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Please begin with an informative title:

So last week, The Atlantic predicted that Senator Susan Collins (R. ME) would be the next Senator to come out for marriage equality:


It seems clear that how Obama fared in a state is a good indicator of when a senator is likely to announce support for same-sex marriage. Which isn't a surprise, of course. Politicians are very reactive to political support. And the more political support demonstrated for a candidate that supports same-sex marriage, the more likely another candidate would be to take the same position.

If this model is correct, the next five most-likely announcements would come from:

1. Susan Collins, Maine
2. Ron Johnson, Wisconsin
3. Dean Heller, Nevada
4. Chuck Grassley, Iowa
5. Kelly Ayotte, New Hampshire

These are all Republican senators. Which isn't a big surprise; it makes sense that states that voted for Obama but have Republican senators would most likely be what's left. The four Democrats who still haven't endorsed — Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Tim Johnson of South Dakota, Mark Pryor of Arkansas, and Joe Manchin of West Virginia — would be the 23rd, 25th, 38th, and 39th most likely to do so under this model.

Please note: If Heller or Grassley declares his support for gay marriage, send warm coats to Hell. - The Atlantic, 4/5/13

Ok, I can understand why they would make their predictions based on which states Obama won and with Collins background on LGBT issues, you would think that she would come out for marriage equality:


Consider the curious case of Susan Collins, the moderate from Maine. Voters in her state in 2012 overturned a ban on same-sex marriage by 53% to 47%, and gays and lesbians now can marry there. And Collins has a long record of supporting LGBT causes in the Senate, starting with voting against amending the Constitution to ban same-sex marriage. Still, she vaguely told the Associated Press as recently as Wednesday when asked if she supports marriage equality that, "My philosophy has been to stay out of state issues."

Collins is also one of eight Republican senators to vote for repeal of "don't ask, don't tell." Among those eight were Kirk and former Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe, who announced on Friday that she too supports marriage equality. "Though there remain strongly held views on both sides of the issue, we’ve seen a significant change in society’s attitude on this matter, and so it is only natural for our representative government to be responsive to those changes," Snowe told the Associated Press. "That is why I supported the referendum in Maine last November permitting marriage between same-sex couples."

Snowe's successor in the Senate is independent Angus King, who also supports marriage equality. Maine's two representatives in the House are both Democrats, Chellie Pingree and Michael Michaud, and they too support marriage equality.

Collins is up for reelection next year. And the most recent statement from her spokesman, given on Wednesday to Metro Weekly after the AP's story left lingering questions about whether Collins opposes marriage equality, only adds to the confusion about why Collins has not said she supports marriage equality. - The Advocate, 4/6/13

I hate to break it to anyone who was hoping that Collins would come out for marriage equality but it looks like that's not going to happen:


There's been a lot of speculation that Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) may be the next senator to announce her support for gay marriage. As of Tuesday, her position had not changed.

"My view is the same that it's always been," Collins told The Huffington Post. "I think this is a matter of state law."

Collins, a moderate Republican up for reelection in 2014, said states have traditionally handled family law and should continue to do so. She noted that she voted twice, in 2004 and in 2006, against federal constitutional amendments to ban gay marriage because, "I believe it should be left up to the states."

She declined to elaborate on her own personal views about gay marriage, instead reiterating that the matter should be left up to states to decide. - Huffington Post, 4/9/13

It really makes no sense that Collins wouldn't get on board with the rest of the Maine delegation in supporting repealing DOMA and supporting marriage equality in general.  Is she really that scared of a Tea Party challenger that she can't come out for marriage equality?  Even though the Tea Party in Maine has been a huge failure:


“Candidly most of the chatter amongst Democrats in Maine hasn't been focused on Susan Collins. It's been focused on the gubernatorial race, because Democrats see Paul LePage as priority No. 1. Paul LePage is sort of the antithesis to the Republican politics that play well here in Maine,” Cuzzi said.

That dynamic also limits the pool of any potential conservative Republican challengers. Tea-party activists point to a very disorganized group of conservative activists in Maine.

“You need someone with the resources. We just don't have anybody like that; there's nobody for that element to rally around. That person's a myth,” Demeritt said. - National Journal, 3/14/13

If you're a Maine resident, please urge Senator Collins to get on board and support marriage equality:



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Originally posted to pdc on Tue Apr 09, 2013 at 08:30 PM PDT.

Also republished by The Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party, Kossacks for Marriage Equality, Angry Gays, and LGBT Kos Community.

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