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Please begin with an informative title:

So if you haven't heard, there's a new poll out that has David Perdue (R. GA) with a big lead over Michelle Nunn (D. GA):


Republican U.S. Senate nominee David Perdue holds a solid lead over Democratic opponent Michelle Nunn in a poll released Wednesday.

Among 624 “active” Georgia voters surveyed by Vox Populi Polling, 49 percent said they would vote for Perdue or were leaning that way compared to 40 percent for Nunn. Ten percent were undecided.

The poll was conducted July 27-28 in the midst of the leaking of an internal Nunn strategy memo that drew criticism of the former nonprofit CEO.

Nearly 500 of the interviews conducted by Vox Populi were done with automated telephone technology. For the rest, the pollster used mobile-based survey tools.

The poll’s margin of error was plus-or-minus 3.9 percent. - Atlanta Business Chronicle, 7/30/14

Here's some more info:


The poll was conducted Sunday and Monday. The news started to spread about the Nunn campaign’s internal memo Monday afternoon.

Among the other findings were: 56 percent disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance; 23 percent believe Obamacare is a success, compared to 48 percent who say failure and 28 percent say something in between; and 52 percent say the fact that Nunn “has refused to say whether or not she would have voted for Obamacare” makes them less likely to vote for her.

The poll’s sample was 62 percent white and 28 percent black, which is in line with the racial vote share in Georgia’s 2010 midterm elections. The Nunn campaign is hoping to shift those numbers so the African-American vote share is closer to 30 percent.

Here’s a note on the poll’s methodology, a mix of robo-calls and mobile responses:

The sample size for the survey is 624 active voters taken from a listed sample of registered voters who voted in the 2010 or 2012 general election or registered since the 2012 general election. The margin of error is +/- 3.9%. 497 interviews were completed using automate telephone technology and 127 were conducted using mobile based survey technology. All interviews were conducted July 27–July  28, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. - Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 7/30/14

Before you freak out about this poll from this Republican firm, let me highlight something from David Nir and the DKE team:
Republican pollster Vox Populi, the firm founded earlier this year by Mary Cheney, says that newly minted GOP nominee David Perdue leads Democrat Michelle Nunn by a gaudy 49-40 margin in Georgia's Senate contest. It's Vox's first poll of the race, and it's also by far the most optimistic finding for Perdue to date. But is it right? Another Republican outfit, Landmark, just found Nunn ahead 47-43, and Vox has almost no track record to evaluate it by.

Oh, well, except for the Eric Cantor race. Vox, you'll recall, had the deposed GOP majority leader up 52-39 on his primary challenger, Dave Brat, only to watch him lose by 11. That 24-point muff would have stood out for a long time had it not been for Cantor's own pollster, McLaughlin & Associates, which missed by an even more epic 45 points. But make no mistake: Vox's results sucked hard, and unless and until they build up more of a resume, this is all we have to judge them by.

Here's the results from the Vox poll showing Cantor with a big lead before his epic demise:


So yeah.  Take it with a grain of salt but polling has been all over the place with this race which makes me believe it's pretty tight.  But there is one thing we can learn from the runoff:


UNITED STATES - Dec 12: Rep. Jack Kingston, R-GA., address the media during a press conference in the House Studio B in the U.S. Capitol on December 12, 2013. &nbsp;(Photo By Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call)
Journalists and pundits should have learned that endorsements don’t really carry too much weight and don’t guarantee a transfer of support to the candidate who gets endorsed. If endorsements mattered, Kingston would have clobbered David Perdue in the Senate Republican runoff by at least 10 percentage points. Nearly every GOP official of any stature in Georgia endorsed Kingston, as did two of the candidates who finished behind him in the primary (Handel and Gingrey). Even some tea party types got behind Kingston in his runoff campaign, but all of these high-powered endorsements amounted to nothing. Perdue beat Kingston anyway for the Republican nomination.

Everyone involved in politics—voters, candidates, consultants and journalists—should have learned this valuable lesson from the runoff: you can’t always put a lot of faith in what the pollsters are telling you. During the week prior to the July 22 runoff, three major independent polls were released that showed Kingston leading Perdue by an average of 6 percentage points. Matt Towery of Insider Advantage released this statement after his firm conducted a poll that showed Kingston leading by 5 points:

“This survey indicates that Kingston has managed to retake momentum in the race with under a week to go… Perdue’s campaign and his supporters have emphasized their candidate’s ‘political outsider’ position as a candidate running against the ‘insider’ Kingston. While that theme has worked well with older voters, it has lost its magic, having run long enough to pull in all of the votes it can.”

Actually, Perdue hadn’t lost any magic at all.  As the events of July 22 subsequently proved, his strategy of running as an “outsider” was precisely the path to victory that his campaign needed. - Flagpole, 7/30/14

That and getting Atlanta voters come out for you and funneling potentially illegal Super PAC dollars is also helpful.  You can read more here:


Meanwhile, Nunn is hitting the campaign trail hard pushing her platform:


Nunn went on to list several issues her campaign (and possible tenure in Washington) will focus on, like supporting economic conditions for job and private-sector growth, simplifying and reforming the tax code, comprehensively and bipartisanly reforming immigration policy and investing in education, specifically early childhood education.

“Ultimately, this election is going to be won based upon the passion and enthusiasm and inspiration of people like you that really believe it’s time for Georgia to create a change. Y’all think it’s time for Georgia to create change?” she asked the crowd, who responded with hearty applause and whoops.

Since the runoff decided that her opponent for the Senate seat would be Perdue rather than Kingston, Nunn offered a few words on how she would be adjusting her campaign accordingly. Though they both are sort-of outsiders from Washington, Nunn believes their records are very different.

“My record is around building communities, lifting people up, trying to make a difference, a demonstrated track record of working with folks from the other side,” said Nunn, noting that she ran former President George H. W. Bush’s organization for seven years. “We’re going to continue to talk about how we need to change the dysfunction in Washington through civility and collaboration and trying to work together. And I think that’s going to be a real point of contrast.”

“The only way of creating change in Washington is to send different kinds of leaders to Washington,” Nunn also said.

Wednesday the campaign sent out an email at 7:55 a.m., asking supporters to give $7.55, in an effort to raise money, obviously, but also to mobilize a communal, grassroots movement behind Nunn. According to the candidate herself, she issued a challenge to Perdue to keep the nondisclosed campaign donations out of Georgia, but she says he declined. About 40,000 people have contributed to her campaign, whereas Perdue has about 2,000. - Flagpole, 7/30/14

This race is still our to win.  Don't let the faux polls fool you, we just have to make sure our base gets out to the polls.  Click here to donate and get involved with Nunn's campaign:

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Originally posted to pdc on Wed Jul 30, 2014 at 12:54 PM PDT.

Also republished by Kos Georgia and The Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party.

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