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Please begin with an informative title:

This diary aims to identify the various brilliant DKE diaries out there on State Legislatures... Mostly concentrating on the current composition of the State Legislature, redistricting impacts, election results and predictions, and how Democratic or Republican various seats are.

This is my attempt I guess to do something similar to the official DKE resources on Congressional redistricting and the various "living" dictionary type diaries that wwmiv, SaoMagnifico and others have.

I notice that Steve Singiser has issued a rallying call to pay attention to State Legislature races.

Please feel free to correct any mistakes, as this is my attempt to sort out the data that is available. I am sure I have made many... But given Steve Singiser's diary I wanted to get this out there right away.

So I guess this is a bit of a Meta diary (I think) as it is about our community resources as opposed to original research.

The aim of this diary is to provide you all with a:

- Ready Reckoner providing quick links to DKE diaries on state legislature.
- Guide on what State Legislatures need a DKE diary...
- A collection of diaries so you can refresh yourself on what makes a great state legislature diary.
- Helpful hint on what your next diary should be !
- Chance for you to help me track down the many diaries I have missed on this topic.

This could also be a useful ongoing forum for DKE members to prompt others on what State Legislature diaries need post election follow ups/updates Eventually!).

I haven't included any fantasy redistricting diaries unless they also gave a review of the legislative maps. I also haven't included any of the Wisconsin special elections diaries (at this stage, I will include these at some stage). This is a review of DKE diaries only... so if it doesn't have the DK Elections tag then it was not included... So let me know about them. If you have any old school Swing State Project diaries that are still useful resources, I would love to link to them.


You must enter an Intro for your Diary Entry between 300 and 1150 characters long (that's approximately 50-175 words without any html or formatting markup).

Legislative Elections Predictions & Results - DKE User Diaries

Okay I scoured the Daily Kos Elections sidebar for the various diaries relating to the State of the States. Basically I am limiting it to the diaries on the various State Legislatures post 2010 Census round of redistricting...

General Summary - What States Have Been Done Well ?

The good new is that there are plenty of states out there that need diaries on the Legislatures...

There could be as many as 32 States still needing a diary... as well as Connecticut and New Hampshire not yet having diaries on their State Houses... I doubt there will be a volunteer for New Hampshire State House anytime soon of course!  

I personally would like to see diaries on Florida, Ohio (yep its a brutal gerymander this one apparently), Pennsylvania and Virginia as these State Legislatures are where are efforts should be focused on, if we want to fight for fairer (or better) redistricting. The Alaskan State Senate and Iowa are also of interest to me.

spiderdem recently listed his top 10 legislature targets each for the Dems and GOP. On his list of top 10 prospective Dem takeovers he identifies both the Pennsylvania chambers (It is the 2nd largest State Legislature with 203 House Seats and 50 Senate Seats) with the Dems holding around 46% of each chamber. His top pick is the NY State Senate... then outside the top 3, there is the Iowa State House (where Dems have 47 out of 100) and the New Hampshire State Senate (where Dems hold 11 out of 24) which would appear to be very achievable targets. Obviously given we hold the Iowa State Senate and New Hampshire State House, it would be good to get the others. The rest of his top ten would all appear to be very challenging...

In 2013 for example there are only two State holding legislative elections, New Jersey and Virginia, and Virginia has yet to have a diary on it.

So obviously there are a few local specialists who concentrate on the one State and have produced great diaries... And I hope these DKE'ers keep track of their States, but for those who are looking for a good diary idea, why not look at those States that haven't been done ? You could do a diary on Oregon but given James Allen's work it would seem to be a bit of wasted effort when you could do one on Pennsylvania. Heres hoping Steve Singiser's project also inspires a lot of people to do diaries.

If you don't have the time to do a comprehensive diary on a whole legislature then why bother ? Just do the real competitive takeover targets. I know that for many of us Xenocrypt's diaries on some key Legislative Districts in Arizona was extremely useful.


