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Everybody's favorite GOP pollster (oh wait, or is that Gravis?) is starting to position himself to fall in line with all other pollsters (except for Gallup, which has a severely broken LV screen) in showing somewhere between a tie and a 2 percent lead for Obama going into election day.

The numbers:  Romney 49%, Obama 47%.    Obama approval 49%, disapproval 51%.  

R+2 represents a 2 percent swing towards Obama in just 2 days.   Not the type of movement in polls, especially polls with a built-in GOP house effect, Romney needs right now.  

Rasmussen also shows good news for my state Florida, with Bill Nelson leading Connie Mack 49% to 46%, good news for us given Rasmussen's GOP lean.   Looks like the Florida Senate seat is going to be safe.

One more note:  Rasmussen is going to release an Ohio poll later today.   Obviously, as a good GOP soldier they will show it tighter than other polling firms have, but expect Obama to lead Ohio, nonetheless.   Rasmussen showed an exact tie last week.  I think today is going to be a small lead for Obama, because Rasmussen said this a few days ago:  

Wisconsin May Be the New Ohio

If Ohio goes for the president, Romney has a few perilous paths to victory available to him. All require him to carry Wisconsin and its 10 Electoral College votes.

The simplest path without Ohio would be for Romney to win Wisconsin, Colorado and one other swing state. It's plausible, but an uphill struggle. The latest Rasmussen Reports polling in Wisconsin shows the president up by 2 points.

Despite the polls, some conservative activists in Wisconsin think it's possible to pull off an upset. They point out that, unlike Ohio, the state was not flooded with anti-Romney ads over the summer (in Wisconsin, they were still fighting about the governor's election recall at the time). That means more voters may be open to supporting the GOP candidate.

Additionally, in Ohio, almost all analysts believe the Democrats have a better ground game to get voters to the polls. That's not the case in Wisconsin. The Republican ground game got a good and very successful dry run during the recall election in June. And, of course, the man on the ticket with Romney is from Wisconsin. If Paul Ryan is able to pull in just a few extra votes, it could make a lot of difference.


The tenor of these comments don't sound optimistic as for Ohio, which points to Rasmussen seeing bad numbers out of Ohio for Romney.  If Scott Rasmussen had seen a major surge for Romney in the state of Ohio, he would not be writing about Wisconsin as the absolute pivotal state for Romney this election cycle.    Thus, sticking my neck out here, I expect Rasmussen to show Obama in the lead in Ohio, perhaps by as much as 2%.   But no more than 2 percent.  Rasmussen has to keep the illusion alive that the race is at least somewhat within reach for Romney.  

Nice to see GOP pollsters squirm to show good news for their guy as the election comes to a close.  Very nice.  


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