OK

Arizona

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(D) Rich Carmona v (R) Jeff Flake

Open seat: (R) Jon Kyl retiring

This is a race that Jeff flake shouldn't be struggling in, but he is. Carmona has run a real strong race, and has this thing very competitive. Flake was probably the best recruit the GOP could had gotten. But one may say the reason why Jeff Flake may be sweating to hold this seat may not be his own fault, but the fault of the xenophobic streak over the past couple of years in Arizona. Ever since former Governor Janet Napolitano left to become Obama's Homeland Security Secretary, in coming Governor Jan Brewer and the state GOP have became very xenophobic, and anti-Latino. Starting with passing the SB1070 bill, and not to mention having the most racist county sheriff, Joe Arpaio, who is a very disgusting human being. So that fact that Flake is struggling against a candidate who has been very strong, but especially a candidate who has a Hispanic surname, is not really a surprise. Eventually Flake does hold on, and keeps this seat in the Republican column. No doubt though within the decade Arizona will become a swing state, and it's likely that Arizona can not just only vote for a Democratic nominee for the Presidency, but also elect a Democrat to the senate, just not this cycle. 2016 is the year to look out for. By that time Arizona should be a swing state by then, and also when McCain's seat will likely be open. It's days as a red state are numbered.

Prediction: Leans GOP

Flake 50 Carmona 47

Connecticut

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(D) Chris Murphy v (R) Linda McMahon

Open seat: (ID) Joe Liebermann retiring

After the primaries, McMahon jumps all over Chris Murphy with her endless pocket. Some Dems were worried that this could been a potential race that becomes a flip for the GOP. Reality kicked in and most of all the blue streak of Connecticut kicked in. Most folks have seen McMahon as being a joke and a fake, who lacks substance, and just tried to demonized her opponent in which ever way possible. One thing to point out is that Murphy is not Blumenthal, in which Blumenthal was a brand name in Connecticut for 20 years, when he ran for senate in 2010. Despite his gaffe when it came to embellishing his military service at times, he still went on to win by double digits. Murphy does not have that name recognition that Blumenthal had, so it's not a mystery why this race is a little closer than it should be. Murphy wins this race; it won't be by double digits like Blumenthal had two years ago, but Murphy still wins comfortably.

Prediction: Likely DEM

Murphy 54 McMahon 45

Florida

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(D-inc) Bill Nelson v (R) Connie Mack IV

Bill Nelson is a seasoned politician. He's one of my favorite senators. He's one of those old school Florida Democrats, similar to folks like Bob Graham, Reubin Askew
and "Walkin' Lawton" Chiles. All those folks I mention along with Nelson, are dubbed in the state as "Florida Crackers". Anglo-Saxon folks who not snowbirds, but generational Floridians with deep roots. Nelson speaks with a distinct folksy southern accent, having roots in Northern Florida in which he does very well in that part of the state. He's a great campaigner. He relates well to Floridians who've been there for generations, and new Floridians who are now calling the state home. When Mack changed his mind, and got into the race I always felt Nelson was the betting favorite, and he still is. The only thing that kept Mack in this race is the outside money. Bill started of the campaign really well. First started off with a positive, and then taking a torch to Mack's character and record. Nelson is going to win this race. The PAC's on the GOP side are throwing are everything they got at Nelson, but like Sherrod Brown in Ohio, they keep bouncing off of Bill. He looks like he's starting to run away with this race now. This will most likely be his final term he'll be 76 in 2018, hopefully this will start to prep up Kathy Castor to make her first statewide run. There's no doubt that Castor will be the best candidate to hold this seat when it becomes open in '18. Her name brings weight and runs deep in a very important part of Florida. The Tampa-St. Petersberg area. And She speaks with a distinguishable Southern accent like Bill.

