OK

This is only a Preview!

You must Publish this diary to make this visible to the public,
or click 'Edit Diary' to make further changes first.

Posting a Diary Entry

Daily Kos welcomes blog articles from readers, known as diaries. The Intro section to a diary should be about three paragraphs long, and is required. The body section is optional, as is the poll, which can have 1 to 15 choices. Descriptive tags are also required to help others find your diary by subject; please don't use "cute" tags.

When you're ready, scroll down below the tags and click Save & Preview. You can edit your diary after it's published by clicking Edit Diary. Polls cannot be edited once they are published.

If this is your first time creating a Diary since the Ajax upgrade, before you enter any text below, please press Ctrl-F5 and then hold down the Shift Key and press your browser's Reload button to refresh its cache with the new script files.

ATTENTION: READ THE RULES.

  1. One diary daily maximum.
  2. Substantive diaries only. If you don't have at least three solid, original paragraphs, you should probably post a comment in an Open Thread.
  3. No repetitive diaries. Take a moment to ensure your topic hasn't been blogged (you can search for Stories and Diaries that already cover this topic), though fresh original analysis is always welcome.
  4. Use the "Body" textbox if your diary entry is longer than three paragraphs.
  5. Any images in your posts must be hosted by an approved image hosting service (one of: imageshack.us, photobucket.com, flickr.com, smugmug.com, allyoucanupload.com, picturetrail.com, mac.com, webshots.com, editgrid.com).
  6. Copying and pasting entire copyrighted works is prohibited. If you do quote something, keep it brief, always provide a link to the original source, and use the <blockquote> tags to clearly identify the quoted material. Violating this rule is grounds for immediate banning.
  7. Be civil. Do not "call out" other users by name in diary titles. Do not use profanity in diary titles. Don't write diaries whose main purpose is to deliberately inflame.
For the complete list of DailyKos diary guidelines, please click here.

Please begin with an informative title:

The two daily tracking polls, Rasmussen and Gallup, have had a rightward lean this campaign season. One of these polls has a history of weird results, especially polls released many months before election day. Indeed Rasmussen, which is the only poll to show Mitt Romney ahead at least often as President Obama, inexplicably revealed an  Obama swing just before the start of the Republican convention. At the time, no other poll was showing such movement. Not surprisingly, their post-convention polling has Romney ahead. A big bounce! Even Nate Silver, who is very cautious about questioning polls said this:

the two-point lead that Rasmussen Reports had given to Mr. Obama before the convention was a bit unusual for them.
Okay, forget about Rasmussen for a minute. We have the other tracker to consider, the one Nate says he has a lot of respect for, Gallup. While their sampling technique has resulted in polling slightly less favorable to Obama than the average, the day-to-day swings have made sense, usually tied to actual campaign incidents.  So if Romney gets a convention bounce, they should reveal it.

Details below.

Intro

You must enter an Intro for your Diary Entry between 300 and 1150 characters long (that's approximately 50-175 words without any html or formatting markup).

Here are the most recent results of the 7-day Gallup tracker:

RELEASE  7-DAY RANGE      O       R
8/22/2012  08/15-21/2012    45    47
8/23/2012  08/16-22/2012    46    46
8/24/2012  08/17-23/2012    46    46
8/25/2012  08/18-24/2012    46    46
8/26/2012  08/19-25/2012    46    46
8/27/2012  08/20-26/2012    46    47
8/28/2012  08/21-27/2012    46    47
8/29/2012  08/22-28/2012    47    46
8/30/2012  08/23-29/2012    47    46
8/31/2012  08/24-30/2012    47    46
9/01/2012  08/25-31/2012    47    46

The last one listed there includes polling done on Friday, the day after the Romney and Eastwood appearances. It also includes 2 days of polling after Paul Ryan's speech and 3 days of polling after Ann Romney and Chris Christie.

First impression: NO BOUNCE!

President Obama maintains his 47-46 lead.  However, we can't be sure there is no bounce because 1) there are days in the 7-day average from before the convention started and 2) the most recent day of polling, the only day after Romney/Eastwood, could show improvement for Romney which is just too small to move the 7-day average.

Here's an attempt at deducing the day-to-day polling over the last 10 days, a Romney  "best case scenario" with the math still adding up:

Date   O    R
8/20:  46  48
8/21:  46  48
8/22:  45  47
8/23:  45  47
8/24:  47  47
8/25:  47  45
8/26:  47  45
8/27:  47  46
8/28:  47  46
8/29:  47  46  
8/30:  46  47
8/31:  45  48

I think this is just about the best case scenario for Romney's August 31 polling, Romney +3. It could easily be the case that polling on the date was more like Obama 47, Romney 46 or something in between. But even a Romney +3 would have to be repeated for several days to move the Gallup 7-day average significantly. And before the full 7-day average is post-RNC, the Democratic Convention will have been underway for several days.

Romney's Gallup tracker "bounce" is going to be between 0 and +2. Historically, that will put it on the lower end of convention bounces.

One other note on the Gallup poll. The sum of Obama and Romney has been 93 for a week now after months of being mostly 92. The undecideds are slowing coming off the fence.

Extended (Optional)

Poll

The Gallup Tracker RNC "bounce" will be

12%36 votes
17%52 votes
23%70 votes
12%36 votes
4%14 votes
1%3 votes
3%9 votes
24%72 votes

| 292 votes | Vote | Results

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.