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Here we go, one of the first important GOP primaries of the election season! The GOP has a chance to fumble this race in the primary (as in almost every primary we have), however the VA-10 GOP has come up with a solution: Firehouse Primary. This is when the primary election is held within only a certain time of the day and there is less time to vote in it, 8am-3pm in this one I believe. That way only the party faithful, and in this case the establishment comes out to vote for the "preferred' candidate. VA-10 has basically become a tossup race without Rep. Frank Wolf (R) to hold the seat down, with the Cook Report giving VA-10 a PVI of R+2 and a rating of Lean Republican. All of that could change with the wrong candidate winning, if that happens I see this race quickly moving to the Likely Democratic PICKUP column. The other candidates not Republicans in the race include Democratic Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust (likely winner in the general if the GOP screws up here), Independent Frank Piliere, and Independent Green Dianne Blais.
The GOP candidates in the race are as follows:
State Delegate Barbara Comstock (Mod GOP Hold)
She is the establishment choice and if the winner of this primary will likely move on to be a tough competitor to John Foust (D), I would rate her as the one having the advantage in the general election, if she wins the primary. She is slated to do so if she wins, because she seems to have united all the GOP factions without stepping on anyone's toes in terms of social issues or economic issues.
State Delegate Bob Marshall (Likely Democratic PICKUP)
He is the choice of the crazies in the GOP, he has foot-in-the-mouth disease and has said intolerant things before, such as calling Anthony Kennedy gay... If the GOP nominates him Foust (D) will be cheering and will probably cruise to a win. He has a path to victory, if he turns out a majority of his smaller base of voters and the establishment doesn't take him seriously then he could win.
None of the other candidates have been on TV or radio ads so this is a Comstock vs. Marshall battle. I want Comstock to win, but....
I give this a 20% that Marshall wins, because GOP Primaries have disappointed the party countless times before.