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Please begin with an informative title:

Every State. Every race. Right here.

This is number 39 in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole Broadway lineup! Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.

It’s time! The all-important, solid blue state of NEW YORK is up for discussion (in two parts) at last! Join me below the fold...

Intro

You must enter an Intro for your Diary Entry between 300 and 1150 characters long (that's approximately 50-175 words without any html or formatting markup).

http://www.nationalatlas.com/...

And a view of the NYC area:

http://www.nationalatlas.com/...

New York is big enough to need two diaries. Today I’ll concentrate on the Atlantic corridor part of NY (NYC, Long Island and Westchester). Upstate will be up in a day or two.

The metro area as a whole has changed a lot since Nelson Rockefeller’s day.  The city was always a Democratic bastion, but I remember when certain neighborhoods like the East Side of Manhattan had wealthy, moderate to liberal Republicans, and suburban Nassau and Westchester were full of Archie Bunker Republicans, most of whom had long Italian last names.  The most famous was Senator Alphonse D’amato, who prided himself on his sleaze, and openly screwed other districts to bring home ethically dubious pork to New York, mocked OJ Simpson Judge Ito using a goofy Japanese accent, etc.  People used to ask me what New York was thinking, embracing a dirtbag like that. I’d tell them---“Have you ever backed a reform candidate, someone who rode into the election on a White Horse, promising to be a champion of the people, to do the right thing, to be your hero, your prince charming, the warrior who would beat the rot at the top? And maybe you went to the mat for that candidate, and worked yourself to the bone to get him elected—and then he turned out to be just another crook? And you felt absolutely devastated, and let down, and you wondered whether you would ever be able to trust another human being with a promise ever again?  Well, with Al D’amato, you never had to worry about that.

Al D’amato is long gone. So are most of the other Archie Bunkers. Vito Fossella was the last of a breed, and we’re glad to see them move on to Southern suburbs and Orange county CA. Today, the neighborhoods may have many ethnic divisions, but they all vote Democrat. Even Nassau County, which in 2009 is likely to be the last part of lower NY still represented in Congress by a Republican, leans Democrat.

BLOGS:  One of the best single-state blogs in the country is The Albany Project, with a special focus on the quest to take New York’s State Senate from the Republicans and change New York politics for a generation. Looks like it’s gonna happen, too.

http://www.thealbanyproject.com/

Another good blog is Daily Gotham, with special attention to the NY metro area:

http://www.dailygotham.com/

And a special blog, often linked here, devoted entirely to the Staten Island-based 13th district, NY-13.

http://www.ny13.blogspot.com/

Plenty of other sources are highlighted on the right hand side of the Albamy Project’s main page.

PRESIDENT: : Safe Obama.  Good thing, too—Obama needs to bypass this state and instead spend time in the swing states of OHIO, MISSOURI, VIRGINIA, NORTH CAROLINA, FLORIDA, COLORADO, INDIANA and NEVADA. Remember those states, and focus on them.

SENATE:  None this year. Hillary Clinton won her second term in 2006, and Chuck Schumer isn’t up until 2010. Both are Senators for Life, unless they succeed in moving up.

GOVERNOR AND OTHER STATEWIDE: Nothing until 2010. However, I will note that David Patterson became Governor this year after one of the Democratic party’s biggest rock stars, Elliot Spitzer, resigned from office for fucking!  What is it with these Democrats deciding they just aren’t qualified to serve the public and have active sex lives?  Do they get phone calls from Senator "Stick it out Larry "Craig, Senator "Diapers" Vitter, Rep. "Vino" Fossella and "America’s Playa", Rudy Guliani, piously telling them that anyone who fucks has to step down from office unless they’re Republicans, and they just say "Uh, OK, guys"?  
Enough, people! Remember your roots! John Kennedy fucked! Bobby Kennedy fucked! Martin Luther King fucked! Supreme Court Justice William Douglas got hisself a new 20 year old wife every 20 years! And they were great liberal heroes! Can you imagine where America would be if they had left office years ahead of time the first time some Republican accused them of fucking? We’re DEMOCRATS! We LIKE sexual freedom! Anyone who’s gonna vote against you for fucking probably never voted for you anyway. Just stay through the end of your terms, already. Personally, if Obama names Spitzer to fill his first Supreme Court vacancy, just to give the Republicans the ol’ one-digit salute, I’ll be the first one on my feet, applauding till by hands bleed. We oughta forgive Spitzer immediately and send him to kill and eat Republicans as soon as possible. And if the neo-calvinists hate him for fucking, well fuck THEM! You can, anyhow. I only fuck passionate, sexually experienced LIBERALS!
Ok. Ok. Calm blue ocean....Right. Now where was I? Oh, right. No statewide elections in New York this year.  We keep going...

