This is only a Preview!

You must Publish this diary to make this visible to the public,
or click 'Edit Diary' to make further changes first.

Posting a Diary Entry

Daily Kos welcomes blog articles from readers, known as diaries. The Intro section to a diary should be about three paragraphs long, and is required. The body section is optional, as is the poll, which can have 1 to 15 choices. Descriptive tags are also required to help others find your diary by subject; please don't use "cute" tags.

When you're ready, scroll down below the tags and click Save & Preview. You can edit your diary after it's published by clicking Edit Diary. Polls cannot be edited once they are published.

If this is your first time creating a Diary since the Ajax upgrade, before you enter any text below, please press Ctrl-F5 and then hold down the Shift Key and press your browser's Reload button to refresh its cache with the new script files.


  1. One diary daily maximum.
  2. Substantive diaries only. If you don't have at least three solid, original paragraphs, you should probably post a comment in an Open Thread.
  3. No repetitive diaries. Take a moment to ensure your topic hasn't been blogged (you can search for Stories and Diaries that already cover this topic), though fresh original analysis is always welcome.
  4. Use the "Body" textbox if your diary entry is longer than three paragraphs.
  5. Any images in your posts must be hosted by an approved image hosting service (one of: imageshack.us, photobucket.com, flickr.com, smugmug.com, allyoucanupload.com, picturetrail.com, mac.com, webshots.com, editgrid.com).
  6. Copying and pasting entire copyrighted works is prohibited. If you do quote something, keep it brief, always provide a link to the original source, and use the <blockquote> tags to clearly identify the quoted material. Violating this rule is grounds for immediate banning.
  7. Be civil. Do not "call out" other users by name in diary titles. Do not use profanity in diary titles. Don't write diaries whose main purpose is to deliberately inflame.
For the complete list of DailyKos diary guidelines, please click here.

Please begin with an informative title:

Gallup switched today to it's likely voter model, and as  the most watched/historical poll in the business it has a lot of sway.


You must enter an Intro for your Diary Entry between 300 and 1150 characters long (that's approximately 50-175 words without any html or formatting markup).


Likely Voters: Romney 49 Obama 47.

Registered Voters: Romney 46 Obama 49.

More coming, with link. The previous diary from another poster had the wrong numbers and has now been deleted apparently.

My analysis:

Letting everyone know where I am coming from, so I can be fairly accused of bias or whatnot, my preferred outcome in this election would be either D 240 House / 55 Senate / Romney presidency or D240 House, 50 Senate, Obama presidency. For me the worst scenario would be either Romney or Obama being president controlling all three branches of government.

Ever since Barack Obama has been a candidate on the national stage his biggest strength has been expanding the voter playing field and dominating those new voters along with crazy excitement among his young supporters and loyalty and pride among his minority supporters.

TEAM BLUE NEEDS TO REBUT THESE POLLS HARD. Young, new, and minority voters are easily discouraged in the face of a political zeitgeist that goes against them; they'll decide to revert to old habits and not vote. That is why it is especially important for the blue team to remind everyone that he is still a huge favorite to win this thing.

On a personal note: Obama and his team really do look tired right now. Smart alec comments aside, it is hard to see if Obama still has the fight in him to be re-elected because he wants to do big things over the next four years, or just so he doesn't lose. He needs to look lively and show us that he still wants it over the next few weeks, or he's done.

Update: Lots of smart analysis in the comments on this one.

Extended (Optional)


Your Email has been sent.