California is one of those states that had a huge array of good diaries, with many of course focused on the congressional races, but a fair few also looked at the legislative races.  Darth Jeff, then kurykh and SoCalGal23 did numerous diaries on both houses of the legislature with Xenocrypt and Alibguy also throwing in a diary each. SoCalGal23 later on provided her results to show which of her predictions panned out. Recently DrPhillips gave us tasty numbers for all the districts - what a great resource.

California (2012 Diaries)

Diary Name DK User Maps S/H Date
California Presidential numbers by State Senate and Assembly District DrPhillips No S/H April 2013
My Final 2012 Predictions, National-Level and California-Level SoCalGal23 No S/H Nov 2012
California November 2012 predictions kurykh Yes S/H Nov 2012
Outlook for California districts in 2012 - Post-Convention Edition SoCalGal23 No S/H Oct 2012
California competitive districts cheat sheet: November 2012 elections kurykh Yes S/H Oct 2012
The GOP's Golden Nightmare? A Guide to the 2012 State Senate Races in California Darth Jeff Links S May 2012
The Little Old Legislator from Pasadena: A Guide to the 2012 California Assembly Races (Part 2) Darth Jeff Links H May 2012
I Left My Assembly Seat in San Francisco: A Guide to the 2012 Elections to the CA Assembly (Part 1) Darth Jeff Links H May 2012
Assemble, ye junkies: California State Assembly projections kurykh Yes H Jul 2012
California State Senate: Current projections and future prospects kurykh Links S Jun 2012
Craig Huey's Return: A Post-Primary Look At The California Assembly Elections Xenocrypt No H Jun 2012
Analysis of California State Assembly 2012 races SoCalGal23 Links H Jul 2012
Analysis of 2012 California State Senate Races SoCalGal23 Links S Jul 2012
Outlook for California districts in 2012 - Post-Primary Edition SoCalGal23 No S/H Jun 2012
California State Senate Races Guide and Analysis Alibguy No H Mar 2012


This is the state that will no doubt attract a lot of attention as the lines could well change ... Although Gov. Perry has signed them into law.

Texas (2012 Diaries)

Diary Name DK User
Texas State Senate Interim Map (Updated with proposed changes) KingofSpades
Texas House Interim Map: 2008 and 2010 wwmiv
So, just what happened in Texas last night? TDDVandy
? ?

The Blue States & Purple States (& some Red States)

These are the blue states and/or purple states and/or red states (where the Dems are competitive in one or more of the legislatures).

The States Of Key Interest (DKE Diaries)

