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Taking current vacancies into account, it takes 217 votes to pass legislation in the House of Representatives. There are 200 Democrats. That means it would take just 17 Republicans to vote for a clean funding bill that would prevent a government shutdown from taking place or to end a government shutdown after it starts.
That's exactly what will happen. There is no question about this, except for the infinitesimally small chance that Republicans will simply decide to never fund the government again. If they want to get rid of Obamacare, they're going to need to win the next national election, because without the presidency and without both chambers of Congress, they simply can't do it.
In the meantime, there are certainly 17 Republicans willing to vote to prevent a shutdown, or to end it almost as soon as it starts, so we already know how this story is going to end. The only question is how low House Speaker John Boehner will let his conference sink before he finally ends this madness.