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Democratic partisan self-identification is heading up.
An average of all national Gallup polling in 2006, consisting of interviews with more than 30,000 adult Americans, finds 34% of Americans identifying as Democrats, 30% as Republicans, and 34% as independents. The parties had been relatively even in terms of national strength since 2001. The most recent figures represent the largest Democratic advantage since the Clinton presidency.(...)
The increasing Democratic advantage is mainly due to declining Republican identification, rather than increasing Democratic identification. From 2004-2006, Republican identification declined from 34% to 30%, while Democratic identification increased by less than a percentage point (33.6% to 34.3%). During the last three years, the percentage of Americans identifying as independents increased from 31% to 34%.
The Democrats' advantage expands when taking into account the "leanings" of independents. In 2006, 50% of Americans identified as Democrats or were independents who said they leaned toward the Democratic Party. Forty percent identified as Republicans or leaned to the Republican Party. That 10-point advantage more than doubled the Democrats' 4-point advantage in 2005, and is the largest gap Gallup has measured in any year for either party since it regularly began tracking leaned party identification in 1991. This is the first time since 1991 that a party's support reached the 50% level.
Of the 48 continental states plus D.C. polled by Gallup, 33 show clear Democratic advantages, and just six show a Republican advantage. From most Democratic to least:
D/Lean D Ind. R/Lean R RI 66 8 26 VT 64 9 27 MA 63 8 29 CT 61 11 29 AR 60 6 34 ME 58 10 32 NY 58 8 34 WV 58 8 34 MD 58 7 35 NH 55 12 33 MO 55 8 37 WA 54 10 36 MI 52 11 37 OH 53 8 39 NJ 52 10 38 IL 52 9 39 KY 54 6 41 NM 54 5 41 MN 53 6 41 CA 51 8 40 FL 51 9 40 IA 51 10 40 NC 52 7 41 OR 49 12 39 VA 51 8 41 NV 48 12 40 PA 50 9 42 IN 49 10 42 OK 50 7 43 AZ 50 6 44 WI 49 9 42 MT 47 11 42 GA 48 8 44 KS 48 8 44 AL 49 5 46 LA 47 10 44 TN 47 9 44 CO 47 7 46 MS 44 7 49 SD 41 11 48 SC 44 6 50 TX 42 8 50 NE 37 9 55 ID 35 11 54 UT 33 6 62
Seeing Colorado so far down on the list, I'm even more impressed at the Democratic performance the past two cycles. There's a reason Colorado got a serious look at in Crashing the Gate -- it's exhibit A of how a unified progressive movement can dramatically transform a state. Compare it to far more Democratic states, and it's no contest. Colorado may very well sport the most organized, most effective movement in the country. I can't wait to celebrate the Democratic convention in Denver next year.
So how do these current numbers compare historically?
States where Republicans no longer have an edge: Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, Kansas, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Dakota, Tennessee
States where Democrats have gained an edge: Delaware, Florida, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin
States where both took place: Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Virginia
States where Democrats lost an edge: Louisiana
Yet more bad news for a Republican Party reeling from nothing but bad news.
Originally posted to Daily Kos on Wed Jan 31, 2007 at 01:39 PM PST.