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FiveThirtyEight’s model now predicts there is a 98% chance that MikeRayinBerkeley busts his ass for Democrats before November 2nd, up incrementally from 94% percent last week. Some of this high percentage can be explained by the so-called "superbowl effect" in which people who are somewhat disconnected from a long, drawn-out contest become keenly interested in the final stages of a championship game.

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However, the trend towards this kossack busting his ass (in addition to giving small donations to Orange to Blue candidates) has steadily increased owing to a variety of factors. Chief among them is that the more he cold calls at OFA events for Brown and Boxer, the less inhibited he feels, the happier he feels that he is addressing a problem rather than being overwhelmed by it, and the stronger his sense of pride that he is part of a team with the right goals and the right values. Several external factors may also be contributing, such at President Obama's more vigorous campaigning, some classic Daily Kos battles such as the Senate seat showdown in Alaska, and the knowledge that just today in California there are no less than 136 canvassing and phone banking OFA events, in addition to a 1,000,000 calling goal using the calling tool at Organizing for America Website with a really cool tallying tool reminiscent of Dean's glory days in 2004. The fact that David Plouffe, who engineered Obama's primary and general election victories, is leading this effort, may also be part of his growing confidence, in addition to blowback from GOP overreach in undisclosed corporate spending.

Indeed, most of the mitigating factors that might discourage a motivated phone-banker or canvaser, such as exhaustion, lack of exercise, only a 9 or 10% contact rate when one calls, the fact that one's partner, who totally supports him, occasionally gets pretty pissed when she stays home with the kids (especially if they're sick) while he's out phone banking, or even the fact that he wishes the current Democratic Congress had achieved more--none of these factors have had a statistically significant impact on this phone-banker and canvasser's hunger to kick GOP ass and see another raft of significant legislation pass in the next two years while tea partiers and GOP mainliners mud-wrestle furiously and sink gurgling into the sea.  In addition, he prefers doing something to helplessly watching polls go up and down.

This forecast will not need an update before now and November 2nd. On November 1st, like many other kossacks, this phone-banker has already arranged to take the day off and canvass all day, which should ensure that his ass is completely busted.

Update: THANKS for all the inspiring accounts of our work all over the country today canvassing and phone-banking, and thanks for the inspiring and insightful comments. I think I've moved to a 99% probability in terms of ass-busting. I also note that the OFA website now shows we have called or canvassed 937,300 people today, and there's a LOT of our work not included in that figure.

America, F*** Yeah!

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Originally posted to MikeRayinBerkeley on Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 09:44 AM PDT.

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