OK

Elizabeth Warren, candidate for the U.S. Senate in Massachusetts, addresses the second session of the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina September 5, 2012.  REUTERS/Jason Reed
Elizabeth Warren's keynote at the Democratic National Convention paying dividends.
I'll say it—I've never been one to worry about the Massachusetts Senate race for one simple reason: As I wrote yesterday, in highly partisan states, the undecideds tend to break heavily for the candidate who best reflects the state's political makeup.

In other words, Massachusetts is Indigo Blue, and unless accidental incumbent Republican Sen. Scott Brown is sitting above 50 percent, the undecideds should break against him.

Luckily, we don't have to wait until Election Day to test my theory, as four new polls of the race this week show Democratic superstar Elizabeth Warren surging past the incumbent. The trendlines for each poll are included in the parentheses.

Goal ThermometerKimball is a GOP consultancy with no polling track record that I could discern, but they also provide the best trendlines—the first poll was conducted immediately before the GOP convention, the second one immediately after the Democratic one. The trend is unanimously and significantly in Warren's favor. And with Brown languishing in the mid-40s, it's hard to see how he scores enough of the undecided voter pool to get reelected.

Much of the improvement comes from Democratic voters who decided that, hey, perhaps they won't be best served by helping Mitch McConnell get the Senate majority. PPP:

Warren's gaining because Democratic voters are coming back into the fold. Last month she led only 73-20 with Democrats. Now she's up 81-13. That explains basically the entire difference between the two polls. There are plenty of Democrats who like Scott Brown- 29% approve of him- but fewer are now willing to vote for him. That's probably because of another finding on our poll- 53% of voters want Democrats to have control of the Senate compared to only 36% who want Republicans in charge. More and more Democrats who may like Brown are shifting to Warren because they don't like the prospect of a GOP controlled Senate.
There was much ado made last week about a change in Warren's message as people panicked over the previous round of polling. That looks unwarranted and overly reactive, as these numbers were taken before her new media campaign hit the airwaves. Still, I'm not complaining. Her new ads are good:
Please donate $3 to Elizabeth Warren on ActBlue.

Originally posted to kos on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 09:41 AM PDT.

Also republished by Massachusetts Kosmopolitans and Daily Kos.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.