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Please begin with an informative title:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 12/8-10. Likely voters. MoE 4% for general election matchups, 5% for primary matchups (No trend lines)

Republican Primary

Specter (R) 43
Toomey (R) 28
Undecided 29

Toomey is itching to go after Specter again after falling just short in 2004, and Specter is already well under the magical 50 percent mark.

A Club for Growth poll in January 2004 gave Specter a 51-28 advantage, down to 47-39 days before the election. A mid-February 2004 poll by Frankly & Marshall College for the Philadelphia Daily News and CN8 gave Specter a 55-17 lead, which was whittled down to 46-40 a week before the election. And back in late March 2004, the first Quinnipiac University poll of the race, about four weeks before the April 27 primary, gave Specter a healthy 52-37 advantage, which was whittled down to 48-42 three days before the election.

So all of these polls gave Specter the early 50+ percent numbers, and saw it narrow to a single-digit race, but none expected such a close 50.9-49.1 results. That's the power of a motivated base, and I suspect they'll be even more motivated in 2010 with all this "get back to our roots" crap, coupled with the inevitable Specter votes for at least part of Obama's agenda.

Indeed, it's quite the conundrum -- Pennsylvania is trending heavily Democratic. This supposed "battleground", in which McCain and Palin camped out in the last few weeks of the race, went to Obama by a comfortable 11 points. If Specter votes with his state and supports Obama on key legislation, it'll be a boon for Toomey. If Specter plays to his base by obstructing the Obama agenda, then he becomes mulch in the general election. This is why Specter is suddenly grandstanding on Obama's pick for Attorney General, Eric Holder. He clearly hopes to earn some kudos from his Right flank by talking tough and threatening obstruction.

On the Democratic side, it's way too early to read into these numbers. The Democrats either sport low name IDs, or are Matthews (who despite being well known, isn't lighting any fires).

Democratic Primary

Matthews (D) 24
Murphy (D) 19
Schwartz (D) 15
Undecided 42

Matthews (D) 28
Murphy (D) 21
Undecided 51

Matthews (D) 30
Schwartz (D) 18
Undecided 52

Murphy (D) 23
Schwartz (D) 20
Undecided 57

In the general election matchups, Toomey would go nowhere fast, while Specter is once again hovering under the 50 percent mark. But of the Democrats, only Matthews (with his high name ID) is currently within single digits of Specter. This will obviously change as the eventual Democratic nominee becomes better known, and as Specter is forced to play footsie with conservatives to shore up his Right flank.
General Election Matchups

Specter (R) 45
Matthews (D) 44

Specter (R) 48
Murphy (D) 36

Specter (R) 49
Schwartz (D) 35

Toomey (R) 35
Matthews (D) 46

Toomey (R) 36
Murphy (D) 44

Toomey (R) 36
Schwartz (D) 42

Full cross-tabs below the fold.
Intro

You must enter an Intro for your Diary Entry between 300 and 1150 characters long (that's approximately 50-175 words without any html or formatting markup).

PENNSYLVANIA RESULTS – DECEMBER 2008  

The Research 2000 Pennsylvania Poll was conducted from December 8 through December 10, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

NOTE: There was an over sample conducted among Democratic and Republican primary voters totaling 400. The margin of error is 5% for both.


SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  289 (48%)
Women                311 (52%)

Democrats            294 (49%)
Republicans          234 (39%)
Independents          72 (12%)

White                486 (81%)
Black                 83 (14%)
Other                 31 (5%)

18-29                102 (17%)
30-44                168 (28%)
45-59                204 (34%)
60+                  126 (21%)

Philadelphia City     78 (13%)
Philadelphia Suburbs 126 (21%)
Pittsburgh           144 (24%)
Rest of State        252 (42%)

Democratic Primary Voters

Men                  176 (44%)
Women                224 (56%)

White                324 (81%)
Black                 56 (14%)
Other                 20 (5%)

Republican Primary Voters

Men                  216 (54%)
Women                184 (46%)


QUESTION: If the 2010 Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate were held today which of the following would you vote for? (ROTATED):

                   ALL         MEN         WOMEN       WHITE       BLACK       OTHER

MATTHEWS            24%         21%         27%         26%         17%         11%
MURPHY              19%         23%         16%         21%         11%         12%
SCHWARTZ            15%         10%         19%         17%          8%          7%
UNDECIDED           42%         46%         38%         36%         64%         70%


QUESTION: If the 2010 Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Chris Matthews and Patrick Murphy? (ROTATED):
                   ALL         MEN         WOMEN       WHITE       BLACK       OTHER

MATTHEWS            28%         24%         31%         30%         21%         16%
MURPHY              21%         25%         18%         23%         12%         14%
UNDECIDED           51%         51%         51%         47%         67%         70%


QUESTION: If the 2010 Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Chris Matthews and Allyson Schwartz?

                   ALL         MEN         WOMEN       WHITE       BLACK       OTHER

MATTHEWS            30%         26%         33%         32%         24%         17%
SCHWARTZ            18%         11%         24%         20%         11%         12%
UNDECIDED           52%         63%         43%         48%         65%         71%


QUESTION: If the 2010 Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Patrick Murphy and Allyson Schwartz?

