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Please begin with an informative title:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 12/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Bond (R) 47
Carnahan (D) 43
This bit of info should be particularly alarming to Republicans:
Approve 49
Disapprove 43
No Opinion 8

Approve 48
Disapprove 26
No Opinion 26

Robin, of course, is a member of one of the top political families in Missouri. Her father, Mel, was governor, and defeated Sen. John Ashcroft at the polls in 2000 three weeks after dying on a plane crash. Jean Carnahan, Robin's mother, took over the seat for two years, before being defeated at the poll in a 2002 special election by Jim Talent. (Talent was defeated in 2006 by Claire McCaskill.)

Robin is currently secretary of state. Her performance in office and family name have added up to a potent political package, and given the large number of people who still have no opinion about her (mostly people who don't know she exists), she has a great deal of upside. Watch for the GOP to spend the next year trying to knock her down a peg or two in preparation for what will be another top-tier battle in the Show Me state. As for Carnahan, watch her to spend a great deal of time in these areas between Kansas City and St. Louis shoring up her numbers in rural Missouri. Compare the following maps:

Missouri Senate race, 2006: McCaskill (D) vs Talent (R):

Missouri Senate race, 2002: Talent (R) vs Carnahan (D):

The name of the game will be to make all that Red in the middle of the state just a little less red. Given the results of this poll, Robin Carnahan is in great position to do just that. Full crosstabs below the fold.


You must enter an Intro for your Diary Entry between 300 and 1150 characters long (that's approximately 50-175 words without any html or formatting markup).


The Research 2000 Missouri Poll was conducted from December 2 through December 4, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


Men                  288 (48%)
Women                312 (52%)

Democrats            234 (39%)
Republicans          221 (37%)
Independents         145 (24%)

White                498 (83%)
Black                 84 (14%)
Other                 18 (3%)

18-29                108 (18%)
30-44                192 (32%)
45-59                198 (33%)
60+                  102 (17%)

St. Louis City 48 interviews
St. Louis Suburbs 191 interviews
Kansas City 121 interviews
North/Southeast 132 interviews
Southwest 108 interviews

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Christopher "Kit" Bond? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 12%         37%         32%         11%          8%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 49%         43%          8%

MEN                 52%         41%          7%
WOMEN               46%         45%          9%

DEMOCRATS           25%         68%          7%
REPUBLICANS         77%         17%          6%
INDEPENDENTS        45%         43%         12%

18-29               44%         48%          8%
30-44               49%         44%          7%
45-59               51%         41%          8%
60+                 52%         40%          8%

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Robin Carnahan? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 13%         35%         19%          7%         26%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 48%         26%         26%

MEN                 45%         30%         25%
WOMEN               51%         22%         27%

DEMOCRATS           69%         11%         20%
REPUBLICANS         28%         44%         28%
INDEPENDENTS        46%         23%         31%

18-29               53%         23%         24%
30-44               49%         25%         26%
45-59               46%         27%         27%
60+                 45%         29%         26%

                   BOND        CARNAHAN    UNDECIDED  

ALL                 47%         43%         10%

MEN                 51%         41%          8%
WOMEN               43%         45%         12%

DEMOCRATS           13%         78%          9%
REPUBLICANS         85%          7%          8%
INDEPENDENTS        45%         42%         13%

WHITE               55%         36%          9%
BLACK                7%         76%         17%
OTHER                9%         74%         17%

18-29               43%         48%          9%
30-44               46%         44%         10%
45-59               48%         41%         11%
60+                 50%         41%          9%

ST. LOUIS CITY       9%         84%          7%
ST. LOUIS SUB       48%         43%          9%
KANSAS CITY         49%         43%          8%
NORTH/SE            51%         38%         11%
SOUTHWEST           55%         33%         12%

Extended (Optional)

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Dec 09, 2008 at 08:30 AM PST.

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