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Most Ohio county boards of elections have reported final results from the November 6 general election, so it’s a good time to look at the impact provisional and absentee ballots not included in the preliminary results had in Ohio’s urban counties.  The preliminary figures are still available on the Ohio Secretary of State’s web site.

The following tables include the preliminary totals, the additional votes not included in the preliminary totals, and the final totals for eight of Ohio’s ten most populous counties.  Mahoning County (ranked tenth in population) is not included because its Board of Elections has not yet posted final results.  Butler County (ranked eighth) is not included because it is a suburban, rather than urban, county.  The Cincinnati suburbs (Butler, Warren, and Clermont Counties) form the largest bastion of Republican support in the state.  Figures are Obama vote – Obama percent – Romney vote – Romney percent – Total vote.

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            OBAMA        ROMNEY        TOTAL

CUYAHOGA    Prelim    420953    68.84    184475    30.17    611512
Cleveland        Add    26279    80.19    6176    18.85    32769
_        Total    447232    69.42    190651    29.59    644281

FRANKLIN        Prelim    325654    60.11    207941    38.38    541751
Columbus        Add    20682    68.06    8026    26.41    30390
_        Total    346336    60.53    215967    37.75    572141

HAMILTON    Prelim    208508    51.79    188653    46.86    402572
Cincinnati        Add    11419    69.96    4673    28.63    16322
_        Total    219927    52.50    193326    46.15    418894

SUMMIT        Prelim    147146    56.73    108700    41.91    259389
Akron        Add    5891    65.72    2300    25.66    8964
_        Total    153037    57.03    111000    41.36    268353

MONTGOMERY    Prelim    128983    50.73    121188    47.66    254266
Dayton        Add    8156    65.56    3653    29.36    12441
_        Total    137139    51.42    124841    46.81    266707

LUCAS        Prelim    129229    64.34    68100    33.91    200850
Toledo        Add    7387    75.60    1840    18.83    9771
_        Total    136616    64.86    69940    33.21    210621

STARK        Prelim    86314    48.87    86958    49.23    176623
Canton        Add    3118    60.86    1623    31.68    5123
_        Total    89432    49.21    88581    48.74    181746

LORAIN        Prelim    78115    56.39    58095    41.94    138516
Elyria        Add    3349    67.47    1310    26.39    4964
_        Total    81464    56.78    59405    41.40    143480

The inclusion of the additional votes typically increased Obama’s margin by about one percent.  It was enough to turn a close loss to a close win in Canton’s Stark County.  Collectively, these counties provided 86,281 additional votes to Obama and 29,601 additional votes to Romney.  I expect Obama’s statewide margin to increase from about 2% to over 3% when the Secretary of State publishes the updated totals.

Just for fun, I also looked at recent historical trends for these eight counties.  Figures are Democratic vote – Democratic percent – Republican vote – Republican percent – Total vote.

        YEAR    DEMOCRAT    REPUBLICAN    TOTAL

CUYAHOGA    2000    359913    62.62    192099    33.42    574782
Cleveland        2004    448503    66.57    221600    32.89    673777
_        2008    458422    68.90    199880    30.04    665352
_        2012    447232    69.42    190651    29.59    644281

FRANKLIN        2000    202018    48.79    197862    47.78    414074
Columbus        2004    285801    54.35    237253    45.12    525827
_        2008    334709    59.73    218486    38.99    560325
_        2012    346336    60.53    215967    37.75    572141

HAMILTON    2000    161578    42.76    204175    54.03    377899
Cincinnati        2004    199679    47.09    222616    52.50    424025
_        2008    225213    52.98    195530    46.00    425086
_        2012    219927    52.50    193326    46.15    418894

SUMMIT        2000    119759    53.26    96721    43.02    224839
Akron        2004    156587    56.67    118558    42.91    276320
_        2008    160858    57.93    113284    40.80    277685
_        2012    153037    57.03    111000    41.36    268353

MONTGOMERY    2000    114597    49.61    109792    47.53    230987
Dayton        2004    142997    50.60    138371    48.97    282584
_        2008    145997    52.42    128679    46.20    278511
_        2012    137139    51.42    124841    46.81    266707

LUCAS        2000    108344    57.83    73342    39.15    187350
Toledo        2004    132715    60.21    87160    39.54    220430
_        2008    142852    64.98    73706    33.53    219831
_        2012    136616    64.86    69940    33.21    210621

STARK        2000    75308    47.11    78153    48.89    159844
Canton        2004    95337    50.59    92215    48.93    188459
_        2008    96990    51.72    86743    46.25    187545
_        2012    89432    49.21    88581    48.74    181746

LORAIN        2000    59809    53.32    47957    42.75    112180
Elyria        2004    78970    56.11    61203    43.49    140742
_        2008    85276    58.07    59068    40.22    146859
_        2012    81464    56.78    59405    41.40    143480

Note the sharp increase in total vote between 2000 and 2004 in all eight counties.  John Kerry’s campaign didn’t get the credit it deserved in maximizing urban turnout.  Unfortunately, turnout was also way up in red-leaning parts of the state.   For example, Butler County’s total vote increased by 22%, which is in line with the counties on this list.

Also note the encouraging trends in Franklin, Hamilton, and Lucas Counties.  Franklin County is home to Columbus, the only large city in Ohio that is gaining population.  Al Gore carried Franklin County by 1%, John Kerry by 9%, and Barack Obama by 21% and 23%.  Republicans had held Cincinnati’s Hamilton County for many years until Obama carried it by 7% in 2008 and 6% in 2012, following losses by 11% (Gore) and 5% (Kerry).  Blue-collar Lucas County has long been a Democratic stronghold, but Obama’s margins of 31% and 32% far exceed Gore’s 19% and Kerry’s 21%.

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