Gallup switched today to it's likely voter model, and as the most watched/historical poll in the business it has a lot of sway.
Likely Voters: Romney 49 Obama 47.
Registered Voters: Romney 46 Obama 49.
More coming, with link. The previous diary from another poster had the wrong numbers and has now been deleted apparently.
Letting everyone know where I am coming from, so I can be fairly accused of bias or whatnot, my preferred outcome in this election would be either D 240 House / 55 Senate / Romney presidency or D240 House, 50 Senate, Obama presidency. For me the worst scenario would be either Romney or Obama being president controlling all three branches of government.
Ever since Barack Obama has been a candidate on the national stage his biggest strength has been expanding the voter playing field and dominating those new voters along with crazy excitement among his young supporters and loyalty and pride among his minority supporters.
TEAM BLUE NEEDS TO REBUT THESE POLLS HARD. Young, new, and minority voters are easily discouraged in the face of a political zeitgeist that goes against them; they'll decide to revert to old habits and not vote. That is why it is especially important for the blue team to remind everyone that he is still a huge favorite to win this thing.
On a personal note: Obama and his team really do look tired right now. Smart alec comments aside, it is hard to see if Obama still has the fight in him to be re-elected because he wants to do big things over the next four years, or just so he doesn't lose. He needs to look lively and show us that he still wants it over the next few weeks, or he's done.
Update: Lots of smart analysis in the comments on this one.