OK

This is only a Preview!

You must Publish this diary to make this visible to the public,
or click 'Edit Diary' to make further changes first.

Posting a Diary Entry

Daily Kos welcomes blog articles from readers, known as diaries. The Intro section to a diary should be about three paragraphs long, and is required. The body section is optional, as is the poll, which can have 1 to 15 choices. Descriptive tags are also required to help others find your diary by subject; please don't use "cute" tags.

When you're ready, scroll down below the tags and click Save & Preview. You can edit your diary after it's published by clicking Edit Diary. Polls cannot be edited once they are published.

If this is your first time creating a Diary since the Ajax upgrade, before you enter any text below, please press Ctrl-F5 and then hold down the Shift Key and press your browser's Reload button to refresh its cache with the new script files.

ATTENTION: READ THE RULES.

  1. One diary daily maximum.
  2. Substantive diaries only. If you don't have at least three solid, original paragraphs, you should probably post a comment in an Open Thread.
  3. No repetitive diaries. Take a moment to ensure your topic hasn't been blogged (you can search for Stories and Diaries that already cover this topic), though fresh original analysis is always welcome.
  4. Use the "Body" textbox if your diary entry is longer than three paragraphs.
  5. Any images in your posts must be hosted by an approved image hosting service (one of: imageshack.us, photobucket.com, flickr.com, smugmug.com, allyoucanupload.com, picturetrail.com, mac.com, webshots.com, editgrid.com).
  6. Copying and pasting entire copyrighted works is prohibited. If you do quote something, keep it brief, always provide a link to the original source, and use the <blockquote> tags to clearly identify the quoted material. Violating this rule is grounds for immediate banning.
  7. Be civil. Do not "call out" other users by name in diary titles. Do not use profanity in diary titles. Don't write diaries whose main purpose is to deliberately inflame.
For the complete list of DailyKos diary guidelines, please click here.

Please begin with an informative title:

Todd Akin caricature
He's not doomed, even if he stays in.
Obviously, I don't want Todd Akin to drop out of the Missouri Senate race. I want Democrats to keep the Senate after all. So he shouldn't drop out because I don't want him to drop out.

But the only thing that matters is what Akin himself thinks.

With rumors that the NRSC and Karl Rove's Crossroads are pulling out of Missouri so long as he's in the race, chances are he's a goner. He'd be hard-pressed to stay in the race without their millions backing him up. Missouri might be getting redder, but it's not Oklahoma just yet.

Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid improbably survived his 2010 race by manipulating the GOP primary to get himself crazy Sharron Angle as an opponent. But that was Nevada—a purple-to-blue state with a burgeoning Latino population.

Missouri is pretty much the opposite of Nevada—a red-and-getting-redder state with demographics that generally favor Republicans—it ranks just 38th amongst all states in Latino population (2.1 percent), 13th in persons older than 65 (13.5 percent), and 16th in white evangelicals (27 percent).

Freshman Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill won by just 2.4 percent in the Democratic wave (and non-presidential) year of 2006, and has—by far—suffered the worst poll numbers of any incumbent this cycle.

The bottom line is this: Assuming he was adequately funded, Akin would still be favored given his state's demographics and the woeful state of Claire McCaskill's favorability numbers.

Obviously, any other Republican at this point would be more favored, but that doesn't mean Akin is doomed. Far from it. And if Akin wants to bring his special brand of crazy to the Senate, this is his only chance. He's got to ride out this storm.

His problem of course, is that he said out loud what Republicans want kept hidden from voters. Of course they all believe this "forcible rape" crap. There were 227 co-sponsors of that legislation, including Paul Ryan himself! But with their potential Senate majority once again endangered by the crazy (like it was in 2010), establishment Republicans clearly have less tolerance for this kind of nonsense.

Social conservatives have rallied around Akin, like the Family Research Council and the American Family Association's Bryan Fischer. They're salivating at the possibility of having a true believer in the Upper Chamber, and one who isn't constrained by niceties such as "science" and "reality." However, they don't have the kind of money needed to keep him afloat.

The other potential savior could've been Rush Limbaugh, but he's on vacation this week. Too bad for Akin.

As I publish this, Twitter is divided between rumors that Akin is quitting tomorrow, and rumors that he won't. The obvious move would be to concede and quit. But if he decides to stick with it, it wouldn't be irrational in the least.

Intro

You must enter an Intro for your Diary Entry between 300 and 1150 characters long (that's approximately 50-175 words without any html or formatting markup).

Extended (Optional)

Originally posted to kos on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 11:46 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.