STATE LEGISLATURE:  

State Assembly:  Solid, solid Democrat. 103 Democrats out of a body of 150. That’s a better than 2/3 majority, with 42 Republicans, a couple of left-leaning alternative party representatives, and some vacancies.  The lower house kicks Republican ass.

Senate: THE BIG ONE.  Stuck with a Republican majority since 1965, the Senate is now down to a ONE SEAT DEFICIT, at 29D, 31R.

But wait, there’s more! The Senate has 62 seats, not 60, and two of those seats are vacant! NOW how much would you pay?

Don’t answer yet!  The Senate majority leader, trilobite fossil Joe Bruno, the guy who masterminded GOP Senate dominance for over a decade, has stepped down from office, leaving HIS seat in jeopardy and virtually guaranteeing a flip.  NOW how much would you pay?

Look again...you also get FOUR solid blue New York City seats that have elected Republican Senators SOLELY on the platform of “being the majority party and therefore having influence”!  Guys—we flip the Senate this year, and it ain’t never going back until events happen in the distant future that we can’t contemplate.  Flip the Senate, and those close GOP-held Congressional districts go away forever at the next redistricting.  Flip the Senate this year, and we draw new Senate boundaries that make those NYC districts solid Democrat. Flip the Senate this year, and everything else is just details.

That’s why the State Senate is THE BIG ONE.

The dedicated New Yorkers at The Albany Project know this, and are going fullfart ahead to make it happen.  It’s almost a guaranteed gimme, and I usually bypass the gimmes to declare something more challenging to be “the big one” (see my choice of NV-02 instead of the easier NV-03 in Nevada, or NM-02 instead of NM-01 in New Mexico, even Linda Ketner in SC-01 over Rob Miller in SC-02, even though both are rockstars). In New York’s case, however, every other close contest in the state takes a backseat to the Senate, because taking the Senate will guarantee eventual wins in all the other races, as well as making New York the single biggest Progressive bastion in America.  What better way to show every other state the good things that can happen for citizens when Democrats are allowed to run the table on governing?

There’s no way I can give you the details on 62 State Senate seats. I’m giving broad but not deep coverage of every state in the union, and I live out in rural Oregon, where those big city politics confuse and frighten us (but we have a great sense of rhythm). I invite you to graze through The Albany project for a look at which State Senate seats are in play and how people be trippin’ when they see what we’re going to do with New York’s government once the grownups are in charge of all three branches.

CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS: With few exceptions, the first 18 are among the safest Dem districts in the nation.

District 1— The eastern end of Long Island. Tim Bishop (D). Safe Dem.

District 2—West Suffolk County. Steve Israel (D) is also safe.

District 3—Nassau County. Peter “King Peter” King (R) v. Graham Long (D). One of two districts in lower New York still held by a Republican, and the one not likely to flip, as Democrats appear to be throwing everything they’ve got into taking a couple of Nassau State Senate districts and saving the Congressional district for later.  They did manage to recruit Long, a former White House aide, which is good, but for the longest time this was the only district in the northeast with no Democrat running and the start may have been too late.

http://grahamlong2008.com/

District 4—South Central Long Island, the part where Republicans like Al D’amato used to rule. Now it’s safe for incumbent Democrat Carolyn McCarthy.

