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Please begin with an informative title:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 1/12-14. Likely voters. MoE 4% overall, 5% for Democratic oversample (No trend lines)

Approval/Disapproval/No opinion

Cuomo (D) 53/26/21
Kennedy (D) 58/32/9
Israel (D) 17/6/77

King (R) 39/41/20
Giuliani (R) 38/56/6

Democratic head-to-heads

Kennedy 31
Cuomo 26
Israel 2
Undecided 41

Unlike polling from Quinnipiac and PPP (PDF), this R2K edition shows both Cuomo's (+27) and Kennedy's (+26) net favorability to be nearly identical. And since we don't have any trendlines, we can't confirm or contradict the notion that Kennedy has been losing support. What we can confirm from the other polls is that no one candidate is getting a majority of Democratic support. In fact, most remain on the sideline despite two huge legacy names, which would argue for the caretaker appointment, so that the voters can make the final call in two years. But alas, the notion of giving this vote to the voters ultimately is apparently offensive to many. Indeed, in a somewhat related question of whether the seat should be filled by appointment or special election, the results:
QUESTION: Generally speaking do you think the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Hillary Clinton should be appointed by the Governor or should there be a special election to fill the seat?

Appointed 46
Elected 33

Sigh...

Moving on, we added Rep. Steve Israel into this poll as the random unknown dark horse, to get a sense for what a generic Democrat would do against the GOP's top candidates. Bottom line? "Generic Unknown Democrat" still beats the best the GOP can dish. And while the two legacies -- Cuomo and Kennedy -- are riding their name ID to big, easy victories over the GOP's best, neither candidate does markedly better than the other.

Cuomo (D) 45
King (R) 32

Cuomo (D) 48
Giuliani (R) 33


Kennedy (D) 47
King (R) 31

Kennedy (D) 49
Giuliani (R) 32


Israel (D) 34
King (R) 31

Israel (D) 35
Giuliani (R) 32

In other numbers, respondents generally believe all the tested candidates are qualified to be senator. Well, except for Israel who no one knows.

So the polling on this question has sort of been all over the place. Not that it matters, since it's an election of one. This drama should come to a close shortly, as it's finally time for Gov. Paterson to make his call.

Bonus finding: Check out how little New Yorkers and NYC like Rudy Giuliani. His approval/disapproval of 38/56 is by far the worst of all the names tested. And in the head-to-heads, he gets crushed in NYC, by far delivering the worst performance of any candidate in any of the state's regions.

Update: And now a Marist poll backs up Q-poll and PPP, with Cuomo getting 40 percent support form ALL New York registered voters, compared to 25 percent for Caroline Kennedy. That's the big difference here -- we polled only Democrats on the question of which Democrat should get appointed. Marist did all voters (which includes independents and Republicans), as did PPP and Q.

Intro

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NEW YORK RESULTS – JANUARY 2009  

The Research 2000 New York Poll was conducted from January 12 through January 14, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

NOTE: There was an over sample conducted among Democratic primary voters totaling 400. The margin of error is 5%.


SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  287 (48%)
Women                313 (52%)

Democrats            324 (54%)
Republicans          168 (28%)
Independents         108 (18%)

White                396 (66%)
Black                 96 (16%)
Hispanic              72 (12%)
Other                 36 (6%)

18-29                121 (20%)
30-44                174 (29%)
45-59                198 (33%)
60+                  107 (18%)

NY City              252 (42%)
NY City Suburbs      144 (24%)
Upstate              204 (34%)

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VORERS ONLY

Men                  184 (46%)
Women                216 (54%)

White                228 (57%)
Black                 84 (21%)
Hispanic              56 (14%)
Other                 32 (8%)


DEMOCRATIC VOTERS ONLY


QUESTION: If the 2010 Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate were held today which of the following would you vote for? (ROTATED):

                    ALL      MEN      WOMEN    W        B        H        O

Caroline Kennedy     31%     28%      34%      27%      41%      33%      35%
Andrew Cuomo         26%     30%      22%      25%      26%      31%      27%
Steve Israel          2%      2%       2%       3%      -        -         1%
Undecided (NOT READ) 41%     40%      42%      45%      33%      36%      37%


ALL VOTERS


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Caroline Kennedy? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 19%         39%         17%         15%         10%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 58%         32%         10%

