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Please begin with an informative title:

As I begin my second in a monthly(eventually bi-weekly) series on predictions in the 2014 midterms and looking at the gubernatorial picture, in the month since I did my first predictions diary, things have looked better for the Democrats and if your name is Tom Corbett or Rick Scott, then you are in deep trouble.   It remains to be seen if Corbett or Scott will have a toxic effect on Republicans downballot(that could help regain a few House seats).

Sabato and Rothenberg have added their ratings since my last update.   Cook still hasn't updated his December ratings.   The current Governor and their party will be in parathesis after the name of their state.


Nothing has changed here since last month.   It's Alabama and any action would likely be on the Republican side.   Alabama is a consensus Safe R.

Prediction: Safe Republican


Not much change here either.   Parnell is almost a certain lock for re-election if he runs.   The consensus is that it is a Safe R state.

Prediction: Likely Republican(will change to Safe R once Parnell makes it official)


The biggest news in the month since I last looked at this race was that Richard Carmona won't run for Governor.   It's too bad, but I suppose he would do better in 2016 if he ran again if McCain retired.   The only declared Republican is a former mayor of Tempe(Hugh Hallman).   There are some potential Democrats who have yet to declare or decline including a State Rep(Chad Campbell), a few former mayors(Neil Guiliano and Marco Lopez) and a current Mayor(Greg Stanton).   There is also a former Arizona Board of Regents Chairman named Fred Duval.   The GOP primary could be a clown car.  Sabato and Rothenberg call it Lean R while Cook said Likely R.

Prediction: Lean Republican.


Since I last updated, Arkansas went off the rails with a clearly unconstitutional abortion ban that Beebe had vetoed, and the legislature overrid it. Bill Halter is the only Democratic declared candidate so far, but there are still rumors that Blue Dog and overall dumbass peckerhead Mike Ross(who retired after Arkansas Democrats had went through the work to make sure that Ross could keep a gerrymandered district) will run.   I strongly prefer Halter and I will admit my personal bias there.   There are two declared Republicans:  Curtis Coleman and Asa Hutchinson.   Hutchinson is the establishment favorite.  Some fly-by-night polling place called Talk Business/Hendrix College did a general election around when I posted my last diary.   It had Hutchinson beating Halter 47-31 and beating Ross 43-38.   Yes, that poll does help a Ross run(if it were to be believed).   Sabato thinks Lean R and Cook and Rothenberg think Tossup.

Prediction:  Tossup/Tilt R.   Possible GOP pickup(we'll see if the GOP wants Hutchinson or a Tea Partier)


Only two big questions:   Will Brown retire?   And will Donnelly be the GOP nominee?  However, it doesn't really change that this state won't be electing a Republican Governor.   Donnelly could have a bad downballot effect on Republicans especially those in districts with a substantial amount of Hispanic voters.   Consensus is that this is Safe D.

Prediction: Safe Democratic


Not much change here.   I guess I didn't notice that some Libertarian is running in 2014 but that would be a spoiler if the Republicans had a good moderate to survive their clown car primaries.    The Colorado GOP has mucho problems and besides two very red county sheriffs making noise about state gun laws, no blowback on gun safety.   Hickenlooper is in good shape, and should not be primaried despite what one suspictious "Democrat" on this site thinks.   Consensus is Safe D.

Prediction: Safe Democratic(change from Likely Democratic. Could change back)


Not a lot of change here either.   Vaguely remember some Quinnipiac polls that had differing approval numbers for Malloy.   Looks like Tom Foley is declared on the Republican side.   Budget unhappiness aside, I think the GOP has to deal with their gun temper tantrums and their Sandy dickish and neither plays well in the Nutmeg State.   Sabato has it Lean D while Cook and Rothenberg have it Likely D.

Prediction: Likely Democratic.


Scott has had a bad month since I last looked at this race.   His approval numbers are going further in the toilet and he had his Lt. Gov. resign in disgrace.   The only good news for Scott is that he still beats Nan Rich(the only declared Democrat) in PPP's poll of Florida(warning: contains pdf) this week by 42-36(that is still a bad number when he only get to 42).   The very bad news is that Charlie Crist beats him solidly in two polls(PPP's and Quinnipiac's).   PPP has Crist leading 52-40(say good night, Rick!) and Quinnipiac 50-34(ouch!   And any one who can do math can tell you that 50% wins when there is a declared Libertarian candidate).   Scott lost some Tea Party support over his now support of Medicaid expansion.   Looks like Governor Voldemort has had most of his Horcruxes destroyed.   Cook had it as a Lean R while Sabato and Rothenberg say Tossup.

Prediction: Lean Democratic(change from Tossup/Tilt D).   Democratic pickup.


