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Please begin with an informative title:

The Governor races should be much more fun for Democrats in 2014 than the Senate races.  We should be in good shape to pick up three to five state houses (plus the Indy seat in RI) and maybe more.  The Republicans just about maxed out in 2010, leaving Democrats with plenty of pickup opportunities and with mostly easy seats to defend.

REPUBLICAN SEATS

1. MAINE - PAUL LEPAGE

Rating with Incumbent: Lean D Pickup
Rating if Open: Lean D Pickup
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+6
Job Approval: 42-51 (Maine People's Resource 11/3/12); 41-51 (PPP 11/2/12); 44-52 (Pan Atlantic 9/28/12); 47-51 (Rasmussen 9/25/12)
Head-to-Head: 41-49 vs. Generic D (PPP 11/2/12)
My Two Cents: LePage should be toast.  Even if the race descends into three-way madness again this time, one would hope that the parties will do a better job of acting in the interest of defeating LePage at all costs.

2. MICHIGAN - RICK SNYDER

Rating with Incumbent: Lean D Pickup
Rating if Open: Lean D Pickup
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+4
Job Approval: 38-56 (PPP 12/16/12); 46-48 (Rasmussen 10/11/12); 45-53 (EPIC-MRA 7/31/12)
Head-to-Head: 38-49 vs. Bernero; 46-38 vs. Whitmer; 47-39 vs. Peters; 44-39 vs. Schauer
My Two Cents: PPP's latest poll is a disaster for Snyder.  The recent labor controversies have changed the equation.  Congressman Gary Peters is making what sound like candidate noises, and he would be just the right candidate.

3. PENNSYLVANIA - TOM CORBETT

Rating with Incumbent: Lean D Pickup
Rating if Open: Tossup/Tilt D
Likelihood of Open Seat: Moderate to Low
PVI: D+1
Job Approval: 40-38 (Quinnipiac 11/13/12); 33-44 (PPP 11/3/12); 42-48 (Rasmussen 10/24/12); 32-41 (Muhlenberg 10/21/12)
Head-to-Head: 40-49 vs. Generic D (PPP 11/3/12)
My Two Cents: Corbett appears to be in deep trouble, although Quinnipiac suggests some recovery.  Businessman Tom Knox and former state environmental head John Hanger are in for Dems.  Others will join, possibly including Rep. Allyson Schwartz.

4. FLORIDA - RICK SCOTT

Rating with Incumbent: Tossup/Tilt D Pickup
Rating if Open: Tossup/Tilt R
Likelihod of Open Seat: Low
PVI: R+2
Job Approval: 37-48 (PPP 11/4/12); 39-45 (Quinnipiac 10/28/12); 48-48 (Rasmussen 10/25/12)
Head-to-Head: 44-48 vs. Generic D (PPP 11/4/12); 42-45 vs. Crist (PPP 9/2/12); 35-47 vs. Rich (PPP 6/3/12)
My Two Cents: This seems like it should be an easy pickup, but Florida demographics are tough in midterms.  If Charlie Crist runs, he will be defeated in the primary as he should be.  State Senator Nan Rich is already in the race.

5. VIRGINIA - OPEN

Rating: Tossup/Tilt D Pickup
PVI: EVEN
Favorables: McAuliffe 17-13 (Quinnipiac 11/12/12); McAuliffe 16-23 (PPP 8/19/12); Cucinelli 29-24 (Quinnipiac 11/12/12); Cucinelli 29-35 (PPP 8/19/12)
Head-to-Head: McAuliffe 43, Cucinelli 42 (POS 12/4/12); McAuliffe 41, Cucinelli 37 (Quinnipiac 11/12/12); McAuliffe 40, Cucinelli 40 (PPP 8/19/12)
My Two Cents: McAuliffe is an unsatisfying candidate both because he hails from the DLC wing of the party and because he generally seems like a doofus.  Cucinelli, however, should be way too extreme for today's Virginia even in a mid-term.

