The changing demographics will very soon completely marginalize the Republicans into a regional party, even fringier than they are now. They have lost young voters, are tied or losing with the middle age brackets, and only have one reliable age group in the over 60 voters.
We all know this and what does any of this have to do with abortion?
Jed gave us a diary today on the
War on WomenHouse vote on abortion ban.
Basically (and much in the same way as Republicans are working so hard to re-brand themselves with minorities) Republicans are saying:
"we must play for the base" (evangelical in this case) "and hope that women and younger voters don't hear our hatred."I was curious about how demographic trends are affected by these hyper-religious issues, so I plotted them to see what they look like. (I used exit poll data from the NY Times for 2008 and before, and I added NY Times exit poll data for 2012.) It appears that Republicans don't have a great chance with the younger population and as we all age, their electability looks even worse. The chart below shows the age demographic trends, as in percentage of electorate voted for Democrats in Presidential elections, and it certainly appears that Republicans are doomed as Democrats are poised to surpass Republicans in every voting group, including their key over 60 group not very far from now. While the trendline for this group does not look quite right to me for this group (for the statistic buffs, it must have a low R squared value - only 0.28 indicating that the extrapolation is not that reliable and that compares to 0.5 to 0.6 for the other age group trendlines) it still shows very clearly that in every other group the trends is away from the Republicans.
(1) they are dying off at a rate of about 2.5% every 4 years, which means the age group's votes for Republicans are diluted by people in the 45-59 group that is no longer reliably Republican,So please Republicans, keep ramming through anti-abortion bills! They are unpleasant and uncalled for, but they will take you down the same road where you are going with your war on "scary brown fertile people."
and (probably due to item 1, but also because of the Republican war on senior citizens that are not millionaires)
(2) even within that group they are no longer commanding secure leads - in the 70s & 80s (except for Carter-Ford) this group voted for Republicans by 60-40 to 70-30 majorities; compare that to the last 7 elections where the best they could do in this group was 56-44 - yes Mitt Romney did great!