Prediction: Likely DEM

Nelson 55 Mack 44

Indiana

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(D) Joe Donnelly v (R) Richard Mourdock

Open seat: (R) Dick Lugar defeated in primary

Up until a couple of weeks ago I believed that Mourdock was going to eek this one out and hold this seat in Indiana, but I'm convinced that Donnelly may score the upset come Tuesday night. Mourdock really shot himself in the foot with the "intended from God" remark, in regarding his position on abortion, in the case that a female is raped. Indiana Republicans usually have no problems strolling into the United States Senate, with the exception of Evan Bayh who had crossover appeal. You have alot of people in Indiana who are erked at the fact that Mourdock knocked off Richard Lugar in the primary. Donnelly has done a great job in going after those "Lugar Republicans" voters in Indiana. This will be a huge black eye for the GOP if they lose this seat, a seat that should had been a easy hold. I don't know how Donelley will be if he's elected senator. My only hope is that he doesn't become the new Ben Nelson in the Democratic caucus in the senate. I don't even think Bayh was as bad as Nelson. This race depends on how many Republicans will cross over, and vote for Donnelly in a state come Tuesday, as soon as the polls closes, will be called for Romney, and the Governorship for Mike Pence. Like I said Evan Bayh probably the only Dem as of recently who had statewide appeal and can win in Indiana, with Republicans on top of the ballot. Also the fact there is a Libertarian candidate on the ballot does not bode well for Mourdock. So folks who can't see themselves voting for Donnelly, but don't want to vote for Mourdock too, may very well go for the Libertarian. My hunch is Donnelly holds on and pulls the upset of the night, but very much a toss-up still giving Indiana's political leaning. A pickup in Indiana would be huge to offset a potential loss in North Dakota, and maybe Montana. also it will be a black eye to senate GOP.

Prediction: Lean DEM Takeover

Donnelly 49 Mourdock 47

Massachusetts

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(D) Elizabeth Warren v (R-inc) Scott Brown

Elizabeth Warren is well on her way to become the next United States Senator from Massachusetts, and most of all the first woman elected from the state. Which will be a first for at least a handfull of states on Tuesday. Brown won a shocking upset in a January 2010 special electron to fill the remaining term after the passing of the late Ted Kennedy. Martha Coakley the Attorney General of Massachusetts, was a shoe in for this seat, but ran a very flawed campaign, and her not taking it serious, was a huge factor to Brown pulling the upset. Throughout most of this year it's has neck and neck between the two, some in Dem circles were even growing worried about the race, but since September, Warren started to pull away without looking back, as Massachusetts blue lean kicked. It was going to be hard from Scott Brown to win this in a presidential year, he couldn't run on his record, so he tried to bring up Warren for lying about her partial Native-American heritage, when the woman is originally from Oklahoma which wouldn't be a surprise. Trying to insinuate that she benefited from some type of affirmative action. To trying to muddy her record when it came to an asbestos lawsuit in which she represented the victims of that case. That plus the political DNA of the state has put Warren poised to flip this seat.

Prediction: Likely DEM Takeover

Warren 52 Brown 46

Michigan

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(D-inc) Debbie Stabenow v (R) Pete Hoesktra

Some thought after the industrial Midwest took a hard right turn in 2010 that Debbie Stabenow would be vulnerable. At it looked like it would be a tough race with early polls showed Hoesktra right on her heels within striking distance. Then Super Bowl Sunday 2012 came, and Hoesktra destroyed any chance he at flip this seat when he released this ad in the Michigan markets. It didn't take long for it to backfire in his face. from the gecko Republicans were never going to win this seat in Michigan, especially in a Presidential year. Stabenow is on track to win a third term. If she was winning by 20 plus I would have this as a solid or safe hold, but she most likely is going to win by high teens.