MEN                 55%         36%          9%
WOMEN               61%         28%         11%

DEMOCRATS           76%         17%          7%
REPUBLICANS         23%         63%         14%
INDEPENDENTS        59%         30%         11%

18-29               62%         28%         10%
30-44               60%         31%          9%
45-59               57%         33%         10%
60+                 54%         35%         11%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Andrew Cuomo? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 17%         36%         14%         12%         21%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 53%         26%         21%

MEN                 50%         30%         20%
WOMEN               56%         22%         22%

DEMOCRATS           71%         13%         16%
REPUBLICANS         21%         55%         24%
INDEPENDENTS        49%         20%         31%

18-29               57%         23%         20%
30-44               55%         26%         19%
45-59               52%         27%         21%
60+                 49%         29%         22%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Steve Israel? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                  5%         12%          4%          2%         77%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 17%          6%         77%

MEN                 16%          9%         75%
WOMEN               18%          3%         79%

DEMOCRATS           25%          3%         72%
REPUBLICANS          6%         14%         80%
INDEPENDENTS        11%          4%         85%

18-29               19%          3%         78%
30-44               18%          5%         77%
45-59               16%          7%         77%
60+                 16%          8%         76%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Peter King? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 13%         26%         27%         14%         20%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 39%         41%         20%

MEN                 43%         39%         18%
WOMEN               35%         43%         22%

DEMOCRATS           22%         54%         24%
REPUBLICANS         74%         17%          9%
INDEPENDENTS        36%         41%         23%

18-29               34%         46%         20%
30-44               38%         42%         20%
45-59               41%         39%         20%
60+                 44%         37%         19%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rudy Giuliani? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 11%         27%         28%         28%          6%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 38%         56%          6%

MEN                 43%         52%          5%
WOMEN               33%         60%          7%

DEMOCRATS           19%         75%          6%
REPUBLICANS         75%         18%          7%
INDEPENDENTS        37%         57%          6%

18-29               34%         60%          6%
30-44               37%         57%          6%
45-59               40%         55%          5%
60+                 42%         52%          6%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Caroline Kennedy the Democrat and Peter King
the Republican?

                   KENNEDY     KING        UNDECIDED  

ALL                 47%         31%         22%

MEN                 43%         37%         20%
WOMEN               51%         25%         24%

DEMOCRATS           70%          8%         22%
REPUBLICANS          7%         76%         17%
INDEPENDENTS        42%         30%         28%

WHITE               41%         43%         16%
BLACK               62%          3%         35%
HISPANIC            57%         14%         29%
OTHER               59%         10%         31%

18-29               51%         26%         23%
30-44               49%         29%         22%
45-59               45%         33%         22%
60+                 44%         36%         20%

NY CITY             56%         24%         20%
NY CITY SUB         39%         38%         23%
UPSTATE             42%         35%         23%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Caroline Kennedy the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani
the Republican?

                   KENNEDY     GIULIANI    UNDECIDED  

ALL                 49%         32%         19%

MEN                 45%         38%         17%
WOMEN               53%         26%         21%

DEMOCRATS           72%         10%         18%
REPUBLICANS          7%         76%         17%
INDEPENDENTS        45%         30%         25%

WHITE               42%         44%         14%
BLACK               64%          3%         33%
HISPANIC            58%         14%         28%
OTHER               61%         10%         29%

18-29               56%         26%         18%
30-44               51%         30%         19%
45-59               47%         34%         19%
60+                 44%         37%         19%

NY CITY             62%         23%         15%
NY CITY SUB         38%         41%         21%
UPSTATE             40%         37%         23%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Peter King
the Republican?

                   CUOMO       KING        UNDECIDED  

ALL                 45%         32%         23%

MEN                 41%         38%         21%
WOMEN               49%         26%         25%

DEMOCRATS           67%          7%         26%
REPUBLICANS          6%         79%         15%
INDEPENDENTS        39%         32%         29%

WHITE               39%         44%         17%
BLACK               60%          3%         37%
HISPANIC            55%         14%         31%
OTHER               56%         10%         34%

18-29               50%         26%         24%
30-44               47%         30%         23%
45-59               43%         34%         23%
60+                 42%         38%         20%

NY CITY             54%         25%         21%
NY CITY SUB         37%         39%         24%
UPSTATE             40%         36%         24%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani
the Republican?