No real change here.   Deal's approval numbers aren't that good but I find it hard for any Democrat to seriously challenge Deal.   Consensus is Safe R.

Prediction: Likely Republican.


Hawaii is notoriously hard to poll and Colleen Hanabusa had a private poll done and it shows that he would beat Abercrombie by a solid margin.   It seems like Hanabusa is more likely to focus on the Governor's mansion that the Senate.   The Hawaii GOP is very thin and almost a non-factor.   Sabato has it Lean D while Cook and Rothenberg Safe D.

Prediction: Safe Democratic.


Not much change here.   Looks like any action would be on the Republican side as Democratic chances look slim.   Consensus is Safe R,

Prediction: Safe Republican


Quinn is still toast.   Dick Durbin refused to endorse Quinn for re-election and Lisa Madigan seems poised to take him down in a primary(Durbin had nice words for Madigan, another sign that he knows which way the wind is blowing).   Madigan smashes most Republicans and beats them all,  Quinn has lots of trouble beating them.  Sabato and Rothenberg has this as Likely D while Cook a Lean D.

Prediction:  Likely Democratic(since Madigan will defeat Quinn).   Change from Lean D.


Not a lot of change here.   Branstad still in good position against most Democrats.   We'll see if Steve King hurts him as the Senate candidate for the Republicans like Mourdock was a slight drag on Pence.   Cook and Sabato have this as Likely R while Rothenberg as Lean R.

Prediction: Likely Republican


Turns out that Brownback isn't as popular as I thought according to PPP's Kansas poll.  He only leads some Democrats by single digits.   Consensus is still Safe R.   Perhaps it shouldn't be.

Prediction: Likely Republican(based on PPP's poll).   Change from Safe R.


Looks like Democrats are going to take it scumbag third-party spoiler Cutler.   Democrats have two declared candidates(A state Rep named David Slagger and a Yarmouth Town Council member named Steve Woods).   Tons of other potential Democrats.   I want Dems to nuke Cutler for jumping into a race where if it were a Democrat and LePage, LePage would lose.   Looks like they could.   Cook has this as Lean R while Sabato and Rothenberg have this as a Tossup.

Prediction: Lean Republican(Cutler still a problem to flipping this seat).   Change from Likely R.


Not a lot of change here.   Maryland is a blue state, and the Republicans don't have that many strong candidates.   Cook and Rothenberg say Safe D, while Sabato says Lean D.

Prediction: Safe Democratic


OK, here's the deal.   Scott Brown isn't running.   He hasn't said so but his actions(Fox News, lobbyist job) say that he won't ever run for office again.   Thus, Republicans have a weaker hand but they still have a few potential challegers.   So far the only declared Democrat is a Some Dude, but many good potential Democrats.   Cook said Safe D, Rothenberg Likely D and Sabato has this as a Tossup.

Prediction: Likely Democratic(default until the field on both sides is better defined.   Brown being out makes it easier for Democrats).   Change from Lean D.


Snyder's odds of re-election got slightly better since last month.   PPP (warning: contains PDF)had his approval have a slight uptick from the pits it was in December and two of his strongest challengers won't take him on(Peters is running for Senate to replace Levin and Bernero declined to run).   The remaining polled opponent, Mark Schauer still beats him in a head-to head but less than in December.  The March PPP poll has Schauer winning 40-36 with 24% undecided.   Since the field is better defined, I know have a better picture of this race.   Cook had this as Likely R, Sabato as Lean R and Rothenberg as a Tossup

Prediction: Tossup/Tilt D (change from Lean R).   Possible Democratic pickup


Not much change here.   Dayton still crushes all GOP and the Minnesota GOP sucks right now.   Sabato has this a Likely D while Cook and Rothenberg says Safe D.

Prediction: Safe Democratic


Not much change here either.   Could be crowded primary on both sides, but this is a red state.   Sabato has it as Likely R while Cook and Rothenberg say Safe R.

Prediction: Likely Republican


Not much change here either.   Sandoval in very good position as he crushes Democrats in polling.   2018 looks much better for Democrats if Democrats win the Lt. Gov. race.  Sabato has it as Likely R while Cook and Rothenberg say Lean R

Prediction: Likely Republican

New Hampshire(Hassan-D)

Not much change here.   Social issues are likely to haunt Republicans.   New Hampshire tends to swing more Republican in midterms, but the GOP could be killing themselves off in New England.   Consensus is Likely D

Prediction: Likely Democratic (change from Lean D)

New Mexico(Martinez-R)

Not much change here either.   I could only find that in July 2012, PPP found that Martinez would defeat Gary King 51-39.   PPP needs to do an updated poll, stat.   King is a declared Democratic candidate.   Cook had this a Lean R while Sabato and Rothenberg have it as Likely R.