Prediction: Likely DEM

Stabenow 56 Hoekstra 42

Missouri

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(D-inc) Claire McCaskill v (R) Todd Akin

Claire McCaskill was facing a daunting task for re-election. when she narrowly defeated Jim Talent, most folks knew that her re-election bid was not going to be a cake walk. Especially the hard right turn Missouri took in 2010. But as we see time and time again, the GOP can't control their primaries for state wide races, as primary folks keep nominating candidates that are unfit for the general election. That has been McCaskill saving grace, who cleverly boosted Todd Akin when she made those ad buys against the three primary candidates in that last weekend before the primary back in August. surely right after winning the primary Akin who suffers from diarrhea of the mouth, couldn't help him self, with his now infamous abortion gaffe. also continually stepping in it by referring to McCaskill as a "wildcat let out of the cage", after their first debate. This was a seat that was likely in the GOP bag. This contest in Missouri, and the one in Indiana, is just a statement of how a hopeful senate cycle, where it looked like they could take the senate, at least in this cycle,has completely gone up in flames. GOP senate primaries are doubt the gift that keeps on giving, if your'e name is Harry Reid, Chuck Schumer, and especially if your'e Barack Obama. Who probably won't have to deal with a GOP controll senate, if they keep electing flaw nominees for the general. Don't expect it to stop in 2014, or afterward.

Prediction: Leans DEM

McCaskill 52 Akin 46

Montana

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(D-inc) Jon Tester v (R) Denny Rehberg

Just like in 2006 when Tester eked out a win over Conrad Burns, six years later he's in for another one in 2012. We probably won know the result of the race right on election night. This race is like a coin flip and can go either way. If I had a hunch, I think the way Tester has been able to portray Rehberg I give the slightest edge to him. It also helps Tester that Steve Bullock is running a strong race for Governor on top of the ticket. Despite the fact the Mitt Romney will win the state. I don't think no one can say for sure who could win this race, but if I had to guess I 'll Tester ekes I the same margin of victory he did in 2006. Give Jon Tester credit, he's ran a damn good flawless campaign, sweeping the state’s newspaper endorsements including in Rehberg’s hometown of Billings. Plus you got a Libertarian candidate lingering in single digits that could sway the outcome. Rehberg hasn’t closed the deal, because it's hard to beat an incumbent who fits his state like a glove and comes off as more likable. I'll go on a limb and say Tester by 1, just like in '06.

Prediction: Toss-Up/Barely DEM

Tester 49 Rehberg 48

Nevada

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(D) Shelly Berkley v (R-inc) Dean Heller

After Massachusetts, this is the best pickup opportunity for Democrats. Harry Reid has built a very well oiled GOTV machine over the last decade, and it what saved him in 2010. Thus the Democratic party in Nevada have tremendously benefited from that as it sound provided a sound structure. They control almost every statewide office and both legislative chamber. the Nevada GOP is a mess structure wise due in part to Ron Paul supporters during the primaries. Also historically polling understate Democrats, especially when it come to Hispanic voters. All the polls in 2010 showed Reid losing to Sharon Angle except for one. Mark Mellman was the only one to called the race right for Reid, and it's doing the same for Berkley. The Reid machine with Obama on top of the ticket is the reason I believe Berkley will win this race. She's going to run up the score in Clark County, but most important she'll have to cut into Dean Heller's support just enough in Washoe county. throughout the campaign she's been pretty much living in Washoe County. She does that, she'll win.

Prediction: Toss-Up/Slight DEM

Berkley 48 Heller 46

North Dakota

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(D) Heidi Heitkamp v (R) Rick Berg

Open Seat: (D) Kent Conrad retiring

I don't know if we an ask more of Heitkamp. She's running the best race she can as a Democrat running for a open senate seat, in a state that Mitt Romney is going to win handily. This will be the only competitive race in North Dakota come Tuesday night. The state fundamental favor Berg in a big way, yet despite that Heitkamp is more likable, and more popular than him. I feel Berg has the edge in this race, but I won't be at all surprise if Heitkamp pulls the upset and hold this seat, which I'm hoping she does. But something tells me Berg will probably pulls this one out not that much. 538 has Berg by 6, but I think it'll be tighter than that.

