I don't know how short a diary can be...but way this games out can be explained in a very few sentences...
The logic is inescapable; a certain proportion of GOP women voters will pull the lever for Hillary because she is a woman, and for no other reason relating to policy or qualifications.
That proportion may be high or low- but the available margin for the GOP is razor thin- a few points at most.
If this headline is correct (@ 35 points), it's pointless to even have an election.
If that support is less astounding but still considerable, it also means certain defeat for the GOP.
As I see it, if (when) Hillary wins the nomination, the GOP must run a woman, or they cannot win.
So to me, the single most important/interesting storyline of the 2016 GOP nomination is: where will they find this woman?
And if you think of GOP women, there is one name that stands above all others.
As silly as this sounds, I believe she is the next nominee. The logic seems also inescapable; she has had 6 years to pick up her game, she has already run on
a ticket, all the attacks that could be made have been made, and she is 125% acceptable to the nominating base of the party.
To calm the remnants of the establishment, she merely needs to pick a non-controversial male establishment-type for VP early, and it's over.
Are there any establishment-type GOP women that have a chance otherwise? My mind draws a blank.... If I were a betting man, this is how I would bet it would unfold.