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Please begin with an informative title:

When we last checked in last night, Mitt Romney was at 47.53 percent of the popular vote, as tracked by Dave Wasserman via an exhaustive county-by-county canvass.

If Romney drops to 47.49 percent of the vote, his totals will round to 47 percent, which would be deliciously ironic. And heck, I'd certainly be thankful for that! Well, we're almost there because as of this writing Romney is now at:


The new number is based on the following new results:

WA: 12,259 new Obama votes just reported, 5,015 Romney (mostly Seattle/King County): https://t.co/...
@Redistrict via web
CA: Obama 120,222 new votes, Romney 72,759 (mostly Riverside, San Diego, Placer, San Bernardino, San Mateo, Marin): https://t.co/...
@Redistrict via web

This was the big vote dump last night -- about 200,000 new votes from California pushing Romney down 0.02 points, to 47.51.

Utah: @MittRomney picks up 10,008 new votes, @BarackObama 3,260 (mostly Logan/Ogden). Romney still at 47.51%: https://t.co/...
@Redistrict via web

No matter what, Romney will always have Utah. Not that he'd live there. California it is, even though its taxes are supposedly destroying "job creators" like him!

IL: City of Chicago reports 9,218 new votes for @BarackObama, 1,386 for @MittRomney. Romney still at 47.51% https://t.co/...
@Redistrict via web
IL: Suburban Cook County reports 5,286 new votes for @BarackObama, 2,116 for @MittRomney. Romney still at 47.51% https://t.co/...
@Redistrict via web

Lots of new Illinois numbers today.

OH: With 25 of 88 counties certified (mostly small/rural), Obama has picked up 9,615 provisionals to Romney's 8,621: https://t.co/...
@Redistrict via web

If Obama is picking up votes in the provisional count of small Ohio counties (most of which Romney won), he'll get monster results when the big urban counties (e.g. Cleveland's Cuyahoga County) report theirs.

NJ: Bergen County reports 18,911 new @BarackObama votes, 13,657 @MittRomney. Obama hits 2 million in NJ. https://t.co/...
@Redistrict via web

New Jersey is still 10.41 percent off its turnout from 2008. Hurricane Sandy obviously had an impact, though how big we won't know until this count is finished.

IL: Will County reports 14,214 new votes for @BarackObama, 8,984 for @MittRomney. Obama hits 3M votes in IL: https://t.co/...
@Redistrict via web

Will County is the southwestern Chicago suburbs, and includes Joliet.

IL: New results from Whiteside & Jackson Cos. push @MittRomney's U.S. popular vote share down 0.01% to 47.50%: https://t.co/...
@Redistrict via web

Jackson County is the home of Carbondale, where famed party school Southern Illinois University is located. Whiteside County, IL is a small county on the Iowa border in northwestern Illinois. Sterling is its largest city.

If 200,000 new votes in California moved the needle 0.02 points, there is a great deal more room for Romney to fall. There are still about 1 million uncounted votes in California (including in Los Angeles County, which was 69-29 Obama on the Election Night count). There are also another million or so uncounted votes in New York.

The question isn't whether Romney will drop below 47.50. That is guaranteed at this point. But whether he'll drop down below 47 percent.

Update: California actually posts estimates of uncounted ballots here. As of this update, there are 1.022 million ballots remaining to be tallied, including 216,000 in Los Angeles County.


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Originally posted to kos on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 08:50 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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