5 A
47.1 Obama, 40 Brown

Open. Fresno suburbs, including Clovis. It's already only plurality white by total population, so this might trend our way in the future. For now though, Safe R

37
VAP: 33.1 W, 57.5 H
54.9 Obama, 50.3 Brown

Open; majority Hispanic. Pretty much nothingness, vast agricultural areas. Likely D, Hispanic pickup

38
VAP: 58.3 W, 30.1 H, 6.4 A
78 Obama, 71.8 Brown

Open. Santa Cruz and Watsonville in Santa Cruz County, and Elkhorn, Castroville and Marina in Monterey County. Sam Farr (D-Carmel-by-the-Sea) was narrowly drawn out of this district, but he'd run here, he's already represented the area for 20 years. Safe D

39
VAP: 42.9 W, 37.3 H, 14.7 A
66 Obama, 58.9 Brown

Open; plurality white. Southern San Joaquin County all the way down to Salinas in Monterey County. Opening for an Hispanic in the top-two primary. Safe D, Hispanic opportunity

43
VAP: 42.7 W, 49.2 H
40.6 Obama, 37.8 Brown

Devin Nunes (R-Tulare) lives here; plurality Hispanic. Tulare and Kings Counties, based in Visalia and Tulare. The exploding Hispanic population (55.1% by total pop.) will eventually make this competitive. Safe R for now.

South Central



Sorry for the tiny picture.

40
VAP: 53.7 W, 36.7 H
64.9 Obama, 59.1 Brown

Sam Farr (D-Carmel-by-the-Sea) lives here, but as I noted above he may prefer to run in the 38th for territorial reasons. Monterey and San Luis Obispo Counties, along Route 101. Safe D

41
VAP: 49.7 W, 40.1 H, 5.7 A
66.4 Obama, 57.1 Brown

Lois Capps (D-Santa Barbara) lives here; plurality white. A coastal district in Santa Barbara County, much like Capps' current district. Capps was weakened under the new map, but is restored here. Already plurality Hispanic by total population. Safe D

42
VAP: 63.5 W, 29 H
41.1 Obama, 37.2 Brown

Open. San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara and Kern counties. Safe R

44
VAP: 46.7 W, 43.1 H
38.2 Obama, 38.2 Brown

Open; plurality white, already plurality Hispanic by total population. Tulare and Kern Counties. Kevin McCarthy may want to run here instead of his home district, which is now decidedly swingy. Safe R

45
VAP: 31 W, 7.3 B, 54.7 H
51.1 Obama, 47.8 Brown

Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield), the House Majority Whip, lives here; majority Hispanic. Bakersfield and Lamont. Already 60% Hispanic by total population, this could easily be safe Dem within a couple cycles. McCarthy's current district is 38% Obama, so I think he would much rather bolt to a friendlier district, like the 44th. Swing, Hispanic opportunity

46
VAP: 58.5 W, 6.4 B, 29 H
39.8 Obama, 39 Brown

Open. Kern and San Bernardino Counties. This would be where most of the action to succeed retiring Republican Jerry Lewis would come from, I believe, along with the 89th. Safe R

47
VAP: 48.9 W, 42.3 H, 5.1 A
60.4 Obama, 53 Brown

Open. Ventura County, including the city of San Buenaventura, commonly referred to as Ventura, as well as part of Oxnard. Safe D

53
VAP: 39.2 W, 11.9 B, 40.6 H, 5.9 A
56.8 Obama, 49.5 Brown (Whitman win by ~700)

Buck McKeon (R-Santa Clarita), Chairman of the Armed Services Committee, lives here; plurality Hispanic. Los Angeles County, including parts of Santa Clarita and Lancaster, and all of Palmdale. McKeon runs to the 54th to avoid being vaporized. Lean D

54
VAP: 40.9 W, 7.9 B, 40 H, 9.7 A
52.4 Obama, 47 Brown

Open. Los Angeles County, taking in parts of Lancaster, El Monte and Pasadena. While slightly worse than the district McKeon is running for now, it's better than any other option he has. Lean R

89
VAP: 51.3 W, 8.1 B, 34.4 H
43 Obama, 39.3 Brown

Open. San Bernardino County, based in Victorville and Hesperia. As I said above, this is where the action would be on the Republican side when it comes to replacing Jerry Lewis. Safe R

Los Angeles



This is where it gets fun and complicated, tracking where current Congressmen live vs. where their current territory is (when I draw maps I make sure I don't know where anyone lives so it doesn't affect my linedrawing).

