Just a quick polling update here from SurveyUSA and Rasmussen - also a few points from ARG (for what they're worth) in North Carolina and Gallup. Essentially, Obama is holding steady or improving by virtually any measure. No recent poll nationally, or in the upcoming states, has him suffering significantly from his 9 point loss in Pennsylvania. Quick numbers:
Clinton 52 (55)
Obama 43 (39)
Obama 49 (48, 47)
Clinton 41 (42, 43)
Obama 52 (52)
Clinton 41 (41)
Obama 47 (47, 48)
Clinton 47 (47, 47)
A few notes...
On the SUSA Indiana poll, they note some favorable trends for Obama that have bolstered his position and are far more li line with his results from other states, while Clinton is improving among independents (which is out of the norm for her previous results). To me, that's indicative of an outlier for Clinton, and a proven improvement for Obama, so this may actually be even closer than we think, if Clinton's strength among independents is indeed an outlier. This is especially true since SUSA only has Obama at 78% of support among African-Americans, and 46% of support among men.
The results are identical to a SurveyUSA TV poll released 4 weeks ago, on 04/01/08. Clinton led then 52% to 43%, leads now 52% to 43%. Other polls show the contest closer; some polls show Obama ahead. SurveyUSA tracking graphs show movement toward Clinton in the middle of April but offsetting movement to Obama at the end of April. This back-and-forth can be seen clearly on the interactive tracking graphs for males, for Democrats, for pro-choice voters, and for residents of greater Indianapolis. Clinton's advantage is steady among women, steady among voters age 50+, and steady in Southern Indiana, which borders Kentucky. Obama is gaining ground among voters under 50, where he leads for the first time; among liberals, where he leads for the first time; in Northern Indiana, where he is tied for the first time; and in Central Indiana, where he has cut Clinton's lead in half. Clinton, by contrast, is making steady inroads among Independent voters.On the ARG North Carolina poll, they also seem to undercount Obama's support among African Americans, putting him at only 83%, when that number will probably end up at 90%.
On the Gallup poll, it's really not great news for Obama (and Rasmussen's probably a little too good). He's stabilized, and I'm guessing the truth is somewhere in the middle.
On the whole, things are not looking bad for Obama - if he continues to improve among his best constituencies, as he has in every other state so far, this could easily end up tied (or better) in Indiana, and a really big win in North Carolina. Together, they ARE Pennsylvania - combined, they have 167 delegates to Pennsylvania's 168. Let's take these two and point to the scoreboard.