Nate Silver, at www.fivethirtyeight.com , lists what he calls the tipping point states.
These are the states that are most likely to bring a candidate over 270 Electoral votes.
So, in other words, let us say that only one state is going to decide the election, a state that is considered a "swing" state. Which are the most likely states to fit that criteria and decide the Presidential election ?
State Obama Chance of Winning Rmoney chance of winning
Ohio 65 35
VA 61 39
FL 53 47
PA 81 19
CO 67 33
MI 80 20
Iowa 67 33
NV 75 25
NH 68 32
WI 86 14
Well, there it is.
Above are the ten states most likely to tip the election in one candidate's favor if the election is close. Nationally, the popular vote will be competitive. Electorally, probably not so much.
President Obama and his team know how to win. Hit Rmoney with Bain in the swing states for all they are worth. Do it, do it in every swing state, all the time !
They are not worried about improving their numbers in Alabama or Mississippi ...
Those are states that they will not win, do not need to win, and they know it.
Let Rmoney run up the vote total and win by 50 in those states. If he wins by 50 % or by a single vote, those states still only carry the same electoral vote weight.
Nor will President Obama waste resources on states that are reliably safe, completely secure. Let Rmoney spend all his time and money on Pennsylvania. Rmoney has zero chance of winning that state, just like John McCain. Rmoney can narrow the margin there, but he cannot get to 50 %. He just can't. The numbers do not work.
Rmoney can get close in states he can't win (in vote totals) and will crush us in states that we will never contest. And that will make the national popular vote total close.
If the national popular vote total mattered, then President Obama and his team would focus on CA and NY and maximizing vote totals in secure democratic states.
Since it is the electoral vote that matters, he is going to go all in on the states most likely to decide the election. Just more eleventhy dimensional chess from the Grandmaster !
Go President Obama !
2:35 PM PT: Electoral optimism makes me work harder. I do not want anyone to think that this diary encourages complacency. It does not. I do not encourage complacency. I want all of us to work our hearts out for POTUS and for a Democratic House and to retain the US Senate. This is a snapshot in time. Let us remember that. It can and will change for the worse if we get complacent. Issues to overcome: their billion dollar war chest and their voter suppression legislation.