48
VAP: 56.9 W, 31.1 H, 7.7 A
59.7 Obama, 51.4 Brown

Open. Ventura and Los Angeles counties, including Malibu and parts of Oxnard and Thousand Oaks. Safe D

49
VAP: 61.8 W, 22.5 H, 10.7 A
57 Obama, 47.5 Brown

Open. Ventura and Los Angeles counties, including parts of Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Agoura Hill and Calabasas. Likely D

50
VAP: 50.6 W, 27.4 H, 15.2 A
61.9 Obama, 54.1 Brown

Open. Ventura and Los Angeles counties, including the Simi Valley and the San Fernando Valley. Safe D

51
VAP: 27.3 W, 58.2 H, 8.6 A
75.6 Obama, 71.8 Brown

Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks) lives here; majority Hispanic. Los Angeles City, in the San Fernando Valley (SFV). Sherman may want to run in the 50th instead, to avoid being defeated by an Hispanic in the top two primary. Safe D, Hispanic pickup if open

52
VAP: 27.5 W, 57.4 H, 10.3 A
64.4 Obama, 58.3 Brown

Open; majority Hispanic. The SFV, including the actual City of San Fernando. LA City Councilman Tony Cardenas, who is already running for Congress in the SFV area, will run here. Safe D, Hispanic pickup

55
VAP: 61.1 W, 18.2 H, 13.5 A
64.4 Obama, 57.6 Brown

Adam Schiff of Burbank (the Congressman, not the Law & Order character), lives here. Los Angeles, including the enclaved city of Burbank. Safe D

56
VAP: 61.2 W, 24.2 H, 7.6 A
77.4 Obama, 73.4 Brown

Howard Berman (D-Los Angeles), the Ranking Member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, and Henry Waxman (D-Los Angeles), Ranking Member of the Energy and Commerce Committee, both live here. LA, including West Hollywood and Beverly Hills. At the very least, this map dissipates the cannibalistic horror that is Howbrad Shberman. Waxman likely runs in either the 65th or 66th districts instead. Safe D

57
VAP: 6.5 W, 50 B, 37.6 H
94.2 Obama, 92.6 Brown

Karen Bass (D-Los Angeles) lives here; majority black. Los Angeles, including part of Inglewood. Bass gets the only majority black district in the state. Safe D, black hold

58
VAP: 46.7 B, 45.6 H
94 Obama, 93 Brown

Maxine Waters (D-Los Angeles) lives here; plurality black. Los Angeles, including parts of Inglewood and Compton. Ethically challenged Waters will probably not be long for the House, even if she is cleared by the Ethics Committee, as she is 73, so I tried my best to make a district that would elect another African-American after she's gone. Safe D, black hold

59
VAP: 11.9 W, 31.4 H, 50.5 A
70.5 Obama, 69.6 Brown

Judy Chu (D-Monterey Park) and Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-Los Angeles) both live here; majority Asian. Los Angeles, specifically part of the San Gabriel Valley (SGV). Roybal-Allard will probably run in the 64th instead. Safe D, Asian hold

60
VAP: 17.7 W, 28.7 H, 50.4 A
59.9 Obama, 55.4 Brown

Open; majority Asian. More SGV, including El Monte, San Gabriel, Arcadia and Temple City. It also has a fajita strip (chopstick?) to Walnut. Safe D, Asian pickup

62
VAP: 33 W, 5.6 B, 43.8 H, 15.5 A
72.9 Obama, 68.6 Brown

Open; plurality Hispanic. Los Angeles, including part of Pasadena. Safe D, Hispanic opportunity

63
VAP: 37.2 W, 38.7 H, 18.8 A
80.2 Obama, 79.9 Brown

Xavier Becerra (D-Los Angeles) lives here; plurality Hispanic. LA, including Glendale. Becerra may prefer to run in a district that more Hispanic, but it doesn't matter much, he's a rising star in the Democratic caucus. Safe D, Hispanic hold/opportunity

64
VAP: 19.2 W, 7.6 B, 55 H, 16.3 A
81.9 Obama, 80.9 Brown

Open; majority Hispanic. Los Angeles. Lucille Roybal-Allard, who is a white Congresswoman representing a 77% Hispanic district, may want to run here, just for some demographic breathing room. But she could really run anywhere she wanted. Safe D

65
VAP: 67 W, 11.5 H, 14.2 A
75.8 Obama, 69.3 Brown

Open. Los Angeles, including half of Santa Monica. Assemblywoman Julia Brownley, who is currently running for Congress, would probably love to run here, but could defer to Henry Waxman and run in the other Santa Monica district. Safe D

