This is only a Preview!

You must Publish this diary to make this visible to the public,
or click 'Edit Diary' to make further changes first.

Posting a Diary Entry

Daily Kos welcomes blog articles from readers, known as diaries. The Intro section to a diary should be about three paragraphs long, and is required. The body section is optional, as is the poll, which can have 1 to 15 choices. Descriptive tags are also required to help others find your diary by subject; please don't use "cute" tags.

When you're ready, scroll down below the tags and click Save & Preview. You can edit your diary after it's published by clicking Edit Diary. Polls cannot be edited once they are published.

If this is your first time creating a Diary since the Ajax upgrade, before you enter any text below, please press Ctrl-F5 and then hold down the Shift Key and press your browser's Reload button to refresh its cache with the new script files.


  1. One diary daily maximum.
  2. Substantive diaries only. If you don't have at least three solid, original paragraphs, you should probably post a comment in an Open Thread.
  3. No repetitive diaries. Take a moment to ensure your topic hasn't been blogged (you can search for Stories and Diaries that already cover this topic), though fresh original analysis is always welcome.
  4. Use the "Body" textbox if your diary entry is longer than three paragraphs.
  5. Any images in your posts must be hosted by an approved image hosting service (one of: imageshack.us, photobucket.com, flickr.com, smugmug.com, allyoucanupload.com, picturetrail.com, mac.com, webshots.com, editgrid.com).
  6. Copying and pasting entire copyrighted works is prohibited. If you do quote something, keep it brief, always provide a link to the original source, and use the <blockquote> tags to clearly identify the quoted material. Violating this rule is grounds for immediate banning.
  7. Be civil. Do not "call out" other users by name in diary titles. Do not use profanity in diary titles. Don't write diaries whose main purpose is to deliberately inflame.
For the complete list of DailyKos diary guidelines, please click here.

Please begin with an informative title:

Updated with more readable chart. Thanks for all the comments.

Second update.  As shmuelman pointed out, the Republicans are also doomed by the age demographics/trends (not just the gender/ethnic/racial demographic trends), so I plotted these from the same data and this chart appears at the bottom of the diary.

Ok, so we had several diaries chronicling Jeb Bush's desperate realizationassertion that Hispanicsimmigrants are more fertile than whitenative born Americans.  In addition to that great front page diary by Hunter, we had a few others (it was first covered by AlyoshaKaramazov in "Jeb Bush Touts 'Higher Fertility' of Immigrants" and later covered by jamess in "Republicans say the darnest things ...").

This of course comes on the heels of the hate fest about an American boy singing the National Anthem at a basketball game - h/t JoanMar. No siree, Republicans cannot help themselves.

I think that the best description of what Jeb Bush was saying was said by david78209: "Help! They're outbreeding us!"

While I agree with that characterization, I think there is more going on.  Follow me below the fold ...


You must enter an Intro for your Diary Entry between 300 and 1150 characters long (that's approximately 50-175 words without any html or formatting markup).

I think they finally looked at demographic trends (maybe Bush has a special dispensation to look at stuff like math and science) and what they see does not look good: Hispanic Americans will make up 12-13% of the electorate and will vote against Republicans by at least 70-30 (worse if the Republicans say what they really think during the immigration reform debates), same with Asian Americans but they will only be about 4% of the electorate, and African-Americans will also make up about 13% of the electorate and will vote against Republicans by about 95-5.  Add to that women (and the continued War on Women - TM that shows no sign of abating) and women will vote against Republicans by at least 55-45 while making up at least 52% of the electorate.  It doesn't take a math genius to see that this means that the most the Republicans can get in the election is 47% of the electorate (ring any bell Mitt Romney?).

I was curious about demographic trends, so I plotted them to see what they look like.  (I used exit poll data from the NY Times for 2008 and before, and I added NY Times exit poll data for 2012.)

The results are as we expected, but the trend lines (I used Excel's linear regression trends) tell the story much better than any numbers or any sense that we have. Most shocking to me was that percentage of white vote to Democrats is actually on the rise so that not only are Republicans vying for a smaller white electoral pie, they are even losing ground among that key demographic which is the only thing delaying their extinction.

So Jeb Bush is saying "Help! They're outbreeding us!" are david78209 said, but he's also saying: "Help! The Republican Party is screwed!" Bush is also saying: "Please have babies! Lots of white babies!"

The Southern strategy and the demonizing of different groups worked very well in getting Republicans elected for decades, but the reality of our Country's demographics make it such that the Republicans are doomed to extinction as a national party and condemned to only be a regional fringe party. This is too bad for our Country as all that is left for Republicans is to try to drag the Country down with their party; no wonder all they do is obstruct!


It appears that Republicans don't have a great chance with the younger population and as we all age, their electability looks even worse.  The chart below shows the age demographic trends, as in percentage of electorate voted for Democrats in Presidential elections, and it certainly appears that Republicans are doomed as Democrats are poised to surpass Republicans in every voting group, including their key over 60 group not very far from now. While the trendline for this group does not look quite right to me for this group (for the statistic buffs, it must have a low R squared value) it still shows very clearly that in every other group the trends is away from the Republicans.

A great question that has been mentioned is: what happens when the GOP is vanquished? Will we we the better Democrats that we are hoping for or will the Democrats just become the Party fully owned by corporate interests and take the place of the Republicans?  We MUST keep working to strengthen the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party.
Extended (Optional)

Originally posted to DefendOurConstitution on Fri Jun 14, 2013 at 04:05 PM PDT.

Also republished by LatinoKos and Community Spotlight.


Jeb Bush is prepping for the 2014 primaries that:

11%26 votes
16%37 votes
6%15 votes
2%6 votes
12%29 votes
50%114 votes

| 227 votes | Vote | Results

Your Email has been sent.