                   CUOMO       GIULIANI    UNDECIDED  

ALL                 48%         33%         19%

MEN                 44%         39%         17%
WOMEN               52%         27%         21%

DEMOCRATS           72%         10%         18%
REPUBLICANS          6%         78%         16%
INDEPENDENTS        43%         32%         25%

WHITE               42%         45%         13%
BLACK               63%          3%         34%
HISPANIC            56%         16%         28%
OTHER               60%         11%         29%

18-29               54%         25%         21%
30-44               50%         31%         19%
45-59               46%         35%         19%
60+                 42%         41%         17%

NY CITY             61%         22%         17%
NY CITY SUB         37%         44%         19%
UPSTATE             39%         39%         22%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Steve Israel the Democrat and Peter King
the Republican?

                   ISRAEL      KING        UNDECIDED  

ALL                 34%         31%         35%

MEN                 30%         37%         33%
WOMEN               38%         25%         37%

DEMOCRATS           52%          7%         41%
REPUBLICANS          4%         76%         20%
INDEPENDENTS        27%         31%         42%

WHITE               28%         43%         29%
BLACK               48%          3%         49%
HISPANIC            42%         13%         45%
OTHER               46%          9%         45%

18-29               38%         24%         38%
30-44               34%         29%         37%
45-59               33%         33%         34%
60+                 31%         37%         32%

NY CITY             43%         24%         33%
NY CITY SUB         26%         38%         36%
UPSTATE             29%         35%         36%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Steve Israel the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani
the Republican?

                   ISRAEL      GIULIANI    UNDECIDED  

ALL                 35%         32%         33%

MEN                 31%         38%         31%
WOMEN               39%         26%         35%

DEMOCRATS           54%          7%         39%
REPUBLICANS          4%         79%         17%
INDEPENDENTS        27%         33%         40%

WHITE               29%         44%         27%
BLACK               49%          3%         48%
HISPANIC            42%         14%         44%
OTHER               47%         10%         43%

18-29               40%         24%         36%
30-44               35%         30%         35%
45-59               34%         34%         32%
60+                 31%         39%         30%

NY CITY             44%         24%         32%
NY CITY SUB         26%         40%         34%
UPSTATE             30%         36%         34%


QUESTION: Do you think Caroline Kennedy is qualified to be a U.S Senator?

                   YES         NO          NOT SURE        

ALL                 43%         35%         22%

DEMOCRATS           62%         19%         19%
REPUBLICANS          8%         65%         27%
INDEPENDENTS        41%         36%         23%


QUESTION: Do you think Andrew Cuomo is qualified to be a U.S Senator?

                   YES         NO          NOT SURE        

ALL                 42%         36%         22%

DEMOCRATS           61%         19%         20%
REPUBLICANS          7%         68%         25%
INDEPENDENTS        39%         37%         24%


QUESTION: Do you think Steve Israel is qualified to be a U.S Senator?

                   YES         NO          NOT SURE        

ALL                 15%          4%         81%

DEMOCRATS           22%          2%         76%
REPUBLICANS          4%          8%         88%
INDEPENDENTS        11%          4%         85%


QUESTION: Do you think Peter King is qualified to be a U.S Senator?

                   YES         NO          NOT SURE        

ALL                 42%         34%         24%

DEMOCRATS           23%         44%         33%
REPUBLICANS         79%         15%          6%
INDEPENDENTS        40%         33%         27%


QUESTION: Do you think Rudy Giuliani is qualified to be a U.S Senator?

                   YES         NO          NOT SURE        

ALL                 46%         29%         25%

DEMOCRATS           27%         39%         34%
REPUBLICANS         83%         11%          6%
INDEPENDENTS        45%         28%         27%


QUESTION: Generally speaking do you think the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Hillary Clinton should be appointed by the Governor or should there be a special election to fill the seat?

                   APPOINTED   ELECTION    NOT SURE        

ALL                 46%         33%         21%

DEMOCRATS           62%         20%         18%
REPUBLICANS         17%         56%         27%
INDEPENDENTS        44%         35%         21%

Extended (Optional)

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Jan 15, 2009 at 10:59 AM PST.

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