66
VAP: 48.1 W, 7.2 B, 30.7 H, 11.1 A
77.4 Obama, 72 Brown

Open; plurality white Half of Santa Monica, Marina del Ray and El Segundo. As I mentioned, Henry Waxman would either run here or in the 65th, and Assemblywoman Julia Brownley would probably run in the other. Safe D

67
VAP: 47 W, 5.6 B, 23.2 H, 21.4 A
60.1 Obama, 52.7 Brown

Open; plurality white. Los Angeles, including Torrance, Lawndale, Gardena and "The Beaches" (Manhattan, Hermosa, Redondo). Probably the least Democratic district in the LA area. Safe D

68
VAP: 40.1 W, 6.6 B, 37.5 H, 13.2 A
63 Obama, 56.5 Brown

Janice Hahn (D-San Pedro) lives here; plurality white. Los Angeles again, including Long Beach and Palos Verdes. Safe D

69
VAP: 20.8 W, 11.9 B, 38.5 H, 26.2 A
70.1 Obama, 67.8 Brown

Crazy Corrupt Laura Richardson (D-Long Beach) lives here. Los Angeles, including part of Long Beach. Richardson is so toxic anyone could beat her. Safe D

70
VAP: 6.1 W, 87.6 H
80 Obama, 81.5 Brown

Open; supersupermajority Hispanic. Los Angeles, including East L.A., Commerce and part of Montebello. Also the first district where Jerry Brown outperformed Obama, I believe. Safe D, Hispanic pickup

71
VAP: 15.2 B, 80.3 H
92.2 Obama, 91.7 Brown

Open; supersupermajority Hispanic. Los Angeles. Safe D, Hispanic pickup

72
VAP: 7.1 B, 87.9 H
87.1 Obama, 86.4 Brown

Open; supersupermajority Hispanic. Los Angeles. Safe D, Hispanic pickup

73
VAP: 15.5 W, 71.6 H, 10.9 A
67.2 Obama, 65.6 Brown

Open; supersupermajority Hispanic. Los Angeles, including Whittier and part of El Monte. Safe D, Hispanic pickup

74
VAP: 16.4 W, 9 B, 64.7 H, 8.4 A
72.1 Obama, 69.3 Brown

Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk) lives here; supermajority Hispanic. Hey, more Los Angeles! Safe D, Hispanic hold

75
VAP: 37.3 W, 45.8 H, 11.6 A
60.4 Obama, 56.1 Brown

Linda Sánchez (D-Lakewood) lives here; plurality Hispanic. Los Angeles. Safe D, Hispanic hold

76
VAP: 29.7 W, 50.3 H, 14.7 A
58.4 Obama, 54.5 Brown

Open: David Dreier (R-San Dimas) is retiring; majority Hispanic. Outer LA area. Likely D, Hispanic opportunity

Orange County/Inland Empire


61
VAP: 22.8 W, 22.5 H, 50.3 A
52.2 Obama, 47.7 Brown

Gary Miller (R-Diamond Bar) lives here, but he may not run here; majority Asian. This district would likely be dominated by Asians on both sides, between the Democratic-leaning Chinese/Taiwanese communities in Rowland Heights and the Republican-leaning Vietnamese communities in Westminster and Garden Grove. If Miller doesn't run here, I have no idea where, he's shown he has no problem with carpetbagging. Swing, Asian pickup

77
VAP: 30.5 W, 6 B, 53.9 H, 7.9 A
62 Obama, 58.1 Brown

Open; majority Hispanic. Parts of Pomona, San Dimas and Claremont in Los Angeles County, and parts of Montclair, Ontario and Chino in San Bernardino County. State Senator Gloria Negrette McLeod (D), who is already running for Congress against incumbent Joe Baca, would run here. Safe D, Hispanic pickup

78
VAP: 25.1 W, 51.2 H, 20.9 A
54 Obama, 50.4 Brown

Open; majority Hispanic. Gerrymander from Hawaiian Gardens to Santa Ana. Lean D, Hispanic opportunity

79
VAP: 28 W, 48 H, 20.5 A
54.6 Obama, 49.8 Brown (Whitman win by ~275)

Loretta Sánchez (D-Anaheim) lives here; plurality Hispanic. Anaheim, Garden Grove and Orange. Sanchez takes a hit in Obama performance, but she's a Blue Dog and a former Republican, so I don't feel too bad. With an incumbent, I'll call it Likely D, Hispanic hold

80
VAP: 68.6 W, 14.6 H, 13.6 A
45.6 Obama, 36 Brown

Open. Orange County, based in Huntington Beach. Dana Rohrabacher was narrowly drawn out of this district, but he'd run here. Safe R

