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12:50 PM PT: NM-Sen: It seems like we've had more than enough polling data to nail Heather Wilson's political coffin shut, but I suppose Dem Rep. Martin Heinrich figures some extra Krazy Glue can't hurt. His new internal, from GBA Strategies, has him beating Wilson by a dominant 55-42, or 51-39 if American Party candidate Jon Barrie is included (he takes 8 percent). That's up from 52-44 at the end of last month in a two-way matchup.

1:01 PM PT: OH-Sen: If you have five minutes on your hands (and no coworkers who will get ticked off at you), just have a look at this video of Republican Senate candidate Josh Mandel getting testy and absolutely flailing in an interview with the editorial board of the Youngstown Vindicator. The Vindy recently endorsed Brown, in part because of Mandel's "tortured evasions" when the board tried to ask him about the auto bailout. The whole thing is pretty amazing, but this exchange at about 1:47:

Mandel: Please, sir, don't put words in my mouth.

Editor: Somebody's gotta put words in your mouth because all you do is talk in circles.

1:15 PM PT: Blue Dogs: Toward the end of a Roll Call piece about the dwindling ranks of the Blue Dog Coalition is this appalling tidbit:

The losses hit close to home for former Rep. Billy Tauzin (La.). He co-founded the group and hosted its meetings in his office after the Republican wave election of 1994. The coalition owes its name to a painting of a blue dog he had in his office. Though he is now a Republican — he switched parties in 1995 — he still counsels members of the group.
The Blue Dogs are what they are, but seriously—to be advised by a turncoat scumbag like Tauzin? After he freaking left the Democratic Party? That's just grotesque.

1:23 PM PT: NV-03: Democrat John Oceguera's out with one of those "but look at the trendlines!" internals, courtesy Benenson. His new survey shows him trailing GOP Rep. Joe Heck 45-40 (with American Party candidate Tom Jones crooning at 8). That's a big improvement from Heck's 49-29 lead in April, numbers which Oceguera's camp obviously didn't share at the time. The margin is very similar to the four-point spread the DCCC recently saw, though another survey mentioned the other day by Jon Ralston had Heck up 11. In any event, Obama's really struggling, leading Romney by just 49-47. This seat went 54-45 for the POTUS in 2008, making it look like an attractive pickup target, but the president simply hasn't done well in Nevada this time around. That's probably a big factor helping Heck stay on top.

1:44 PM PT: CT-Sen: Looks like Linda McMahon is back on her heels over abortion, thanks to a key supporter cracking out of turn:

Peter Wolfgang, executive director of the Family Institute of Connecticut, posted an online comment on Monday that said his endorsement of McMahon is "no longer accurate" in light of McMahon saying at a debate on Sunday that she would vote to repeal the federal law defining marriage as between a man and a woman. But Wolfgang said he is still voting for the former wrestling executive "because her victory could mean the end of Roe v. Wade."
Democrat Chris Murphy's campaign pounced immediately, asking why Wolfgang would feel confident in making that kind of statement and wondering what kind of assurances McMahon gave him. That led to a heated and evasive response from McMahon's camp:
Todd Abrajano, McMahon's campaign spokesman, called Murphy's accusations "absolutely ridiculous."

"Linda McMahon has said all along that she is a pro-choice, independent woman," he said. "So why on earth would she vote to overturn Roe vs. Wade?"

I also like the fact that McMahon seems to think she gets a "vote" on Roe v. Wade, which enshrines a constitutional right into law. Does she think the First Amendment might also come up for a vote?

2:18 PM PT: 3Q Fundraising:

OH-Sen: Josh Mandel (R): $4.5 mil raised

IL-10: Brad Schneider (D): $780K raised

IL-11: Bill Foster (D): $640K raised

3:44 PM PT (David Jarman): AAN: I'm not exactly sure how American Action Network (Norm Coleman's dark money outfit) and the Congressional Leadership Fund (John Boehner's PAC) got joined at the hip, but they're teaming up to pour cash into a handful of competitive House races. Their newly announced reservations don't cover a lot of races, but there's a whole lot of money going into most of them: AAN is putting $1 mil into IL-13, $1.8 mil into CA-10 (a crap-ton of money in the reasonably-priced Sacramento market), $600K into NY-27, $1.3 mil for NH-01, and a comparative pittance of $90K in MN-08, for a total of $7.5 mil. CLF is also $1.4 mil into OH-16, $750K into TX-23, and $500K in NC-07.

3:50 PM PT (David Jarman): IL-08, IL-10, IL-11: Media markets don't get much more expensive than Chicago, but that's also ground zero for competitive House races, so the House Majority PAC and the SEIU are pouring $2.4 million into a new three-ad blitz. Two of the ads target Judy Biggert and Bob Dold individually; the third one, though, targets Biggert, Dold, and Joe Walsh all together. (It's titled "Loud;" guess which one of the three they're referring to.) The ad tries to tie Biggert and Dold to their more controversial colleague, but it also seems to be a bit of an insurance policy where Walsh's race is concerned, as GOP groups have put more than a million into propping him up and a Tammy Duckworth victory isn't looking as slam dunk-ish as it once was.

3:54 PM PT (David Jarman): CA-26: The House Majority PAC and SEIU had to spent a pile of money ($700K, to be exact) here in the spring in order to make sure Dem Julia Brownley made it into the top two of a weird three-way primary... and now they're back, trying to help her through the general too. They've spent $200K on direct mail already, but now they're running a TV spot tying GOPer Tony Strickland to the tea party as well.

4:00 PM PT (David Jarman): NY-19: Dem Julian Schriebman (running against GOP frosh Chris Gibson) caught a break, and the NRCC is left backtracking: two local affiliates (including the Fox affiliate) refused to run the NRCC's new ad, which misrepresented a case from Schriebman's previous work as a defense attorney. The NRCC wound up pulling the ad, and running an older, more-general ad about the stimulus package instead.


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