6.   SOUTH CAROLINA - NIKKI HALEY

Rating with Incumbent: Tossup/Tilt R
Rating if Open: Safe R
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: R+8
Job Approval: 42-49 (PPP 12/9/12); 40-42 (Winthrop 12/2/12)
Head-to-Head: 44-46 vs. Sheheen (PPP 12/9/12)
My Two Cents: This race appears headed for a re-match of the suprisingly-close 2010 open seat contest - Haley vs. State Sen. Vincent Sheheen.  Haley's approvals are low (and should rightfully be lower) but the fundamentals of the state favor her strongly.

7. NEW MEXICO - SUSANA MARTINEZ

Rating with Incumbent: Tossup/Tilt R
Rating if Open: Lean D Pickup
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+4
Job Approval: 65-32 (Rasmussen 10/8/12); 56-34 (PPP 7/16/12)
My Two Cents: Martinez is wildly popular in New Mexico, but will face a heavyweight battle with Attorney General Gary King, son of former Governor Bruce King.  Martinez probably has an edge, but the fundamentals of the state obviously favor King.

8. OHIO - JOHN KASICH

Rating with Incumbent: Tossup/Tilt R
Rating if Open: Pure Tossup
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: R+1
Job Approval: 42-35 (Quinnipiac 12/9/12); 45-40 (PPP 11/4/12); 56-38 (Rasmussen 11/4/12); 56-34 (Ohio Poll 10/23/12); 45-33 (Fox 10/18/12)
Head-to-Head: 44-43 vs. Generic D (PPP 11/4/12); 41-40 vs. Cordray; 44-42 vs. Strickland; 43-36 vs. Coleman; 41-33 vs. Ryan; 45-35 vs. Kucinich (PPP 6/24/12)
My Two Cents: Kasich has rebounded strongly after being in rough shape for quite some time.  But Ohio Dems have some potential big guns to challenge Kasich, including ex-Gov. Ted Strickland and ex-Attorney General Richard Cordray.

9. WISCONSIN - SCOTT WALKER

Rating with Incumbent: Lean R
Rating if Open: Tossup/Tilt D Pickup
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+2
Job Approval: 51-46 (PPP 11/3/12); 51-46 (St. Norbert 10/29/12); 50-45 (Marquette 10/28/12); 51-47 (Rasmussen 10/18/12); 52-44 (Quinnipiac 10/9/12)
Head-to-Head: 50-43 vs. Generic D (PPP 50-43)
My Two Cents: Walker's approvals seem to be immovable in the low 50's.  He will raise money like no other and will be tough to defeat.  In fact, Walker's strong performance in the recall may be enough to scare off any first-tier challengers.

10. ARIZONA - OPEN

Rating: Lean R
PVI: R+7
My Two Cents: Republicans have the edge, but Democrats have some promising candidates including Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton and attorney Felicia Rotellini, who nearly took the Attorney General race even in the bloodbath of 2010.

11. IOWA - TERRY BRANSTAD

Rating with Incumbent: Likely R
Rating if Open: Pure Tossup
Likelihood of Open Seat: Moderate to Low
PVI: D+1
Job Approval: 48-36 (PPP 11/4/12); 60-34 (Rasmussen 10/30/12)
Head-to-Head: 49-40 vs. Generic D (PPP 11/4/12); 43-46 vs. Vilsack; 44-42 vs. Culver; 44-40 vs. Braley (PPP 5/6/12)
My Two Cents: Like Kasich, Branstad seems to have recovered nicely in a state that has done well economically.  Branstad is sending signals that he will run for a record sixth term as Iowa governor, and he should be in good shape to do so.

12. NEVADA - BRIAN SANDOVAL

Rating with Incumbent: Likely R
Rating if Open: Lean D Pickup
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+2
Job Approval: 58-28 (PPP 11/4/12); 56-28 (Rasmussen 10/23/12)
Head-to-Head: 55-32 vs. Generic D (PPP 11/4/12); 51-33 vs. Cortez Masto; 50-28 vs. Miller (PPP 6/10/12)
My Two Cents: Only Nevada's Democratic lean prevents me from declaring this seat Safe R.  Sandoval is wildly popular and seems unlikely to face top-tier competition in 2014, although Dems do have a good bench of statewide officeholders here.  

