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Please begin with an informative title:

private jobs
The chart above shows ADP and the Bureau of Labor Statistics closely meshing in their measures of
private-sector job growth. But the apparent close count is due to ADP's subsequent revisions.
The monthly report on private job creation put together by Automated Data Processing and Moody's Analytics usually is released two days before the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its report on both private- and public jobs. But the BLS report for October has been delayed until Nov. 8 because of the federal shutdown the first two weeks of the month. So ADP's gauge for October is all decision-makers will have to go on for the moment.

The consensus of experts surveyed in advance put the seasonally adjusted private-sector growth in jobs at around 150,000 for the month. Instead, ADP reported Wednesday just 130,000. And it lowered to 145,000 the 166,000 jobs it reported for September. It also lowered its numbers for August from 159,000 to 151,000.

Even though it changed its methodology last November to better match the BLS measurements, that didn't quite do the trick, and ADP has continued to miss the bureau's estimates by fairly wide margins each month since then. Its original tallies don't look like the chart above, which uses revised figures that nudge the results closer to the BLS report after-the-fact. But the ADP report does usually show the same trend as the BLS report. The New Jersey-based ADP provides payroll processing, human resource and benefit administration services to some 600,000 clients worldwide.

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "The government shutdown and debt limit brinksmanship hurt the already softening job market in October. Average monthly growth has fallen below 150,000. Any further weakening would signal rising unemployment. The weaker job growth is evident across most industries and company sizes.”
Some details:

• By Sector: goods-producers, 24,000 jobs; service-providers, 107,000 jobs

• Industry Snapshot: construction, 14,000; manufacturing, 5,000; trade/transportation/utilities, 40,000; financial activities, -5,000; professional/business services, 20,000

• By Company Size: small businesses, 37,000 (1-19 employees 35,000; 20-49 employees 2,000); medium businesses (50-499 employees), 13,000; large businesses, 81,000 (500-999 employees, 2,000; 1,000+ employees, 79,000).


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Originally posted to Daily Kos Labor on Wed Oct 30, 2013 at 07:30 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos Economics and Daily Kos.

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