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After crunching numbers throughout the night, Washington United for Marriage (WUM), the broad coalition which built an historic statewide campaign, from a record-setting donor base to an unprecedented GOTV effort, all to defend the freedom to marry, today announced that Referendum 74 will be approved by voters.
“This is a clear win,” said WUM campaign manager Zach Silk. “We have run the numbers every which way, and we can now confidently say that we have won. This is an historic day for Washington, an historic day for our country and, most of all, for families across the state who have dreamed of this day and the wedding celebrations to come.”
I'll admit that I've spent way too much time today running the numbers myself and trying to find a way where they don't work. I'm pretty confident but due to Washington's all mail vote system, I won't feel 100% until 4:30 today when many counties (including Seattle's King) drop updated results that have the ballots that arrived today.
I remember R-71 a few years ago and the initial numbers stayed very static throughout the first few days of updates. If the 70,000 vote lead turns into 100 or 150k, then I don't see any way that it can lose. So while I'm not about to call it yet, where the outstanding numbers are do make it hard to see it losing.
Apparently NOM came to the same conclusion as they are talking about losing all four elections this cycle. http://www.nomblog.com/...