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I haven't seen much polls being done or reported on the race in Florida's 2nd Congressional District but it appears this one indicates there may be a real race between Democratic Candidate Gwen Graham and Rep. Steve Southerland.
Emily’s List poll: Southerland 44, Graham 42
Posted Sep 5, 2013 by William March
Updated Sep 5, 2013 at 03:57 PM
A poll in the congressional race between Rep. Steve Southerland and Gwen Graham shows her nipping at the incumbent Republican’s heels, trailing by less than the poll’s error margin.
The poll was done for Emily’s List, a political action group that supports Democratic women candidates, by Clarity Campaign Labs, a relatively new Washington-based polling and political consulting firm.
The firm is Democratic-oriented, as is Emily’s List, but Marcy Stech, Emily’s List spokeswoman, said it’s reliable.
“It’s a very credible poll. We do these types of polls routinely, and often use them for our own decision-making process,” Stech said. “We have every reason to believe this will be a very competitive race. It’s clear voters are losing faith in Steve Southerland.”
In addition, the sample of participants in the poll contains 1,152 registered voters in the FL-02 Congressional District. Numbers seem to indicate that while Southerland has a good deal of support, he's vulnerable for re-election as he's one of those below 50% guys.
Asked whether they would vote to re-elect Southerland or elect someone else, the respondents split 40-40 percent with 20 percent undecided. In a head-to-head matchup question, results were Southerland 44 percent, Graham 42 percent and “unsure” 14 percent.
Of course, this is September 2013, it's still early in the race, and new polls will eventually come out.
However, in 2012 then-Democratic Candidate Al Lawson nearly knocked Southernland out of re-election trajectory as he only lost a few percentage points to the incumbent Congressman: