OK

This is only a Preview!

You must Publish this diary to make this visible to the public,
or click 'Edit Diary' to make further changes first.

Posting a Diary Entry

Daily Kos welcomes blog articles from readers, known as diaries. The Intro section to a diary should be about three paragraphs long, and is required. The body section is optional, as is the poll, which can have 1 to 15 choices. Descriptive tags are also required to help others find your diary by subject; please don't use "cute" tags.

When you're ready, scroll down below the tags and click Save & Preview. You can edit your diary after it's published by clicking Edit Diary. Polls cannot be edited once they are published.

If this is your first time creating a Diary since the Ajax upgrade, before you enter any text below, please press Ctrl-F5 and then hold down the Shift Key and press your browser's Reload button to refresh its cache with the new script files.

ATTENTION: READ THE RULES.

  1. One diary daily maximum.
  2. Substantive diaries only. If you don't have at least three solid, original paragraphs, you should probably post a comment in an Open Thread.
  3. No repetitive diaries. Take a moment to ensure your topic hasn't been blogged (you can search for Stories and Diaries that already cover this topic), though fresh original analysis is always welcome.
  4. Use the "Body" textbox if your diary entry is longer than three paragraphs.
  5. Any images in your posts must be hosted by an approved image hosting service (one of: imageshack.us, photobucket.com, flickr.com, smugmug.com, allyoucanupload.com, picturetrail.com, mac.com, webshots.com, editgrid.com).
  6. Copying and pasting entire copyrighted works is prohibited. If you do quote something, keep it brief, always provide a link to the original source, and use the <blockquote> tags to clearly identify the quoted material. Violating this rule is grounds for immediate banning.
  7. Be civil. Do not "call out" other users by name in diary titles. Do not use profanity in diary titles. Don't write diaries whose main purpose is to deliberately inflame.
For the complete list of DailyKos diary guidelines, please click here.

Please begin with an informative title:

A quick follow-up to today's post on the Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP poll, while you're on the edge of your seat waiting for Wisconsin results and a bonanza of additional primary contests today.

The poll asked "Does Mitt Romney’s work at Bain Capital make you more or less likely to vote for him, or does it not make a difference?"  and also "Do Mitt Romney’s ties to Donald Trump make you more or less likely to vote for him, or does it not make a difference?"

Now, I suspect most people who answer questions like this by saying it does make them more or less likely to vote one way or another are just hard-core partisans registering their pleasure/displeasure with the issue at hand.  But thankfully we've got the raw data at hand to take a look at those who aren't hard-core partisans.

First, those who say they are undecided in who they will vote for for President.  What do they think of Bain and Trump?  Well, there's only 70 of them.  So the margin of error is around plus or minus 12 points at 50%.  But heck, let's see what we see... (all numbers from results after weighting by age).

Bain: 28% less likely, 7% more likely
Trump: 43% less likely, 8% more likely
Bain OR Trump: 51% less likely, 15% more likely
Bain AND Trump: 20% less likely, 1% more likely

It's pretty clear that Romney's ties to Bain and Trump hurt him among undecided voters.  About half of undecided voters say they are less likely to vote for him because of his ties to either Bain or Trump.  That seems pretty important.

What about weak Romney voters?  Can they be peeled away with these issues?  One way to define these voters is people who say they'll vote for Romney but also say they have an unfavorable opinion of Romney or they're not sure.  There's 63 of these people in the poll.  

Bain: 20% less likely, 14% more likely
Trump: 16% less likely, 17% more likely
Bain OR Trump: 34% less likely, 30% more likely
Bain AND Trump: 4% less likely, 6% more likely

That's essentially a draw.  So these issues don't really help pull away weak Romney supporters, but don't really hurt either.

Bain and Trump are two issues that undecideds don't like about Romney, but that are a wash with weak Romney supporters.  No wonder we've been hearing a lot about them.

Intro

You must enter an Intro for your Diary Entry between 300 and 1150 characters long (that's approximately 50-175 words without any html or formatting markup).

Extended (Optional)

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.