State DK User Diary Subject/Name
Alaska ? ?
Arizona Xenocrypt Why Arizona Didn't Trend Blue in 2012: Presidential Results by Legislative District.
Arizona Xenocrypt How competitive is the AZ legislature post-redistricting? (Note: Numbers might be a little off.)
Arizona CF of Aus Racial Profiling & Killer Republicans - (Arizona State House Primary Review)
Arizona CF of Aus Phoenix Rising - Taking Arizona Part 2 (Winning the State Senate)
Arizona CF of Aus Taking Arizona Part 1 - CDs 1-3 and the State Senate
Arkansas GradyDem Arkansas Senate: July Update
Arkansas GradyDem Arkansas Primary Preview
Arkansas GradyDem Redistricting the Arkansas Senate: Did the Democrats do it?
Colorado farleftfagala Democrats win the Colorado House
Colorado farleftfagala Retaking the Colorado House (September)
Colorado farleftfagala Battle for the Colorado Senate (September)
Colorado ? ?
Connecticut ProudNewEnglander Connecticut State Senate Races and Ratings
Connecticut ? ?
Delaware ? ?
Florida ? ?
Hawaii ? ?
Illinois ? ?
Indiana SouthernINDem Indiana State House seats Ratings II: The Rest of Indiana
Indiana SouthernINDem Indiana State House Races, Part I: Southern/ Western Indiana
Indiana SouthernINDem Guide to Election Night in Indiana
Indiana SouthernINDem The Indianapolis Metro Area: Final part of New Indiana State House Districts Analysis
Indiana SouthernINDem New Indiana State House Districts Analysis, Part II: Northwest: The Region to South Bend- Elkhart
Indiana SouthernINDem New Indiana State House Districts Analysis, Part III: Northeast, Cornfields, and Everything Else out
Indiana SouthernINDem New Indiana State House Districts Analysis, Part I: Southern/ Western Indiana
Iowa ? ?
Kansas ptgkc Kansas – Home of the new GOP (God’s Old Party)
Kansas ptgkc Kansas GOP Primary Scorecard
Kansas KingofSpades KS-Redistricting: If you want something done right...
Kansas ? ?
Kentucky SouthernINDem Kentucky Primary Preview
Kentucky ? ?
Maine ? ?
Maryland ? ?
Massachusetts ? ?
Michigan Slacks Michigan State House Viewing Guide
Michigan Slacks Taking Back the MI House Part 3
Michigan Slacks Taking Back the MI House Part 2
Michigan Slacks Taking Back the MI House Part 1
Minnesota OGGoldy Minnesota Election Postmortem: OGGoldy's report card
Minnesota AndrewMN Analysis and Race Ratings: MN State Legislature (with maps!)
Minnesota OGGoldy Minnesota: Final Predictions, Part II
Minnesota OGGoldy Minnesota: Final Prediction, Part I
Minnesota OGGoldy Minnesota Primary Post-Mortem: State Legislature
Minnesota OGGoldy Minnesota Legislature. Wo is running where? Part 2: Metro
Minnesota OGGoldy Minnesota Legislature. Who is running where? Part 1: Outstate
Minnesota OGGoldy Minnesota Legislature Part II: Metro
Minnesota OGGoldy Minnesota Legislative Districts Part I: outstate
Montana ? ?
Nevada atdnext #NVLeg: New Nevada Senate Race Ratings
Nevada atdnext New Nevada Legislature Race Ratings: Part 2, The Assembly
Nevada atdnext New Nevada Legislature Race Ratings: Part 1, The Senate
Nevada atdnext Nevada Primary Preview
Nevada SouthernINDem New Nevada Assembly Districts
Nevada SouthernINDem New Nevada Senate Districts
New Hampshire Alizarin Indigo A Democratic/Republican New Hampshire State Senate
New Hampshire ? ?
New Jersey KingofSpades 2011 NJ State Legislative Races: Maps and Analysis
New Jersey ? ?
New Mexico ? ?
New York ? ?
North Carolina possumtracker Analysis of New NC State Senate Districts
North Carolina roguemapper roguemapper Comment
North Carolina roguemapper The New North Carolina Political Landscape - Updated
Ohio ? ?
Oregon James Allen State of Oregon Elections: One Month Out
Oregon James Allen State of Oregon's elections, pre-Labor Day Update
Oregon James Allen 2012 State of Oregon Elections: the Legislature
Oregon James Allen Oregon's Next Legislature (Image Heavy)
Oregon James Allen Oregon elections liveblog
Pennsylvania ? ?
Rhode Island ? ?
Vermont ? ?
Virginia ? ?
Washington ? ?
West Virginia ? ?
Wisconsin CentralWIGuy WI Assembly, Nov. 2012 Election
Wisconsin CentralWIGuy WI Assembly Election, 2012
Wisconsin ? ?

Red States - Uncompetitive Legislatures

These are the states where the legislatures are no longer competitive for Democrats... And there is generally little interest in diaries... except for fantasy redistricting diaries of course. However if you want to prove me wrong and show how the Mississippi and Louisiana Blue Dogs can still win back their only recently lost houses then please do.
Note: As you all know, Nebraska is a Unicarmel legislature and officially non-partisan.

The South & Great Plain States (2012 Diaries)

State DK User Diary Subject/Name
Alabama ? ?
Georgia ? ?
Georgia fearlessfred14 Georgia Legislative Elections Overview
Idaho ? ?
Louisiana ? ?
Mississsippi ? ?
Missouri ? ?
Nebraska ? ?
North Dakota ? ?
Oklahoma ? ?
South Carolina ? ?
South Dakota ? ?
Tennessee ? ?
Utah ? ?
Wyoming ? ?