Prediction: Leans GOP

Berg 49 Heitkamp 47

Ohio

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(D-inc) Sherrod Brown v (R) Josh Mandel

Sherrod Brown has been the most targeted incumbent senator this cycle. With nearly 30 millions dollars of dark dirty money coming from GOP affiliated super-PAC's. With all that money spent on him, Sherrod Brown is poised to win another term. His populism has really been favored upon by Ohioans, he's been touting his record on the auto bailout which one out of every eight jobs in Ohio is connected to the auto industry, as well as his record on free trade, and China's manipulation win it's come to it's currency. Mandel on the other hand has shown himself to be a flawed candidate, despite all the dark money supporting him, he lacks substance, and has shown himself to be on the wrong economic issues concerning Ohio. He's simply not ready for the big leagues.

Prediction: Likely DEM

Brown 53 Mandel Brown 45

Pennsylvania

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(D-inc) Bob Casey Jr. v (R) Tom Smith

Bob Casey in my opinion was never going to be endangered for his first reelection bid. for a moment there it look like Casey was in a compromising positions when Smith's deep pockets begin to have a impact in this race. Also alot of the polling in Pennsylvania has been somewhat suspect. Bob Casey has started to regain the cushion he had at the beginning of the race. He has cross over appeal,and will do better in some of the rural counties compared to Obama. Democrats in Pennsylvania are looking at a sweep on their ticket from top to bottom. Especially with Kathleen Kane poised to be the first women, and Democrat elected as Attorney General. Also Casey is going to be the first Democrat to be reelected in Pennsylvania since 1962, which was Joe Clark, late former Senator and former Mayor of Philly.

Prediction: Likely DEM

Casey 55 Smith 44

Virginia

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(D) Tim Kaine v (R) George Allen

Open seat: (D) Jim Webb retiring

Tim Kaine has the inside track in this race. At first it look like this maybe the barn burner out of all the senate races this cycle. Kaine through out the cycle Kaine has ran a very good campaign in a state that Obama I believe will win. Kaine has cross over appeal, and Allen doesn't. He a wash up, whose trying to get his old job back, and be relevant again. That one word he uttered back in 2006 officially killed his political career. Tim Kaine is likely to be the next senator from the Commonwealth.

Prediction: Leans DEM

Kaine 51 Allen 47

Wisconsin

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(D) Tammy Baldwin v (R) Tommy Thompson

Open seat: (D) Herb Kohl retiring

Conventional wisdom would say that a popular four term Governor running against a candidate making their first statewide run for a open US Senate seat, the Governor would win right? Well wrong. Alot of folks were willing to write this race off, when Thompson emerge from the GOP primary, Democrats jumped all over him and high lighting his record when he served as HHS Secretary in George W. Bush cabinet. Also later to find out that the reason it took long for Thompson to go on air and respond, was because the primary really bruised him up, and left him "broke". Baldwin has come from behind since mid-September, and it looks like she'll hang on as Thompson looks to be closing in. The fact that Democrats kept hitting Thompson once the primary was over, may have doe enough damage, and the cake is pretty much baked in already. It's not enough time for Thompson to make up the damage that's been done. Also to mention he ran a shit campaign. Baldwin holds on, and will become the first woman elected to the US Senate from the state of Wisconsin, not to mention the first openly gay senator to be elected.

Prediction: Leans DEM

Baldwin 51 Thompson 48

DEM Gains: Nevada, Indiana, Massachusetts, Maine (King likely caucus with Dems, therefore viewed as a gain)

GOP Gains: Nebraska, North Dakota

2013-14 Makeup DEM 55 GOP 45

Safe Democrat Holds

California: Feinstein
Delaware: Carper
Hawaii: Hirono
Maryland: Cardin
Minnesota: Klobuchar
New Jersey: Menendez
New Mexico: Heinrich
New York: Gillibrand  
Rhode Island: Whitehouse
Washington: Cantwell
West Virginia: Manchin
Vermont: Sanders

Safe Republican Holds

Mississippi: Wicker
Tennessee: Corker
Texas: Cruz
Utah: Hatch
Wyoming: Barrasso

Originally posted to BKGyptian89 on Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 08:16 PM PST.

Also republished by Headwaters.

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