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Please begin with an informative title:

Yesterday, Obama's approval/disapproval figures were 50/44 or +6 favorable.
Today's figures were the same 50/44.

Why is this great news and sign of a continued strong bounce?

Look at the daily results of the 3 day moving average:

08/25-27/2012    43    48
08/26-28/2012    43    47
08/27-29/2012    44    47
08/28-30/2012    45    46
08/29-31/2012    45    46
08/30-09/1/2012    43    48
08/31-09/2/2012    45    48
09/1-3/2012    45    48
09/2-4/2012    47    47
09/3-5/2012    49    45
09/4-6/2012    52    43
09/5-7/2012    52    42
09/6-8/2012    50    44
09/7-9/2012    50    44

Obama's best day all year just fell out of the 3-day moving average for the approval ratings.  The 9/4-6 results were 5 points better than the 9/3-5 results, which means that he was actually around +15 on 9/6 (to raise the 3 day average by 5 points).

So Obama lost a +15 day from the moving average but didn't drop a single point based on the polling from yesterday, 9/9.

Pretty impressive !!!

Based on this, I expect the 7 day head to head to move from +5 to +6 or +7 within the next few days.  Of course, this assumes a relationship between the approval / horserace figures, which I believe is more than reasonable and has been borne out over the last week or so.


Given some Comments I have received, I am adding daily breakdown estimates, as well as the Head to Head results over the same period.

First my estimates of the daily results (not the 3 day averages) of the the Approval ratings.  I also list the margin from Obama's viewpoint and the day that was dropped from the 3 day average and the margin on the dropped day:

Favorability        Margin    Day dropped

30-Aug    45    46    (1)  
31-Aug    45    46    (1)  
1-Sep    40    52    (12)  
2-Sep    50    46    4     Aug 30   -1
3-Sep    45    46    (1)    Aug 31   -1
4-Sep    47    48    (1)    Sep 1   -12
5-Sep    54    41    13     Sep 2   +4
6-Sep    56    40    16     Sep 3   -1
7-Sep    46    45    1     Sep 4   -1
8-Sep    48    47    1     Sep 5   +13
9-Sep    56    40    16     Sep 6   +16

Sept. 1 was an awful day, and Sept. 5 and 6 were of course great days.  But Sept. 7 and 8 were actually pretty bad; the 3 day average only looked good because of Sept 5 and 6.   But then yesterday, Sept 9, the numbers were great again, and had to be, because both of Obama's best days were no longer in the calculation.  I estimate that Obama did as well in yesterday's approval poll as on Sept. 6, up around 16.

Below are the 7 day moving averages for the head to head, except now the day dropped margin is the margin for the Approval poll, not the Head to Head.  I have not bothered to extrapolate the likely daily numbers of the head to head, but they probably closely mirror the favorability numbers:

Head to Head                    Margin    Day dropped
8/24-30               47    46    1    
08/25-31               47 46    1    
08/26-09/1         47    46    1    
08/27-09/2         47    46    1    
08/28-09/3         47    46    1    
08/29-09/4         47    46    1    
08/30-09/5         47    46    1    
08/31-09/6         48    45    3             Aug 30   -1
09/1-7               49    45    4             Aug 31   -1
09/2-8               49    44    5             Sep 1   -12
09/3-9               49    44    5             Sep 2   +4

So it looks like August 8 was not a very good day for Obama, because an awful day for him, Sept 1, was dropped and he did not improve in the Head to Head.  However, if you look at his Favorability ratings over the prior 7 days, they come out to +4.6, which rounds up to the +5 he shows in the Head to Head from 9/2-8.

Similarly, his Favorability ratings average from 9/3-9 is around +6.4, slightly higher than his Head to Head over that time but not far off.

Obviously, when Sept 5 and 6 are dropped from the 7 day Head to Head he will have trouble maintaining a +5 lead.  Which is why yesterday's results of about a +16 were so fantastic.  They will cushion the falling back to earth or, better yet, they indicate that he is continuing to get high Approval marks following the convention.

Also, expect the head to head lead to go up significantly over the next 2 days.  Obama is up 47 over the last 5 days alone on Approval; even if he were to break even over the next 2 days, which is unlikely, he would still be +6.8 on the Approval ratings over 7 days.  If he were to be +4 on the Approval ratings on each of the next 2 days, not unlikely given his +16 yesterday,  he would be +8 on the Approval ratings in 2 days.  Either way, that should result in a significant bump in the Head to Head, because they do tend to run in tandem.


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