You must Publish this diary to make this visible to the public,
or click 'Edit Diary' to make further changes first.
Posting a Diary Entry
Daily Kos welcomes blog articles from readers, known as diaries. The Intro section to a diary should be about three paragraphs long, and is required. The body section is optional, as
is the poll, which can have 1 to 15 choices. Descriptive tags are also required to help others find your diary by subject; please don't use "cute" tags.
When you're ready, scroll down below the tags and click Save & Preview. You can edit your diary after it's published by clicking Edit Diary. Polls cannot be edited once they are published.
If this is your first time creating a Diary since the Ajax upgrade, before you enter any text below, please press Ctrl-F5 and then hold down the Shift Key and press your browser's Reload button to refresh its cache with the new script files.
ATTENTION: READ THE RULES.
One diary daily maximum.
Substantive diaries only. If you don't have at least three solid, original paragraphs, you should probably post a comment in an Open Thread.
No repetitive diaries. Take a moment to ensure your topic hasn't been blogged (you can search for Stories and Diaries
that already cover this topic), though fresh original analysis is always welcome.
Use the "Body" textbox if your diary entry is longer than three paragraphs.
Any images in your posts must be hosted by an approved image hosting service (one of: imageshack.us, photobucket.com, flickr.com, smugmug.com, allyoucanupload.com, picturetrail.com, mac.com, webshots.com, editgrid.com).
Copying and pasting entire copyrighted works is prohibited. If you do quote something, keep it brief, always provide a link to the original source, and use the <blockquote> tags to clearly identify the quoted material. Violating this rule is grounds for immediate banning.
Be civil. Do not "call out" other users by name in diary titles. Do not use profanity in diary titles. Don't write diaries whose main purpose is to deliberately inflame.
Despite some worrying poll numbers from West Virginia and Wisconsin today, overall the Senate Snapshot remains virtually identical to yesterday. The lesson is simple: don’t get too bummed, or too excited, about a couple of polls.
Senate Snapshot, September 21st
Senate Outcome Odds Chart
Once again, there is no Rassmussen-free Snapshot tonight, because the overall picture does not change if Rasmussen polls are removed from the picture. Without Rasmussen polls, the most likely outcome is still Democrats with 52 seats. Also, Democrats have a 99%+ chance at control.
Rather than taking your questions about the Senate Snapshot tonight, I’d like to hear your thoughts on what sort of targeting strategy you would employ in response to the current Senate picture. Would you focus on the first five states, Delaware through California, to lock down overall Democratic control? Would you focus on defeating the insurgent tea party candidates in place like Delaware, Nevada, and Kentucky, in an attempt to dampen Republican base enthusiasm after the elections? Would you target the closest states, Washington through New Hampshire? Supporting progressive heroes in California and Wisconsin? Pushing the envelope, and rolling the dice, by targeting the states in the dark red, to try and expand the map?
There are many different ways to approach Senate targeting given the above numbers. I would love to hear your thoughts on which approach is the most appealing.
--Polling is not a conspiracy designed to manipulate your emotions.
--This is a snapshot, not a forecast. All of the odds presented here are based on if the election were held today. It is not a prediction of future trends.
--Only campaigns within 11% or less in the snapshot that includes Rasmussen polling are listed. If a campaign isn't listed here, then it is not currently as close as any of the campaigns listed here. Delaware is listed because of all the hoopla surrounding it.
--Lisa Murkowski’s odds of victory are included in the overall GOP total. Charlie Crist’s odds are split evenly between Democrats and Republicans.
--All polls used in the averages are taken from Pollster.com.
--A complete description of the methodology behind this snapshot, along with all the research and a FAQ, can be found here.
Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 06:30 PM PDT.