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1.  So Boehner is not willing to plunge the country in to chaos by allowing a debt default.  This is good for the country.

2.  But some portion of his caucus will see this as betrayal.  This is bad for Boehner.

3.  He will end up passing a debt ceiling bill with Democratic votes.  He will have to negotiate with Pelosi over how high (or long) he raises the ceiling.  This is good for the country.

4.  The fact that he negotiates with Pelosi will be seen as further betrayal by a portion of his caucus.  This is bad for Boehner.

5.  The fact that he broke the Hastert rule to pass the debt ceiling bill will beg the question, "why not do the same thing for the CR?"  This bad for the GOP.

6.  Passing a debt ceiling bill but not a CR will cement the GOP's ownership of the shutdown.  Boehner is showing the way out, but refusing to take it.

7.  The President has been surprisingly feisty and resolute.  Strength is appealing.  This is good for Obama.

8.  When the polls show a potential mid term disaster looming for the GOP, Boehner will be able to pass a CR.  "These crazies are killing us!" he will say.

9.  The sooner a CR is passed, the less impact this self inflicted wound will have on the GOP's mid-term prospects.

10.  I think Boehner will have to handle or head off a revolt in his caucus, but that he survives.


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