Spotlight on Key State Legislature Seats

In this modern day gerrymandered world sometimes it is a bit of waste writing about the whole legislature... When there are sometimes only a few competitive seats. Here are a collection of the spotlighted races. The Xenocrypt diaries are excellent for understanding Arizona or as a good guide to reviewing a key legislative seat. Sometimes of course there is an especially interesting special election or a recall (eg. the Wisconsin Recalls, or the removal of the especially odious Russell Pearce). But at this stage I haven't bothered too much to find these ones.

Miscellaneous (2012 Diaries)

Diary Name DK User Diary Subject
AZ-LD-06: The tough (but maybe winnable) district between Democrats and the Arizona Legislature. Xenocrypt An in depth analysis of an AZ Legislative District
Republicans Could Lose The Arizona Legislature, But It Might Come Down To These Races (LD-28) Xenocrypt An in depth analysis of an AZ Legislative District
Republicans Could Lose Control Of The Arizona Legislature--And It Could Come Down To This Race Xenocrypt An in depth analysis of an AZ Legislative District
Top 5 Races To Watch In Florida BKGyptian89 Looks at HD30 and SD34
CA-Assembly: Democrats win 55th seat, expand supermajority kurykh An in depth look at how Democrat Steve Fox won the 36th State Assembley District in California which is a traditional Republican stronghold in Antelope Valley.
Kentucky HD-56 Special Election SouthernINDem A look at whether the HD-56 election in June 2013 will see the Cementing a Democratic Majority or the Beginning of the End of Democratic Dominance in the Kentucky House
Why My District Went Red: An Analysis of Tuesday's Special Election in Connecticut ProudNewEnglander A look at the Connecticut 53rd Assembly June 2013 Special Election
(UPDATED 6/11/13) Who and Where Are the Democratic Representatives Holding Up Marriage in Illinois? sapelcovits A bit of a look at who in the house is dragging the chain on marriage equality
Democratic Turnout in California's 16th State Senate District Alibguy A look at the CA-16 State Senate District after the Special Election in 2013
Minnesota Special Elections 14A and 19A OGGoldy A look at some Special Elections in Feb 2013
? ? ?

Good Resources for State Legislature Diaries - DKE User Diaries

Miscellaneous (2012 Diaries)

Diary Name DK User Diary Subject
California State Legislature district PVIs (with a crowdsourcing ask) kurykh This diary attempts to kickstart a mission on obtaining the 2012 PVIs for the California State Legislature.
Oregon Political Geography and Redistricting 101 James Allen This diary is a resource that aims to help people with any Oregon related redistricting diaries.
Handicapping Minnesota For 2012 County by County--Obama Counties Mark27 A look at the election results and predictions for the 2012 elections for Minnesota's counties.
Handicapping Minnesota for 2012 County by County--Romney Counties Mark27 A look at the election results and predictions for the 2012 elections for Minnesota's counties.
Oregon Political Geography 303: Mid Willamette Valley James Allen A look at Yamhill, Polk and Marion Counties, Oregon
Oregon Political Geography 302: Portland James Allen A look at Portland
Oregon Political Geography 301: The Suburbs James Allen A look at the suburbs east of Portland in Multnomah County, and the suburbs in Washington and Clackamas counties.
Political Geography of Maine, Part 1 (Southwest Maine) ProudNewEnglander A look at York and Cumberland Counties, Maine
The Bay State's Political Regions- Breaking Down Massachusetts' 2012 US Senate Election Results IllinoyedR A really good review of how Massachusetts various political regions voted in 2012
? ? ?
There was also a few other crackers that might be useful, and are certainly both educational and entertaining: The Palm Beach Puzzle: How did a diversifying urban county trend Republican? by Xenocrypt, The Eastside's Political Geography: Tracing Eastern Suburban Seattle's Political History by IllinoyedR, 21st Century Orange County: A Walk-Through by jncca.
Extended (Optional)

Originally posted to CF of Aus on Tue Jul 02, 2013 at 01:36 AM PDT.

Also republished by Community Spotlight.


Will you be doing a diary on a State Legislature that hasnt been covered yet ?

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