District 5—Great Neck and Queens, on the North Shore. Safe Dem for Gary Ackerman.

District 6—Flushing and Jamaica. An African American district, safe for Democrat Gregory Meeks.

District 7—Parts of Queens and the Bronx. Despite holding Archie Bunker’s neighborhood, the district is safe for Democrat Joe Crowley.

District 8—Hey Babe, take a walk on the West Side! Jerrold Nadler (D) is safe.

District 9— East Brooklyn.  Anthony Weiner (D) is safe.

UPDATE: And by request, I'll mention that, yes, part of Queens is up dere in dat disrict, too.

District 10—Bedford-Stuyvesant. Edolphus Towns (D) is safe in an AA district.

District 11—Central Brooklyn. Another AA-majority district. Safe Dem for Yvette Clark.

District 12—Disjointed Latino neighborhoods of Brooklyn. Nydia Velasquez (D) who spoke at the Demo convention, is safe.

District 13— Other than NJ-03, this Staten Island-based district is maybe the biggest guaranteed pickup in the House of Representatives, due more to the Republicans’ EPIC FAILURE than to our greatness. First, Vino Fossella the incumbent got caught drinking and driving on the way to his baby-mama’s place, and left in disgrace (compared to Diaper Dave Vitter, who goes on and on). Then the Republican possibilities to take over either passed on the opportunity, or died, or made idiots of themselves.

Our nominee is Mike McMahon, a city councillor from Staten Island.  The last two or three elections, people in the know posted on Kos that a Democrat from the Brooklyn part of the district (NY-13 is currently about 60% SI, 40% Brooklyn, including Bensonhurst and Coney Island) could never win, you gotta pick a Staten Islander.  Well, we’ve got our Staten Islander, and by all accounts, he’s a good one. I’m calling this one safe Dem, too, even though it’s open and the last of the Gooper districts in NYC Metro.

http://www.mikemcmahonforcongress.com/...

District 14—The East side. Carolyn Maloney (D). Safe Dem.

District 15—Harlem. Charles Rangel (D) is safe.

District 16—Fort Apache, the Bronx. Jose Serrano (D) has the most solid blue district in America, D+4,865% or thereabouts.

District 17—Parts of the Bronx, Westchester and Rockland (North NYC suburbs). Elliot Engel (D) is safe.

District 18—East Westchester, hugging Connecticut’s 4th district and a possible harbinger of the bluing of that district.  Nita Lowey (D) took the district from a “moderate Republican” in 1990 or thereabouts and hasn’t looked back since. Safe Dem.

REDISTRICTING LOWER NEW YORK:  We have two goals for metro New York: Getting rid of the King Peter district, and making Staten Island blue.

In the first instance, NY is predicted to lose two districts, and there are two districts likely to still be Republican after this election: the 3rd and the upstate 23rd.  Let’s look at the 3rd:

http://www.nationalatlas.com/...

The nice thing is, it’s easily divided.

STEP ONE: If districts are being lost, the 1st and 2nd districts to the east will have to expand into the existing 3rd no matter what.  I would suggest adding those long narrow islands to the south to the 1st district, except for Long Beach, which can be absorbed by the 6th without endangering its AA majority status.  The 1st and 2nd can then absorb between them as much of the south Suffolk strip as possible.

STEP TWO: The bulging part to the North of Route 495 will be absorbed by the existing (Gary Ackerman) 5th district and will be called the new 3rd. It will demographically resemble the old North Shore district that was safe for Democrat Robert Mrazek in the 1980s, but will extend farther into Queens, which is just fine for Democrats.

STEP THREE: The new 4th district will be drawn so as to be 2/3 within Carolyn McCarthy’s existing 4th district and 1/3 within the existing District 3. King Peter’s residence will probably be here, and he will be at a disadvantage re: McCarthy, if indeed he decides to stick it out and not retire or seek and lose the Governor’s mansion.  The Parts of the 3rd should extend as south and east as possible, and should cover any part of the south Long Island shore not already absorbed by the 1st and 2nd.

