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Please begin with an informative title:

Not to get too nerdy on you this close to the big day, but the following 68 districts have something in common:

All of these, without exception, is a district in which a poll was released (either public or partisan) since October 1st showing one candidate or the other leading by three points or less.

This doesn't count other districts (IL-10 and NC-07 come to mind immediately) where there were conflicting polls just out of the range.

The lesson in all of this: it will not take much of a shift in the prevailing winds to create an inordinate amount of change in the outcome tomorrow. Lest you think that this is last-ditch attempt to rally the troops, note that I didn't say what kind of a shift could happen.

At this point, everyone is just guessing at what they think will happen tomorrow. Strangely, though, there has been a strange consensus in the pundit class that the Republicans will seize the House, gaining somewhere between 50-60 seats in the process.

Based on that exhaustive list above, I think that is actually a fairly unlikely outcome. If the winds blow in the Democratic direction tomorrow, even marginally, the math still makes it possible for the Democrats to hold the House. It would be an absolutely gob-smacking result for the national press, which has been busy drape-measuring on behalf of the GOP for weeks.

Of course, the converse is also true. If the headwind is as strong as advertised, 50-60 seats would be a blessing.

The final takeaway in all of this, based on the numbers: yeah, the GOTV thing always matters. But, this time around, it might matter just a little bit more.


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Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Nov 01, 2010 at 04:32 PM PDT.

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