81
VAP: 37.5 W, 37.1 H, 21.5 A
60.6 Obama, 50.3 Brown

Dana Rohrabacher (R Costa Mesa) and John Campbell (R-Shady Canyon, Irvine) both live here; racial clusterfuck, white plurality. Irvine and Costa Mesa, plus parts of Tustin and Santa Ana. Neither Rohrabacher nor Campbell would dare try and run in a 60% Obama district. Rohrabacher runs in the 80th, Campbell probably tries the 82nd. Irvine Mayor Sukhee Kang (D), who is currently challenging Campbell, would run here in a heartbeat. Safe D, assuming neither Republican runs here.

82
VAP: 61.1 W, 15 H, 20 A
46 Obama, 33.8 Brown

Open. Mostly the outer, more Republican parts of Irvine. As I mention above, John Campbell would run here. Safe R

84
VAP: 72 W, 15.7 H, 8.7 A
44.5 Obama, 32.9 Brown

Open. Outer Orange County. Not much else to say. Safe R

85
VAP: 36.9 W, 39.6 H, 18.8 A
51.2 Obama, 44.1 Brown

Open. Parts of Buena Park, Anaheim, Fullerton and Orange, all in Orange County. Due to Obama's unusually high performance in the OC, plus the likely large Republican bench, I'll call this Lean R, if not Likely.

86
VAP: 53.6 W, 24.1 W, 17.8 A
41.9 Obama, 33.7 Brown

Ed Royce (R-Fullerton) lives here. Fullerton, La Habra, Brea, Placentia and Tricky Dick's hometown of Yorba Linda in Orange Couny, plus parts of San Bernardino and Riverside Counties. Safe R

87
VAP: 30.4 W, 5.9 B, 50.1 H, 11.5 A
56 Obama, 51.4 Brown

Open; majority Hispanic. Chino in San Bernardino County and Mira Loma and parts of Pedley, Riverside, Norco and Corona in Riverside County. Likely D, Hispanic pickup

88
VAP: 53 W, 5 B, 32.5 H, 7.2 A
43.9 Obama, 37.1 Brown

Ken Calvert (R-Corona) lives here. Norco, Corona and Lake Elsinore in Riverside County. Safe R

90
VAP: 17.9 W, 13.4 B, 62.2 H
71.2 Obama, 69.9 Brown

Joe Baca (D-Rialto) lives here; supermajority Hispanic. Rialto and San Bernardino. Safe D, Hispanic hold

91
VAP: 38 W, 8.5 B, 42 H, 9.3 A
54.5 Obama, 49.6 Brown (Whitman win by ~650)

Open; plurality Hispanic. Rancho Cucamonga in San Bernardino County, plus parts of Fontana, Upland and Ontario. Opening for a Hispanic Democrat in the top two primary. Lean D, Hispanic opporunity

92
VAP: 25.7 W, 8.4 B, 55.2 H, 8.6 A
64 Obama, 60.6 Brown

Open. Riverside, plus parts of Fontana in San Bernardino County and Moreno Valley in Riverside County. This is probably where Mark Takano (D), a current congressional candidate, would run. Safe D

93
VAP: 38.5 W, 12 B, 40 H, 7 A
55.8 Obama, 52.1 Brown

Open: Jerry Lewis (R-Redlands) is retiring; plurality Hispanic. Redlands and Highland in San Bernardino County, Moreno Valley in Riverside County. Pete Aguilar (D), the Mayor of Redlands and current congressional candidate, would run here. Lean D, Hispanic opportunity

94
VAP: 42.9 W, 7.3 B, 42.3 H, 5.2 A
52.9 Obama, 48.6 Brown

Open; plurality Hispanic. Parts of Riverside and San Jacinto, plus smaller cities in the Inland Empire. The demographics have flipped but in a big way; the total population is already 37% White, 48% Hispanic. It might be Lean R in 2012, but I'll call it Swing

95
VAP: 60.7 W, 25.9 H, 6.1 A
42.4 Obama, 37.7 Brown

Open. Random cities in the Inland Empire. Maybe Gary Miller would run here? Safe R

83
VAP: 65 W, 16.8 H, 13.2 A
61.1 Obama, 50.5 Brown

Open. Another fun gerrymander, this takes Dem-friendly areas in Orange County like Laguna Beach (The Real O.C.) and crawls down the coast into San Diego County, taking in parts of San Clemente, Oceanside, Carlsbad, Encinitas and Del Mar. Safe D

