Today we go again until Florida. Another option what can make better this serie can be think in a race in Florida with C Crist and without B Graham.
Until now, we don't know if C Crist will run or not, but his last movement was for let him included in the list of possible candidates, and that make stop all other decent possible republican candidates. That make i think the chance of C Crist run for senate is so high.
Republicans are trying recruit C Crist for the race for senate because they need. M Martínez, current senator and former member of G W Bush cabinets retires cause the polls for him was very bad.
The first diary included in this serie about senate was make before this last step of C Crist for let him near the race, and was make for gubernatorial race, but the results are interesting for senate race if C Crist finally run. I think if he run this race will be very difficult for democratic candidate. This is the link:
FL-Sen *: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? af 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
I include in the poll veteran former governor and senator B Graham because he appear in first polls for this race with the best results in the state against incumbent M Martínez (51% B Graham - 31% M Martínez), and because we see here he can be one of famous democrats who can help better to democrats for have better results in a race in his home state. This link let see that:
But seems B Graham can continue retired, and if he not run, we must think in more possible democratic candidates.
I remember the list of possible candidates:
1. Donna Edna Shalala: OH WI FL 1941 Secretary of HHS 93-01.
2. Daniel Robert Graham (): FL 1936 Senator from Florida 87-05. Governor of Florida 79-87. Lost for President 04.
3. Robert Wexler: NY FL 1961 USHRep 97- .
4. Kendrick Brett Meek: FL 1966 USHRep 03- .
5. Debbie Wasserman Schultz: NY FL 1966 USHRep 05- .
6. Katherine Anne Castor: FL 1966 USHRep 07- .
7. Corrine Brown: FL 1946 USHRep 93- .
8. F Allen Boyd: GA FL 1945 USHRep 97- .
9. Ronald Klein: OH FL 1957 USHRep 07- .
10. Alan Mark Grayson: NY FL 1958 USHRep 09- .
11. Suzanne M Kosmas: DC FL 1944 USHRep 09- .
12. Daniel A Mica: NY FL 1944 USHRep 79-89.
13. Lawrence Jack Smith: NY FL 1941 USHRep 83-93.
14. Peter R Deutsch: NY FL 1957 USHRep 93-05. Lost for Senate 04.
15. Karen L Thurman: SD FL 1951 USHRep 93-03. Lost for House 02.
16. James Oscar Davis III: FL 1957 USHRep 97-07. Lost for Governor 06.
17. James Bacchus: TN FL 1949 USHRep 91-95.
18. Timothy Edward Mahoney: IL FL 1956 USHRep 07-09.
19. Adelaide "Alex" Sink: NC FL 1952 FL Chief Financial Officer 07- .
20. Pam Iorio: ME FL 1959 Mayor of Tampa 03- .
21. Kevin Burn: FL 19?? Mayor of North Miami 05- .
22. Dan Gelber: FL 1960
23. Rod Smith: MO FL 1949 Lost for Governor 06.
(): Habitually candidates of this age are not included in the list.
From this list Rep. Kendrick Meek, Kevin Burn and Dan Gelber are running, and Ron Klein, Pam Iorio and Rod Smith think in run.
R Wexler, D Wasserman Schultz, A Boyd and A Sink tell will not run.
In this list they are some young names and that is possitive for next years.
In a 0-10 scale, like this:
--- 00,000 ---
--- 01,429 ---
--- 02,857 ---
--- 04,286 ---
--- 05,714 ---
--- 07,142 ---
--- 08,571 ---
--- 10,000 ---
For see about senate races with the strongest democratic incumbents:
HI-Sen: Incumbent D Inouye (D-1924) win in 2004 76%. Biggest danger (low): L Lingle (R-1953).
NY-Sen: Incumbent C Schumer (D-1950) win in 2004 71%. Without danger.
VT-Sen: Incumbent P Leahy (D-1940) win in 2004 71%. Biggest danger (low): J Douglas (R-1951).
MD-Sen: Incumbent B Mikulski (D-1936) win in 2004 65%. Without danger.
OR-Sen: Incumbent R Wyden (D-1949) win in 2004 63%. Without danger.
