OK

This is only a Preview!

You must Publish this diary to make this visible to the public,
or click 'Edit Diary' to make further changes first.

Posting a Diary Entry

Daily Kos welcomes blog articles from readers, known as diaries. The Intro section to a diary should be about three paragraphs long, and is required. The body section is optional, as is the poll, which can have 1 to 15 choices. Descriptive tags are also required to help others find your diary by subject; please don't use "cute" tags.

When you're ready, scroll down below the tags and click Save & Preview. You can edit your diary after it's published by clicking Edit Diary. Polls cannot be edited once they are published.

If this is your first time creating a Diary since the Ajax upgrade, before you enter any text below, please press Ctrl-F5 and then hold down the Shift Key and press your browser's Reload button to refresh its cache with the new script files.

ATTENTION: READ THE RULES.

  1. One diary daily maximum.
  2. Substantive diaries only. If you don't have at least three solid, original paragraphs, you should probably post a comment in an Open Thread.
  3. No repetitive diaries. Take a moment to ensure your topic hasn't been blogged (you can search for Stories and Diaries that already cover this topic), though fresh original analysis is always welcome.
  4. Use the "Body" textbox if your diary entry is longer than three paragraphs.
  5. Any images in your posts must be hosted by an approved image hosting service (one of: imageshack.us, photobucket.com, flickr.com, smugmug.com, allyoucanupload.com, picturetrail.com, mac.com, webshots.com, editgrid.com).
  6. Copying and pasting entire copyrighted works is prohibited. If you do quote something, keep it brief, always provide a link to the original source, and use the <blockquote> tags to clearly identify the quoted material. Violating this rule is grounds for immediate banning.
  7. Be civil. Do not "call out" other users by name in diary titles. Do not use profanity in diary titles. Don't write diaries whose main purpose is to deliberately inflame.
For the complete list of DailyKos diary guidelines, please click here.

Please begin with an informative title:

In classic discussions of foreign policy analysis, the most basic understanding of how states or political entities make decisions is called the "rational actor model."  For those who are unfamiliar, the rational actor model presupposes that a state or political entity - if they are rational - has goals, understands costs / consequences and wants to balance these factors in order to maximize either goal achievement or profitable consequences.  

And, in this theme, there are also "irrational actors", usually failed nation-states, non-state entities or individuals who bear no care for consequences in their seeking of goals.  

The GOP has seemingly slipped from being a rational actor to an irrational one.  The defense for this statement should be obvious to anyone from either party:

-  The leadership of the GOP is no longer in control of its members.  Therefore, rational goal setting and consequence avoidance is no longer being effected on its populace.

-  The members of the party have no clear goals towards which to consider cost / benefit.

-  When presented with clearly bad consequences, many of the party are unsure, unaware or uninformed of the pain of these consequences, leading them to believe that no cost would be worth avoiding the consequence.

-  There is now a precedent of consequences being entered into by the GOP without consideration of the harm or pain of those consequences and no effort to move out of them, not for clear goal reasons, but because control has been lost (Sequester, SNAP, the Farm Bill, and the shutdown.)

This leads to an inescapable conclusion that the GOP has become at best "not a rational actor" and at worst a classically irrational actor.  

The problem with an irrational actor in foreign policy or domestic politics is that rational actors who deal with an irrational actor fall into the trap of believing that the irrational actor or party will act ... rationally.

The debt ceiling is approaching.  The GOP has become an irrational actor.  There is no assurance that we won't go over the debt ceiling.  In fact, if you were a betting man or woman, based on precedence, we're likely to go over the debt ceiling not because there is a rational choice by the GOP to do so, but because no one has a clear goal or sense of the consequences that will be invoked ... just like the sequester, the Farm Bill and the shutdown.

The question is less about whether we'll fall through the debt ceiling and more likely to become one of historic proportions: how will the voting public treat a party that has dissolved into a failed, irrational political entity in 2014?  And how much are we about to lose in terms of personal savings and international power to conduct this experiment?

Intro

You must enter an Intro for your Diary Entry between 300 and 1150 characters long (that's approximately 50-175 words without any html or formatting markup).

Extended (Optional)

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.