Prediction: Likely Republican (change from Lean R)

New York(Cuomo-D)

Again, not a lot of change here.   Cuomo's numbers are still good(there was fantastic post- Sandy pre-gun bill).  Somebody took issue with the "Safe D" label of Cuomo.   Well, Cuomo is a Democrat although a corporatist one like Cory Booker is.   I still wouldn't bet against Cuomo.   Consensus is Safe D.

Prediction: Safe Democratic (change from Likely Democratic)


Hey Republicans, are you still sure you don't want Richard Cordray at the CFPB?   After I posted my diary last month, there was a Quinnipiac poll done.   Kasich has leads on all Democrats but Cordray is Kasich's strongest opponent only trailing him 44-38(and an incumbent only managing 44 is bad news for him).   If I were the national GOP, I'd just vote Cordray into the CFPB so he can't become the next governor of Ohio and become this cycle's Elizabeth Warren.  Tim Ryan is now out so there are only three potential Dems to challenge Kasich(Cordray,  Ed FitzGerald and Betty Sutton).   Kasich better hope that his opponent is FitzGerald.  Cook and Sabato have it Lean R while Rothenberg has it as a Tossup.

Prediction: Tossup/Tilt R (Cordray could be this cycle's Elizabeth Warren).   Change from Lean R.   Possible Democratic pickup.


Oklahoma's a snoozer.    Consensus Safe R.

Prediction: Safe Republican


Oregon also a snoozer.  Oregon GOP is weak.   Consensus Safe D.

Prediction: Safe Democratic


Since my diary last month, Corbett's chances of reelection are sinking.   Allyson Schwartz, a strong Democratic candidate seems very ready to declare.   Harper thinks that Joe Sestak would win a close primary against Schwartz.  One of the declared candidates, Hanger ties Corbett in the latest Quinnipiac poll while Hanger beats Corbett in PPP's March poll(contains PDF).   Quinnpiac and PPP both have Schwartz defeating Corbett.   42-39 and 45-34 respectively.   Sestak would also beat Corbett in both polls.  47-38 and 45-34 respectively.   Consensus is a Tossup.

Prediction: Lean Democratic(change from Tossup/Tilt D).   Democratic pickup

Rhode Island(Chafee-I)

Not much change here.   Chafee's chances of re-election don't look good.   So far there are three Declared Republicans and one declared Democrat(but there are some other potential Democrats including Chafee who is a D all but in name).   Consensus is Tossup

Prediction:  Tossup/Tilt D (could be a technical Democratic pickup).

South Carolina(Haley-R)

Haley is vulnerable to a primary or a general election against Vincent Shaheen.   Not much change here though.  Cook had it as Safe R while Sabato and Rothenberg have it as Lean R.

Prediction: Lean Republican (change from Likely R)

South Dakota(Daugaard-R)

Daugaard seems poised for re-election.   I wonder if choice will have any effect in South Dakota in 2014.   Consensus is Safe R.

Prediction:  Safe Republican


Seems like Tennessee will remain in GOP hands.   Consensus Safe R

Prediction:  Safe Republican


Seems like Perry might have a tough go at it in the primary especially against Greg Abbott.   Democrats could have a tough time in the general since it looks like Bill White is not interested.   We'll see if Battleground Texas will reap any dividends for 2014.   Cook had this as Likely R while Sabato and Rothenberg say Safe R

Prediction: Likely Republican


Looks like Vermont will keep a Democrat in the Governor's mansion.    Consensus is Safe D

Prediction: Safe Democratic


PPP's February poll (warning:  contains PDF)which wasn't done when I did my last diary showed that Walker's approval is underwater(net negative) and that Russ Feingold would defeat him 49-47.    Ron Kind is his next strongest opponent only trailing by 4:  46-42.   Peter Barca's numbers are also pretty good, only trails by 5:  48-43.    Walker is vulnerable.   Consenus is Likely R

Prediction:  Lean Republican(could change to Tossup/Tilt D with Feingold or Kind).


Any action would likely be on the Republican side.   It's also Wyoming, a deep red state.   Consensus Safe R.

Prediction:   Safe Republican.

Conclusions:  Four incumbents looks like they're going down.   Pat Quinn, Lincoln Chafee, Rick Scott and Tom Corbett.   Of this, it's all bad news for Republicans.   Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin all have vulnerable Republicans and I will watch to see if Democrats have a better shot at flipping those.   Arkansas could be the Republicans only gain.   With them losing in Florida and Pennsylvania, 2014 is not looking good for the GOP in this aspect.   We could possibly see six Democratic pickups in this cycle as far as governors go.   Stay tuned, this could be much more exciting that the Senate or House races.

Project net change: +2 Dem
Democratic Pickups:   PA, FL


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