STEP FOUR: Any remaining bits of the 3rd will be in a strip just south of Rte 495 and not touching the shore. That strip will also include any part of McCarthy’s district not in the new 4th, any part of Ackerman’s old district not in the new 3rd, and the part of the 9th where Rep. Anthony Weiner lives. It will be the new 5th district, and will be safe for Weiner.

Mission accomplished.

Now for Staten Island. The existing 13th (about 60% Staten Island, where the Republicans are, and 40% Brooklyn) is one of the most likely to flip this year due to the most spectacular GOP meltdown of the year, but we’d like to keep it that way.  Look at the solid blue 8th district:

http://www.nationalatlas.com/...

That piece in Brooklyn ain’t nowhere near the west side of Manhattan. It would make the district more contiguous if we removed that part and instead made the Nadler district hugh the Jersey shore and instead take in the west side of SI.  The 13th could then take in more of Brooklyn and be safer for the Democrat.  If needed, the 14th could also trade its chunk of Brooklyn for a chunk of SI.

http://www.nationalatlas.com/...

http://www.nationalatlas.com/...

What do YOU think?

  Previous diaries in this series, including THE BIG ONE for each state:

 Delaware(lower house of the State Legislature): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Arkansas(Obama, for want of any other contest): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Illinois(Dan Seals, IL-10): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Texas, Part One(Michael Skelly, TX-07):  http://www.dailykos.com/...

Texas, Part Two(Rick Noriega, TX-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Utah(building infrastructure): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Massachusetts(Using our majority to govern well): http://www.dailykos.com/...

North Carolina(Kay Hagan, NC-Sen):  http://www.dailykos.com/...

Hawaii(Using our majority to govern well; also, preparation for Governor, possible open Senate race in 2010): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Mississippi(Ronnie Musgrove, MS-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Oregon(Jeff Merkley, OR-Sen):  http://www.dailykos.com/...

Ohio(Tie: Obama, and State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Maryland(Frank Kratovil, MD-01): http://www.dailykos.com/...

North Dakota(State Legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Alabama(Bobby Bright, AL-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...

California, Part one(Charles Brown, CA-04): http://www.dailykos.com/...

California, Part two(Russ Warner, CA-26): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Vermont(Gaye Symington, VT-Gov):  http://www.dailykos.com/...

Iowa(Rob Hubler, IA-05): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Virginia(Obama): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Wyoming(Gary Trauner, WY-AL): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Pennsylvania (State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...

New Mexico(Harry Teague, NM-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Kentucky(Bruce Lunsford, KY-SEN): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Nebraska(Scott Kleeb, NB-SEN): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Friggin’ IDAHO (Larry LaRocco, ID-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Maine (CHEERS to Tom Allen, ME-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Wisconsin (State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...

New Jersey(Linda Stender, NJ-07): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Oklahoma (Andrew Rice, OK-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...

South Dakota(State Legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Colorado(Obama): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Georgia(Jim Martin, GA-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Rhode Island(governing well): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Michigan(State legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Alaska(Mark Begich, AK-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Missouri (Jay Nixon, MO-Gov): http://www.dailykos.com/...

West Virginia (GORGEOUS Anne Barth, WV-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...

South Carolina (Linda Ketner, SC-01, Rob Miller, SC-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Nevada (Jill Derby, NV-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Extended (Optional)

Originally posted to AdmiralNaismith on Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 07:57 AM PDT.

Poll

Best thing about New York

9%4 votes
11%5 votes
4%2 votes
7%3 votes
4%2 votes
11%5 votes
7%3 votes
2%1 votes
2%1 votes
2%1 votes
26%11 votes
0%0 votes
2%1 votes
4%2 votes
2%1 votes

| 42 votes | Vote | Results

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