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Today's job report (BLS) should stick a fork in all the doomer hyperbole that seems to have a death grip over logic here recently.  The report (and especially the revisions) show an economy that is fairly strong (compared to the last 13 years) and definitely not near a decline.  The overall number was only +165k, but watch that get revised up substantially, as almost every single number has over the past 3 years.  The March revision (just the first one) went from that weak 88k up to 138k and February's final revision went up to 332k from 268k.  


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Of course, let's not forget that the labor force increased by 200k, and more importantly the "not in the labor force, but want a job" category declined by a whopping 300k last month.  

In unadjusted terms, the gain was actually +932k and the unadjusted unemployment rate went down to 7.1%.

Look for Q1 GDP to be revised higher as a result of this report and also look for the Q2 GDP estimates to pick up considerably now.  

I wouldn't be surprised to see another downward revision to our estimated deficits for the year as a result of increasing economic growth as well.


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