Inland Empire


96
VAP: 43.1 W, 49.5 H
60.2 Obama, 54.2 Brown

Mary Bono Mack (R-Palm Springs) lives here; plurality Hispanic. Palm Springs, Cathedral City and Coachella in Riverside County; basically her current district minus all the Republican parts. Mack either runs in the 94th or 95th, or she retires to (continue to) live in Florida with her husband Connie. Safe D, Hispanic opportunity

97
VAP: 44.1 W, 47.5 H
50.7 Obama, 44.9 Brown

Open. Imperial, Riverside and San Diego Counties. Already majority Hispanic by total population, this would probably become a swing district pretty quickly. For now though, Lean R

98
VAP: 68 W, 20.9 H, 5.4 A
38.2 Obama, 31.9 Brown

Duncan D. Hunter (R-Alpine) lives here. Imperial and San Diego Counties. One of the reddest districts in the state. Safe R

San Diego


99
VAP: 60.7 W, 25.7 H, 8.6 A
50.5 Obama, 40.6 Brown

Darrell Issa (R-Vista), Chair of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee and Brian Bilbray (R-Carlsbad) both live here. Suburban San Diego. Either Issa or Bilbray could choose to run in the neighboring and much redder 100th, and I imagine they'd both want to, but Bilbray perhaps a little more, since he's more consistently in danger. Likely R with an incumbent Republican.

100
VAP: 55.6 W, 24.3 H, 15.4 A
46.9 Obama, 37 Brown

Open. San Diego County, based in Escondido. As I mentioned, Brian Bilbray would probably be the one who ends up running here. Safe R

101
VAP: 69.3 W, 12.4 H, 12.5 A
61.1 Obama, 51.3 Brown

Open. San Diego. Susan Davis (D) may decide to run here, it contains a decent amount of her territory and resembles her current district politically. Safe D

102
VAP: 22.5 W, 8.3 B, 55.4 H, 11.6 A
69.8 Obama, 66 Brown

Open: Bob Filner (D-Chula Vista) is retiring to run for Mayor of San Diego; majority Hispanic. San Diego, National City and Chula Vista. If (former) State Sen Denise Moreno Ducheny and current State Sen. Juan Vargas (both D) both want to be in Congress next year, they'd rock-paper-scissors between this district and the 105th, though they'd both want this one. Safe D, Hispanic pickup

103
VAP: 60.7 W, 5.6 B, 21.1 H, 9.3 A
58.2 Obama, 51.7 Brown

Susan Davis (D-San Diego) lives here. San Diego plus parts of Bostonia and Santee. As I mentioned above, Davis could choose to run either here or in the 101st. Safe D

104
VAP: 47 W, 10.8 B, 26.1 H, 12.7 A
58.2 Obama, 52.2 Brown

Open; plurality white. San Diego and a handful of its suburbs, including Lemon Grove and La Mesa. Safe D

105
VAP: 27.5 W, 5.7 B, 50 H, 14.3 A
58.9 Obama, 53.1 Brown

Open; majority Hispanic. San Diego, Coronado, Imperial Beach and part of Chula Vista. As I mentioned above, Juan Vargas and Denise Moreno Ducheny would pick between this district and the 102nd for themselves. Safe D, Hispanic pickup
.
.
.
.
.
*whew*

So, from a 34-19 delegation, where the map was all but locked in for a decade, to a commission-map that is almost impossible to handicap but appears to net about 4-5 seats for Team Blue. And then to my map, which by my count is 78-22-5, more than doubling the number of Democratic seats.

This includes 11 new Hispanic seats, adding to the current 6 member, plus 9 Hispanic opportunity seats. There are also 4 new Asian majority seats, more than Doubling California's current Asian delegation, joining Doris Matsui, Mike Honda and Judy Chu. There are also two Asian opportunity seats. No new African-American seats unfortunately, the population can't support any more. Karen Bass, Maxine Waters and Barbara Lee will all be returning though. There are also 2 seats that I call "minority opportunity", where there's a clear opening for a minority but it's unclear which group has an advantage.

One of my favorite (when it comes to Democrats) and most frustrating (when it comes to Republicans) parts about this series is it's damn hard to outright eliminate one of the current Congressmen. The only one that I come close to eliminating, other than the ones that were already retiring, is Mary Bono Mack.

With California, the entire House stands at 456-298-63

Alright well this has been my white whale of this whole series, it took a couple months, so I would love your input/comments/questions.

Next: Wrapping up the series with all the remaining states (Arkansas, Kentucky, Minnesota and Oregon)

Extended (Optional)

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