                   ALL         MEN         WOMEN       WHITE       BLACK       OTHER

MURPHY              23%         27%         20%         25%         12%         14%
SCHWARTZ            20%         12%         26%         22%         12%         11%
UNDECIDED           57%         61%         54%         53%         76%         75%


QUESTION: If the 2010 Republican Primary for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Arlen Specter and Pat Toomey?

                   ALL         MEN         WOMEN

SPECTER             43%         40%         47%
TOOMEY              28%         32%         23%
UNDECIDED           29%         28%         30%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Chris Matthews the Democrat and Arlen Specter
the Republican?

                   SPECTER     MATTHEWS    UNDECIDED

ALL                 45%         44%         11%

MEN                 49%         42%          9%
WOMEN               41%         46%         13%

DEMOCRATS           16%         76%          8%
REPUBLICANS         81%          5%         14%
INDEPENDENTS        48%         41%         11%

WHITE               54%         39%          7%
BLACK                7%         68%         25%
OTHER               11%         63%         26%

18-29               36%         55%          9%
30-44               47%         40%         13%
45-59               43%         47%         10%
60+                 52%         37%         11%

PHILLY CITY         23%         64%         13%
PHILLY SUBURBS      44%         45%         11%
PITTSBURGH          46%         42%         12%
REST OF STATE       52%         39%          9%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Patrick Murphy the Democrat and Arlen Specter
the Republican?

                   SPECTER     MURPHY      UNDECIDED

ALL                 48%         36%         16%

MEN                 52%         35%         13%
WOMEN               44%         37%         19%

DEMOCRATS           18%         61%         21%
REPUBLICANS         85%          5%         10%
INDEPENDENTS        51%         35%         14%

WHITE               58%         30%         12%
BLACK                6%         62%         32%
OTHER               12%         60%         28%

18-29               38%         47%         15%
30-44               51%         31%         18%
45-59               47%         39%         14%
60+                 56%         30%         14%

PHILLY CITY         24%         59%         17%
PHILLY SUBURBS      48%         37%         15%
PITTSBURGH          50%         34%         16%
REST OF STATE       55%         30%         15%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Allyson Schwartz the Democrat and Arlen Specter
the Republican?

                   SPECTER     SCHWARTZ    UNDECIDED

ALL                 49%         35%         16%

MEN                 53%         34%         13%
WOMEN               45%         36%         19%

DEMOCRATS           18%         60%         22%
REPUBLICANS         87%          5%          8%
INDEPENDENTS        53%         33%         14%

WHITE               59%         29%         12%
BLACK                6%         61%         33%
OTHER               11%         60%         29%

18-29               38%         46%         16%
30-44               52%         30%         18%
45-59               48%         38%         14%
60+                 57%         29%         14%

PHILLY CITY         24%         57%         19%
PHILLY SUBURBS      49%         35%         16%
PITTSBURGH          51%         33%         16%
REST OF STATE       56%         30%         14%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Chris Matthews the Democrat and Pat Toomey
the Republican?

                   MATTHEWS    TOOMEY      UNDECIDED

ALL                 46%         35%         19%

MEN                 43%         39%         18%
WOMEN               49%         31%         20%

DEMOCRATS           79%          5%         16%
REPUBLICANS          6%         73%         21%
INDEPENDENTS        43%         36%         21%

WHITE               40%         42%         18%
BLACK               71%          4%         25%
OTHER               69%          8%         23%

18-29               56%         23%         21%
30-44               41%         38%         21%
45-59               50%         33%         17%
60+                 38%         45%         17%

PHILLY CITY         66%         11%         23%
PHILLY SUBURBS      49%         31%         20%
PITTSBURGH          44%         31%         25%
REST OF STATE       40%         47%         13%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Patrick Murphy the Democrat and Pat Toomey
the Republican?

                   MURPHY      TOOMEY      UNDECIDED  

ALL                 44%         36%         20%

MEN                 41%         40%         19%
WOMEN               47%         32%         21%

DEMOCRATS           76%          5%         19%
REPUBLICANS          5%         75%         20%
INDEPENDENTS        41%         37%         22%

WHITE               38%         43%         19%
BLACK               70%          4%         26%
OTHER               67%          8%         25%

18-29               55%         22%         23%
30-44               39%         39%         22%
45-59               48%         34%         18%
60+                 36%         47%         17%

PHILLY CITY         65%         11%         24%
PHILLY SUBURBS      46%         32%         22%
PITTSBURGH          42%         33%         25%
REST OF STATE       38%         48%         14%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Allyson Schwartz the Democrat and Pat Toomey
the Republican?

                   SCHWARTZ    TOOMEY      UNDECIDED  

ALL                 42%         36%         22%

MEN                 39%         40%         21%
WOMEN               45%         32%         23%

DEMOCRATS           72%          5%         23%
REPUBLICANS          5%         75%         20%
INDEPENDENTS        39%         37%         24%

WHITE               36%         43%         21%
BLACK               69%          4%         27%
OTHER               66%          7%         27%

18-29               54%         21%         25%
30-44               37%         39%         24%
45-59               46%         34%         20%
60+                 35%         48%         17%

PHILLY CITY         63%         10%         27%
PHILLY SUBURBS      45%         32%         23%
PITTSBURGH          40%         33%         27%
REST OF STATE       36%         48%         16%

Extended (Optional)

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Fri Dec 12, 2008 at 08:45 AM PST.

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