OK

This is only a Preview!

You must Publish this diary to make this visible to the public,
or click 'Edit Diary' to make further changes first.

Posting a Diary Entry

Daily Kos welcomes blog articles from readers, known as diaries. The Intro section to a diary should be about three paragraphs long, and is required. The body section is optional, as is the poll, which can have 1 to 15 choices. Descriptive tags are also required to help others find your diary by subject; please don't use "cute" tags.

When you're ready, scroll down below the tags and click Save & Preview. You can edit your diary after it's published by clicking Edit Diary. Polls cannot be edited once they are published.

If this is your first time creating a Diary since the Ajax upgrade, before you enter any text below, please press Ctrl-F5 and then hold down the Shift Key and press your browser's Reload button to refresh its cache with the new script files.

ATTENTION: READ THE RULES.

  1. One diary daily maximum.
  2. Substantive diaries only. If you don't have at least three solid, original paragraphs, you should probably post a comment in an Open Thread.
  3. No repetitive diaries. Take a moment to ensure your topic hasn't been blogged (you can search for Stories and Diaries that already cover this topic), though fresh original analysis is always welcome.
  4. Use the "Body" textbox if your diary entry is longer than three paragraphs.
  5. Any images in your posts must be hosted by an approved image hosting service (one of: imageshack.us, photobucket.com, flickr.com, smugmug.com, allyoucanupload.com, picturetrail.com, mac.com, webshots.com, editgrid.com).
  6. Copying and pasting entire copyrighted works is prohibited. If you do quote something, keep it brief, always provide a link to the original source, and use the <blockquote> tags to clearly identify the quoted material. Violating this rule is grounds for immediate banning.
  7. Be civil. Do not "call out" other users by name in diary titles. Do not use profanity in diary titles. Don't write diaries whose main purpose is to deliberately inflame.
For the complete list of DailyKos diary guidelines, please click here.

Please begin with an informative title:

Yesterday I did a diary trying to get a bead on early voting in Colorado but it was more anecdotal, e.g. gaging the response at the Fort Collins rally. So I did a more quantitative approach today.

So, I did the following:

1. Took the official party ID tallies for mail in ballots and early voting as of 8:30 pm. 10/23/2008
2. Used Rasmussen's latest Republican ID of 94% McCain, 6% Obama
3. Used Rasmussen's latest Democratic ID of 2% McCain, 95% Obama
4. Used Rasmussen's latest Independent ID of 39% McCain, 53% Obama
5. Divided by early votes + total received mail-in ballots
6. Divided by early votes + total requested mail-in ballots

Results after the fold:

Update: Fixed number of active registered voters.

Intro

You must enter an Intro for your Diary Entry between 300 and 1150 characters long (that's approximately 50-175 words without any html or formatting markup).

For received + early ballots:

Obama: 51%
McCain: 45%

For requested + early ballots:

Obama: 55%
McCain: 44%

Applying my previous analysis only to early voting gets you:

Obama 54%
McCain 42%

Absolute estimated numbers:

Obama early voting: 46,367
McCain early voting: 35,650

Obama received mail-in ballots: 243,840
McCain received mail-in ballots: 221,645

Obama requested mail-in ballots: 880,139
McCain requested mail-in ballots: 704,860

Total number of active registered voters: 3,204,092 2,602,815

FYI the Excel spread sheet I did my analysis from is here:
http://www.elections.colorado.gov/...

Colorado Secretary of State's page:
http://www.elections.colorado.gov/...

Hey Colorado, mail in your freakin' ballots!!!

Extended (Optional)

Originally posted to rblinne on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 07:15 AM PDT.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.