13. NEW JERSEY - CHRIS CHRISTIE

Rating with Incumbent: Likely R
Rating if Open: Likely D Pickup
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+6
Job Approval: 69-22 (Monmouth 12/4/12); 67-25 (PPP 11/28/12); 72-21 (Quinnipiac 11/25/12); 77-21 (National Research 11/19/12); 67-26 (Rutgers-Eagleton 11/17/12)
Head-to-Head: 50-36 vs. Booker; 53-31 vs. Codey; 61-25 vs. Springsteen; 57-20 vs. Sweeney; 60-20 vs. Buono (PPP 11/28/12); 53-35 vs. Booker; 57-30 vs. Codey; 61-23 vs. Buono; 62-21 vs. Wisniewski; 62-20 vs. Greenwald (Quinnipiac 11/25/12); 53-34 vs. Booker; 56-31 vs. Codey; 58-22 vs. Byrne; 60-22 vs. Buono; 60-21 vs. Greenwald (Rutgers-Eagleton 11/17/12)
My Two Cents: If Jon Corzine has stepped aside in 2009, we would have Gov. Richard Codey running for re-election in 2013.  Instead we have the most unbeatable monster to hit the Tri-State area since the Stay-Puf Marshmallow man.

14. GEORGIA - NATHAN DEAL

Rating with Incumbent: Likely R
Rating if Open: Likely R
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
Job Approval: 37-40 (PPP 12/2/12)
Head-to-Head: 44-40 vs. Barrow; 46-38 vs. Carter; 47-40 vs. Reed
My Two Cents: The "likely" rating, as opposed to safe, is solely on the basis of PPP's recent poll showing Deal mildly unpopular and winning unimpressively against Democrats with little name recognition.  Deal probably cruises anyway.

15. KANSAS - SAM BROWNBACK

Rating with Incumbent: Likely R
Rating if Open: Safe R
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: R+12
Job Approval: 36-48 (Survey USA 7/17/12)
My Two Cents: Brownback will probably cruise to re-election, but Survey USA has repeatedly shown him with awful approval ratings.  Kansas Democrats have a decent bench of recently deposed statewide officers, so this is one to keep an eye on.

16. TEXAS - RICK PERRY

Rating with Incumbent: Safe R
Rating if Open: Safe R
Likelihood of Open Seat: Moderate
PVI: R+10
Job Approval: 41-39 (U. of Tex. 10/21/12); 56-41 (Texas Lyceum 9/26/12)
My Two Cents: Perry seems to have recovered from his presidential debacle, and Texas has not yet reached a point where it is viable for Democrats, particularly in mid-terms.  If Perry hangs it up, Attorney General Greg Abbott will be formidible.

17. NEBRASKA - OPEN

Rating: Safe R
PVI: R+12
My Two Cents: Dems no longer have much of a bench to compete in this deep red state.

18. SOUTH DAKOTA - DENNIS DAUGAARD

Rating with Incumbent: Safe R
Rating if Open: Likely R
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: R+9
Job Approval: 43-33 (PPP 1/30/11)
My Two Cents: Not much information here, but if Daugaard's approvals are even decent, he will cruise in South Dakota.

19. ALASKA - SEAN PARNELL

Rating with Incumbent: Safe R
Rating if Open: Safe R
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: R+12
My Two Cents: No recent polling, but no reason to believe Parnell will be in any danger.

20. TENNESSEE - BILL HASLAM

Rating with Incumbent: Safe R
Rating if Open: Safe R
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: R+12
Job Approval: 53-17 (MTSU 2/25/12); 61-21 (Vanderbilt 2/22/12)
My Two Cents: Haslam has bipartisan appeal in Tennessee and is safe as can be.

