Romney seemed to think that four years after Obama’s barrier-breaking win, the NAACP audience would be open to a more combative approach. He thought wrong.Rachel gets it right. The congratulatory idiotic analysis written more than one pundit that Romney expected and wanted to be booed to shore up his standing with the tea party completely misses the critical point that conservatives can't win Presidential elections by themselves. Standing up at the NAACP and declaring he doesn't care about black people might win him some votes, but so what? It loses him a lot more. It's getting to the point where Obama winning and Romney losing is not only important for the future direction of the country, but to course correct the people who think that what the tea party thinks actually matters to most Americans.
The aggressive posture ultimately became one of Mr. Romney’s selling points, particularly among conservative voters who were searching for the candidate tenacious enough to take out President Obama in the general election.Of course, keep in mind nothing short of ripping Obama's heart out and eating it raw on national TV will satisfy them.
But now, even with polls suggesting he is battling Mr. Obama to a draw at this stage of the race, Mr. Romney finds himself confronting concern that he is not nimble and aggressive enough to withstand the Democratic assault against him.
Either way, horse race polling on the 2012 election is likely to keep puzzling many political observers. Statistical noise is inherent in polling, so if the Obama-Romney contest remains close, polls will routinely tip a few points to one candidate or the other. Looking at the HuffPost Pollster chart, which is designed to smooth out much of that random variation, can help.The HuffPost Pollster chart is especially useful for comparing "all pollsters" to "removing Rasmussen and Zogby" (in my view, a better baseline).
Buckle up, polling junkies, it's going to be a bumpy ride.
There is, of course, no guarantee that things will remain as stable straight through to Election Day. But there have been some cycles – most notably 2004, which this race resembles in some ways – in which we were seeing pretty much the same numbers for weeks or even months on end.Marist poll:
I’d like to wait at least a few more days before concluding that the latest news, like the jobs report and the health care ruling, will have little net effect on the race. The news over the past few weeks has been at least a little bit more substantive than at some points earlier in the year.
But this may be one of those cycles, like in 2004, when the public is pretty locked in to their choices. If so, the threshold for what news counts as “important” in the context of the presidential race, like things that we might expect to move the numbers by at least a full percentage point in one direction or another, is going to be very high.
For arguments sake, let’s put the unemployment numbers on hold. Do people base their economic assessments more on their own financial circumstances? Are they having difficulty making ends meet? Are they worried about paying their mortgage? Or, is it a chat with friends or neighbors that shapes their views?If it were a simplistic "gas prices" or "jobs report" election, Obama would be trailing by 10 points. It's not that simple. You have to factor in just how poor a candidate Romney is, and how disliked the Republican brand AND the standard bearer are, coupled with hope for the future.
There are many factors that shape public opinion. Debate which follows news of each D.C. stat must go hand in hand with more personal indicators to paint a comprehensive picture of public opinion. This will help us understand Americans’ pessimism about current economic circumstances yet growing optimism that the worst may be over.
Obamacare: GOP moves to repeal, and then what?I will be on Daily Kos radio with David Waldman at ~9:10 ET to talk about these polls. Listen here.
Our view: Symbolic vote to dump court-approved health care reform an exercise in futility that only underscores GOP's failure to produce a reasonable alternative
The Blue Skies Netroots Radio Player
Oh, and here is yesterday's appearance.