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America's blacks voted at a higher rate than other minority groups in 2012 and by most measures surpassed the white turnout for the first time, reflecting a deeply polarized presidential election in which blacks strongly supported Barack Obama while many whites stayed home.
Had people voted last November at the same rates they did in 2004, when black turnout was below its current historic levels, Republican Mitt Romney would have won narrowly, according to an analysis conducted for The Associated Press.
Republicans can pine for a 2004 voter model, but that's as salient as ...
2004 turnout model would've elected Romney. Equally important: 1804 turnout would've elected him, too. — @RealClearScott via web
Indeed, that 2004 voter model will be 12 years old by 2016, a political eternity. And Republicans have more than African Americans to worry about with Latinos and Asians growing like crazy. I might sound like a broken record on this, but it's my favorite stat: The median age of a natural-born Latino is 18.
But there's a broader lesson here than "look how fast brown people are growing as a share of the vote". It's that Democrats win when our base turns out, and they lose, like in 2010, when it doesn't.
Our electorate has changed dramatically, and continues to change dramatically. All those changes benefit Democrats as long as they act like Democrats.
Unfortunately, that's easier said than done, with a party intent on listening to the assholes inside the Beltway establishment (be it media scolds, lobbyists or big money lobbies), as opposed to its rank and file across the rest of the nation.
Originally posted to kos on Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 11:27 AM PDT.