21. ALABAMA - ROBERT BENTLEY

Rating with Incumbent: Safe R
Rating if Open: Safe R
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: R+14
My Two Cents: BREAKING NEWS: Alabama elects another right winger in a landslide.

22. IDAHO - BUTCH OTTER

Rating with Incumbent: Safe R
Rating if Open: Safe R
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: R+17
My Two Cents: Idaho is quite reliably Republican.

23. OKLAHOMA - MARY FALLIN

Rating with Incumbent: Safe R
Rating if Open: Safe R
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: R+19
Job Approval: 69-16 (Sooner Poll 12/6/11)
My Two Cents: Fallin is very popular and should win easily.

24. WYOMING - MATT MEAD

Rating with Incumbent: Safe R
Rating if Open: Safe R
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: R+22
Job Approval: 77-11 (POS 1/7/12); 53-17 (PPP 1/5/11)
My Two Cents: Wyoming as red as it gets.

DEMOCRATIC SEATS

1. ARKANSAS - OPEN

Rating: Lean R
PVI: R+14
Job Approval: McDaniel 57-13 (Anzalone 12/3/12)
Head-to-Head: Hutchinson 44, McDaniel 41; McDaniel 46, Darr 34 (Anzalone 12/3/12)
My Two Cents: Everything is trending red in Arkansas, but there is still a small fraternity of Democrats who can still win statewide there.  The good news is that Attorney General Dustin McDaniel, who is in the race, may be one of those Democrats.

2. ILLINOIS - PAT QUINN

Rating with Incumbent: Tossup/Tilt R Pickup
Rating if Open: Likely D
Likelihood of Open Seat: High
PVI: D+8
Job Approval: 25-64 (PPP 11/28/12); 26-52 (Chicago Tribune 10/8/12)
Head-to-Head: 37-44 vs. Dillard; 39-43 vs. Rutherford; 40-39 vs. Schock (PPP 11/28/12)
My Two Cents: Quinn was very lucky to escape 2010, and Illinois Democrats should not leave it to luck this time.  Primary time.  Moderate State Senator Kirk Dillard is in the race for the Republicans, but he may need a clown car to win the primary.

3. MASSACHUSETTS - OPEN

Rating: Lean D
PVI: D+10
My Two Cents: This is only Lean D because of the possibility of the still fairly popular Scott Brown running.  I expect Dems to carry the seat regardless of whether he runs, however.  Should be a very crowded Democratic primary, which Bob Massie will win.

4. NEW HAMPSHIRE - MAGGIE HASSAN

Rating with Incumbent: Lean D
Rating if Open: Tossup/Tilt D
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+1
My Two Cents: No polling since election day, but Hassan's 13-point bonanza over Ovide Lamontagne speaks volumes.  She should be in excellent shape for re-election, although New Hampshire voters are fickle.

5. MINNESOTA - MARK DAYTON

Rating with Incumbent: Likely D
Rating if Open: Lean D
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+2
Job Approval: 51-36 (PPP 11/3/12); 54-38 (Rasmussen 10/21/12)
Head-to-Head: 51-38 vs. Generic R
My Two Cents: Republicans probably have a slightly better shot at Senator Al Franken in 2014, so he may draw the stronger candidates away from Dayton, who is popular and should win with room to spare.

6. OREGON - JOHN KITZHABER

Rating with Incumbent: Likely D
Rating if Open: Lean D
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+5
Job Approval: 50-41 (PPP 12/5/12); 55-29 (Riley 8/30/12)
Head-to-Head: 47-42 vs. Smith; 49-40 vs. Walden; 52-37 vs. Alley; 52-33 vs. Hanna; 53-31 vs. Starr
My Two Cents: Oregon is moving in our direction and Kitzhaber is in very solid shape.  I do not necessarily expect him or Merkley to draw a first-tier challenger, but I would expect the stronger challengers would view Merkley as the easier target.

7. COLORADO - JOHN HICKENLOOPER

Rating with Incumbent: Likely D
Rating if Open: Tossup/Tilt D
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+1
Job Approval: 55-26 (PPP 11/4/12); 65-30 (Rasmussen 10/29/12); 59-21 (Quinnipiac 10/9/12)
Head-to-Head: 54-33 vs. Generic R (PPP 11/4/12)
My Two Cents: Colorado loves it some weed ... and some John Hickenlooper.  His approvals are sky high.  This is another situation where I would expect the strongest challengers to go after Udall for the Senate seat.

8. CONNECTICUT - DANNEL MALLOY

Rating with Incumbent: Likely D
Rating if Open: Likely D
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+7
Job Approval: 46-38 (PPP 11/2/12); 50-47 (Rasmussen 10/28/12); 45-41 (Quinnipiac 10/22/12)
Head-to-Head: 48-37 vs. Generic R (PPP 11/2/12)
My Two Cents: This may be headed for a re-match with 2010 Republican nominee Tom Foley.  But if Foley's best wasn't good enough in 2010, it is unlikely to be good enough in 2014.  Connecticut is fool's gold for Republicans.

9. HAWAII - NEIL ABERCROMBIE

Rating with Incumbent: Likely D
Rating if Open: Safe D
Likelihood of Open Seat: Moderate
PVI: D+20
Job Approval: 41-48 (Hawaii Poll 10/12)
My Two Cents: Abercrombie's approvals appear to have recovered from disastrous levels.  I doubt his running for re-election would put the seat in play now, but we may be better off with with a more popular candidate.

10. CALIFORNIA - JERRY BROWN

Rating with Incumbent: Safe D
Rating if Open: Safe D
Likelihood of Open Seat: Moderate
PVI: D+9
Job Approval: 49-36 (USC/LA Times 11/12/12); 42-37 (PPP 10/21/12); 42-44 (Reason 10/15/12)
My Two Cents: Kudos to Brown for having even mildly positive approvals while governing the ungovernable state of California.  Hopefully his recent diagnosis of early stage prostate cancer will not prevent him from running for re-election.

11. MARYLAND - OPEN

Rating: Safe D
PVI: D+10
My Two Cents: There is no white knight candidate to save the Republicans from the inevitable here.  Maryland is very blue and getting even bluer.

12. NEW YORK - ANDREW CUOMO

Rating with Incumbent: Safe D
Rating if Open: Safe D
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+11
Job Approval: 74-13 (Quinnipiac 12/10/12); 58-40 (Siena 10/24/12); 59-37 (Marist 10/21/12)
My Two Cents: Nothing doing for Republicans here.  Cuomo is safe as can be, although Quinnipiac's sky-high approval polls for him seem to be outliers.  

13. VERMONT - PETER SHUMLIN

Rating with Incumbent: Safe D
Rating if Open: Safe D
Likelihood of Open Seat: Low
PVI: D+16
Job Approval: 65-23 (Castleton 5/16/12); 45-36 (PPP 7/31/11)
Head-to-Head: 48-40 vs. Dubie; 50-33 vs. Scott; 50-31 vs. Salmon; 50-29 vs. Snelling; 51-29 vs. Brock; 52-25 vs. Lauzon (PPP 7/31/11)
My Two Cents: I suspect the days of Republicans being competitive in Vermont state level races may be waning.  Shumlin was obliterating the competition in mid-2011, and it appears his approvals have gone way up since then.

INDEPENDENT SEATS

1. RHODE ISLAND - LINCOLN CHAFEE

Rating with Incumbent: Lean D Pickup
Rating if Open: Likely D Pickup
Likelihood of Open Seat: High
PVI: D+11
Job Approval: 29-69 (Brown U. 10/5/12); 21-75 (Fleming 2/23/12)
My Two Cents: Chafee is incredibly unpopular, and is talking about running as a Democrat.  As an indy, he will likely serve as a spoiler for the Democrats.  Democratic Former Auditor Ernie Almonte is in the race.

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