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Please begin with an informative title:

Anti-incumbent sentiment is a dangerous plaything in a year when Democrats have so many seats in Congress, but it has its upside, too.

For example, take a look at CA-44, the Riverside County-centered district where Bill Hedrick came out of what most observers thought was nowhere to come within a point or so of beating incumbent corrupt developer Ken Calvert.

The so-called smart money this year says that Calvert has raised so much money that there's just no way that Hedrick can compete with him.  But the smart money missed his success in 2008 -- could it be missing it again this year?

Yeah, Calvert has the money to buy plenty of lipstick -- but he's still putting it on a pig.  And then there's the poll.


You must enter an Intro for your Diary Entry between 300 and 1150 characters long (that's approximately 50-175 words without any html or formatting markup).

The poll was announced today by the Hedrick campaign.  It's one of those that says "if we can just get our message out, we can win."  You can take a look at it by first heading to the website, or if you dare you can go straight to the PDF.

Here's what Hedrick has to say about the poll:

Exciting news: we just got the results back from our recent poll, and I wanted to share them with you.

Once voters know where my opponent and I stand on the issues, we win!

Poll: Informed Head-to-Head

   41% Hedrick
   38% Calvert

The race is on!  Now that the media and national parties are paying attention, we need to prove that we have the grassroots support to get out our winning message.

We have set an ambitious goal of $5000 in grassroots contributions by this Friday.

Contribute $25, $50, or $100 today to show the media and national parties that we have the momentum!

We are fed up with the representation we’re getting in Washington.  41% want to replace my opponent.   I know that we can do better.

We deserve honest leadership in Washington.  We know what it will take to win in November. Our path to victory is clear. But we can’t do it without your help.

Let’s make a big showing that we’re ready to fight and win!

But, while I like what he says, I'm more interested in what the pollsters say:
February 5, 2010

To: Interested Parties
From: Ben Tulchin and Julie Lein, Tulchin Research
Re: Recent Survey Finds Congressman Ken Calvert is Vulnerablein CA-44

From high unemployment to large bonuses for Wall Street bankers, recent events have left voters angry and extremely pessimistic about the direction of the country and their state.

This discontent has created a mood that is decidedly anti-Congress and anti-incumbent.

California’s 44th Congressional district, which encompasses parts of Riverside and Orange counties, is no exception, as long-time Congressman Ken Calvert is vulnerable and faces a serious challenge from Democrat Bill Hedrick. Specifically, more voters currently say they would vote for someone else than re-elect Calvert to Congress. Furthermore, after learning more information about both candidates, they move away from Calvert and toward Bill Hedrick in large numbers.

Calvert is in Trouble

In a district that Ken Calvert has represented for 17 years, a plurality of voters already wants to see someone else represent them in Congress. In a sign of the difficulty for incumbents and Calvert in particular, less than two in five voters (38%) expresses a desire to re-elect Calvert, with a meager 14% indicating that they will definitely re-elect Calvert.  Conversely, more than two out of five voters (41%) indicated they will vote for someone else, with more than half of those voters definitely supporting another candidate (22%). With one out of five voters (22%) saying it depends on the candidate, that leaves nearly two-thirds of  voters (62%) not supporting the incumbent.

Major Shift in Support Away from Calvert and Toward Hedrick

In the horserace question, less than half of voters (49%) indicate support for Calvert, while 35% favor Democrat Bill Hedrick and 16% are undecided. Traditionally, support below 50% signals trouble for an incumbent, as is the case for Calvert. The relatively large number of undecided voters also leaves an opening for Hedrick.

With Bill Hedrick within striking distance, the 2010 Congressional race in the 44th District is gearing up to be very competitive. After voters hear more information—positive and negative—about both candidates, they move away from Calvert and toward Hedrick in significant numbers. Democrat Hedrick leads in the final vote by a 3-point margin (41% Hedrick &#8211; 38% Calvert &#8211; 21% undecided). The net 17-point shift from the initial to final vote is indicative of voter dislike of incumbent Calvert and the potential for Bill Hedrick.

While the poll gave both positive and negative information about both candidates, the survey found that voters move away from Calvert because they are greatly disturbed by his record on corruption. Specifically:

· Calvert was named one of Congress’ most corrupt members by the non-partisan group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW);

· Calvert engineered a no-bid land deal from a public agency that enriched himself and his business partners;

· Calvert has a history of using taxpayer funds for his own personal profit, including directing earmarks to increase the value of property he owned.

Voters are fed up with politics as usual, and Calvert faces an extremely challenging climate given his record of corruption and voter frustration with the status quo, which opens the door for Democrat Bill Hedrick.


From January 28 – February 1, 2010 Tulchin Research conducted a telephone survey among 400 likely November 2010 voters in California’s 44th Congressional district. The margin of error is +- 4.9 percentage points.

Before you ask -- because I know that some of you will -- search on "CA-44" or his name over the past three years to find out where he stands on the issues.  He's a good progressive.  (And he has posted here, by the way.)

Bill Hedrick would be a damn good Member of Congress.  It now looks to me like maybe he /will be a damn good Member of Congress!  Want to help make it happen?

Extended (Optional)

Originally posted to Doane Spills on Tue Feb 16, 2010 at 08:06 PM PST.

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