WI-Sen: Incumbent R Feingold (D-1953) win in 2004 55%. Without danger.
WA-Sen: Incumbent P Murray (D-1950) win in 2004 55%. Without danger.
AR-Sen: Incumbent B Lincoln (D-1960) win in 2004 56%. Biggest danger (low): M Huckabee (R-1955).
IN-Sen: Incumbent E Bayh (D-1955) win in 2004 62%. Biggest danger (low): M Daniels (R-1949).
CA-Sen: A Schwarzenegger (R-1947) vs B Boxer (D-1940) ? after 25 votes = 08,600 Safe Dem
IL-Sen: open R vs open D ? after 24 votes = 08,264 => Likely Democratic
CT-Sen: open R vs C Dodd (D-1944) ? after 32 votes = 08,073 => Likely Democratic
NY-Sen: G Pataki (R-1945) vs K Gillibrand (D-1966) ? after 66 votes = 07,854 => Likely Democr
DE-Sen: M Castle (R-1939) vs B Biden (D-1969) ? after 34 votes = 07,843 => Likely Democratic
OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs T Strickland (D-1941) ? af 13 votes = 07,436 => Likely Democr
PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs E Rendell (D-1944) ? af 61 votes = 07,350 => Likely Democratic
ND-Sen: J Hoeven (R-1957) vs B Dorgan (D-1942) ? after 14 votes = 07,262 => Likely Democr
NV-Sen: K Guinn (R-1936) vs H Reid (D-1939) ? after 45 votes = 07,222 => Likely Democratic
2 CT-Sen: J Rell (R-1946) vs C Dodd (D-1944) ? after 33 votes = 06,869 => Leans Democratic
MO-Sen: open R vs R Carnahan (D-1961) ? after 11 votes = 06,818 => Leans Democratic
CO-Sen: W Owens (R-1950) vs M Bennet (D-1964) ? after 31 votes = 06,344 => Leans Democr
2 OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs ? after 23 votes = 06,304 => Leans Democratic
KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs S Beshear (D-1944) ? af 20 votes = 05,917 => Leans Democrat
NH-Sen: J Sununu (R-1964) vs P Hodes (D-1951) ? after 10 votes = 05,667 => Toss-Up
2 KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs ? after 36 votes = 05,602 => Toss-Up
LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs J Breaux (D-1944) ? after 36 votes = 05,463 => Toss-Up
NC-Sen: R Burr (R-1955) vs ? after 40 votes = 05,375 => Toss-Up
2 PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs ? after 33 votes = 05,101 => Toss-Up
2 LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs M Landrieu (D-1960) ? after 40 votes = 04,875 => Toss-Up
OK-Sen: T Coburn (R-1948) vs B Henry (D-1963) ? after 56 votes = 03,661 => Leans Republican
FL-Sen : C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? af 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs C Culver (D-1966) ? aft 25 votes = 03,400 => Leans Republican
2 FL-Sen: C Crist (R-1956) vs ? after 28 votes = 02,857 => Likely Republican
AZ-Sen: J McCain (R-1936) vs ? after 48 votes = 02,396 => Likely Republican
KS-Sen: open R vs M Parkinson (D-1957) ? after 17 votes = 01,176 => Safe Republican
: The diary for Florida is for gubernatorial race, but can be interesting include here the link to the poll because C Christ let open the door, and can run for senate in 2010.
And for see about other difficult races for democratics like:
AK-Sen: Incumbent L Murkovski (R-1957) win in 2004 with 49%.
SD-Sen: Incumbent J Thune (R-1961) win in 2004 with 51%.
ID-Sen: Incumbent M Crapo (R-1951) win in 2004 with 99%.
SC-Sen: Incumbent J DeMint (R-1951) win in 2004 with 54%.
AL-Sen: Incumbent R Shelby (R-1934) win in 2004 with 68%.
GA-Sen: Incumbent J Isakson (R-1944) win in 2004 with 58%.
UT-Sen: Incumbent R Bennett (R-1933) win in 2004 with 69%.
All the polls are open.
PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes up, and when the serie of diaries about senate end.