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I'm convinced ARG just pulls numbers out of its ass. I do that too, but I'm not a pollster. That said, Rass seems to confirm the significant Clinton lead. In fact, if I had to bet, I'd bet that Rhode Island is the state that stops Obama's winning streak.
I said last week, when polls still gave Clinton the narrow advantage in Texas, that Obama would win it by 10 if the election was last week. Today, I say he'd win by 15 if the election was tomorrow. These polls are completely failing to capture the breath and depth of Obama's ground game and the excitement he is generating. But if nothing else, they're capturing the obvious movement in Obama's direction.
Unlike Texas, where I'm fairly confident of the Obama advantage (regardless what the polls might say), I'm less sure about what's going on in Ohio. If the election were tomorrow, I'd guess a +5-7 point Clinton victory. I'm also less sure about the trendlines. Sure, Obama is gaining, but Clinton is also holding her support. And given she's around the 50 percent mark, Obama can't win unless 1) she starts weakening, or 2) Obama's turnout operation is better than Clinton's.
If the election was tomorrow, I'd expect big Obama wins in Texas and Vermont, a big Clinton win in Rhode Island, and a narrow Clinton win in Ohio. Enough to keep her in the race? Hardly, especially given what will be worsening money problems and a prohibitive deficit in delegates and the popular vote. But who knows.
And yes, ARG sucks.
Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 04:07 PM PST.