The Rick Perry secession talk obviously touches a nerve with folks on both sides of the political canyon. Much of the “discussion” has revolved around the audacity, the legality or the patriotism of the secession smack. How about the basic economics?
When I lived in Texas anyone who talked big without backing it up was considered “ALL HAT, NO CATTLE”. (The condition sometimes known as “alligator mouth with a hummingbird a$$”.) Maybe a sober look at the economics of all the Federal “oppression” would help the governor reassess his hat size and quit challenging the good will of the other lower 47. So, here’s a starter post. I’m guessing those with more resources can improve it and help fill in the blanks.
TEXAS SECESSION SAVES THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT $171.8 BILLION +
I don’t want to see the Lone Star state cut and run. However it’s quite possible a Texas secession could fund the entire stimulus package and boost the economy of the remaining United States of America – all the more reason Texans should put a gag on Rick Perry and all the other secessionist grandstanders. The math starts below the fold:
Imagine for more than a sound bite that Texas seceded. The huge sucking sound once described by Ross Perot would be money and jobs leaving Texas headed to parts north. Apparently Governor Perry doesn’t think the federal government creates any jobs so he might not even mind the loss but I suspect a lot of other folks would.
U.S. CENSUS DATASAVINGS TO THE U.S. TREASURY
2007 Total Federal Spending in Texas $171.8 Billion
Texas per capita income* = $19,617 X total Texas population** of 23,904,380 = $468.9 Billion
(Each citizen in Texas would have to pay 37% of every dollar earned to fund the amount of federal money spent in their state.)
* 1999 Census data
** 2007 estimate
* Stop all Social Security payments going to Texas residents. An estimated 2.4 million Texans over 65 receiving on average $1,153/month = $33.2 Billion a year (Or 33.2 billion oppression units U.S.!)
* Stop Medicare spending in Texas $20.3 Billion in ’04 if it inflated by only 3%/yr that equals another $23 Billion a year right there
* Stop the federal Medicaid match and the U.S. saves another $12.5 Billion+ per year (Those state policies that make Texas 1st in percentage of uninsured children and 1st in percentage of population uninsured sure are expensive to the rest of us.)
* Close all the U.S. military bases in Texas and move what’s needed elsewhere to the Pro America parts of America (any businesses making a living serving the troops down there?)
- DOD spending in Texas$13.2 Billion a year (OK maybe we only roll half of that to the U.S. bottom line)
* All U.S. Military contractors who would have to move out in order to stay eligible for US contracts. - Federal Military contract spending $19.4 Billion a year (bye bye “nongovernment” jobs)
* Consolidate NASA: move Houston’s Johnson Space Center functions to Florida. $3.8 Billion yearly oppression units leave Texas maybe we save half of that too. (Houston we have a problem.)
* Federal Transportation funds hit the road. Texans current federal oppression is in the neighborhood of $6 Billion a year.
* Homeland Security spending moves back “home” saving the U.S. another $300 million a year.
* The “country” of Texas will have to pick up not only border security to the South but now all the way around the state. Perry can freely address or ignore that issue.
* FAA – we’ll save tons not having to staff the airports all over Texas: DFW, Love field, Hobby, Intercontinental (Bush field), San Antonio... (somebody give us the number here)
* TSA – fund your own screeners.
* EPA – (running out of time here) but we can stop the clean up funding of the over 400 Superfund sites in Texas, while we won’t save the money we can get to the U.S. site faster.
* Education spending rolls to the Treasury another $7 Billion (We aren’t getting the bang for the buck we should down there anyway as Texas is 1st in the percentage of people over 25 without a high school diploma, 41st in high school graduation rate and 46th in SAT scores.)
* Federal Court System: That volume of capital cases (Texas #1 in death penalty executions) can drop out of our federal court system and free up the resources. Anyone’s guess on that savings.
How about that private sector?:
PRIVATE SECTOR SHOCK
If there aren’t any “real” jobs vacated in the above transition how about some likely private businesses leaving. Just start with pro sports:
Watch the exodus as the owners realize their franchises are worthless unless they can actually play in our U.S. leagues.
* Dallas Cowboys franchise current worth $1.5 Billion (Hello Oklahoma City Cowboys)
* Houston Texans franchise current worth $1.1 Billion U.S. (or $1.1 Million Pesos – you decide.)
* Rockets, Astros (didn’t they used to have a space program there?)
* Any U.S. city need an NHL team?
I’m sure a lot of bright Texans would migrate to the U.S. in a hurry (along with those ghostly government related employees included above). What would that do to the housing market down there and the housing market in the other 49 states? There is plenty of available home inventory in the U.S. but I imagine the industry could use the boost and home prices might firm up a good bit.
Sure, there could be some reverse migration. I wouldn’t miss those folks who are ready to leave this great ("oppressive") democracy. But Rick Perry, you may want to install metal detectors at the border.
OK, I’m tired. This is sad. It looks like Texas might actually have to introduce a (gasp) state income tax before this is over.